Warnock-Walker in dead heat, Kemp leads Abrams in final poll conducted by AJC and UGA

ATLANTA — The Atlanta Journal-Constitution and University of Georgia released on Monday their final poll ahead of Election Day for the midterms.

Republican Gov. Brian Kemp leads Democratic challenger Stacey Abrams in the poll, 51% to 44%. Libertarian Shane Hazel polled at 2%. Earlier this month, a previous poll had Kemp 10-points ahead of Abrams.

The race for U.S. Senate between Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican challenger Herschel Walker meanwhile remains in a dead heat. Walker leads Warnock, 46-45%, within the poll’s 3.1% margin of error. Libertarian Chase Oliver polled at 5%.

With no candidate showing a strong lead, the poll indicates what many have predicted for months: that the U.S. Senate race is likely heading for a Dec. 6 runoff.

The poll also shows how a split-ticket dynamic continues to be a factor. The latest poll indicated 6% of Kemp supports would back Warnock with their votes.


The poll began collecting responses on Oct. 16, the day before early voting began in Georgia. As of Monday, more than 1.5 million Georgians have early voted, which has smashed previous midterm records.


UGA conducted the poll between Oct. 16-27. The School of Public and International Affairs Survey Research Center randomly drew 1,022 Georgians who are registered and likely to vote in the Nov. 8 election. More about the methodology can be read here.

Governor’s Race

  • Kemp (R): 51%
  • Abrams (D): 44%
  • Hazel (L): 2%
  • Undecided: 3%
  • Margin of error: 3.1%

U.S. Senate Race

  • Walker (R): 46%
  • Warnock (D): 45%
  • Oliver (L): 5%
  • Undecided: 5%
  • Margin of error: 3.1%

Lt. Governor

  • Jones (R): 47%
  • Bailey (D): 39%
  • Graham (L): 6%
  • Undecided: 9%

Secretary of State

  • Raffensperger (R): 48%
  • Nguyen (D): 38%
  • Metz (L): 6%
  • Undecided: 8%

Attorney General

  • Carr (R): 49%
  • Jordan (D): 42%
  • Cowen (L): 3%
  • Undecided: 6%

[SIGN UP: WSB-TV Daily Headlines Newsletter]

Comments on this article