Georgia positivity rate drops below 10% for first time in months

ATLANTA — This week, Georgia’s COVID-19 test positivity rate dropped below ten percent, a first since early July.

But experts warn the trend should continue downward for weeks on end, as we look at the figure to help guide public health decisions.

At 9.9%, the PCR positivity rate represents a key data point often used to guide important re-opening decisions. The data is tied to transmission trends, representing the amount of positive tests from the total of tests taken in a community. Case rate tells us how transmission is going, and percent positive reflects how much the case rate is an undercount of a current situation, experts explain.

“Yes very exciting to see that even on a cumulative level, we’re still seeing that rate come below 10 percent,” said data analyst Dr. Amber Schmidtke.

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But Schmidtke reminds there’s another threshold communities look towards as a goal post, and not a finish line.

“Ideally we want it to be at or below 5%,” said Schmidtke. “The higher you are away from 5%, the more cases you might be missing. And so it’s more of an undercount (of cases) the further away from 5% that you get.”

That data point was set by the World Health Organization over the summer as a guide for phased re-opening.

“Certain jurisdictions in Georgia are following that. Some are not,” Schmidtke said. “It’s sort of a patchwork system..”

Schmidtke, a former Mercer University professor and Georgia DPH data task force member, also looked ahead to how new testing methods will impact the way we value and use the PCR positivity rate data.

The positivity rate loses value with less testing, a trend seen in Georgia. As the state begins the release of 3 million highly-anticipated rapid antigen tests by the end of the year, the way we use the positivity rate to guide us will also change.

“As that test gains in popularity, you may see that the PCR test loses in popularity,” Schmidtke said. " And so when that happens the PCR positivity rate also sort of loses its value. So it’s an important metric for now. I’m not sure how important a metric it’s going to be in the future."

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Cox Media Group