AJC poll shows possible split-ticket dynamic growing in Georgia governor, Senate races

ATLANTA — A new poll from Channel 2′s partners at the Atlanta Journal-Constitution gives insight into what Georgia voters are thinking about the governor and U.S. Senate races.

The poll shows a split-ticket dynamic growing among potential voters.

In the governor’s race, the poll showed Gov. Brian Kemp leading with 48% over Democratic challenger Stacey Abrams’s 43%. Kemp and Abrams polled close with independent voters with Kemp having slight 33%-30% edge. About 7% of voters in the poll were undecided.

“His lead has declined. Where it’s most critically important, he was, in the last sample we saw, up 17% among independents and non-aligned partisan voters. That number shrunk, he still leads there. But that’s that critical gap. That’s those numbers of people who decide the election,” Channel 2 political analyst Bill Crane said.

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In the U.S. Senate race, Sen. Raphael Warnock leads with 46% over Republican challenger Herschel Walker’s 43%. The poll shows Warnock with a stronger lead among independent voters, 38% to 27% over Walker.

About 3% of voters indicated in the poll they would support Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver. About 8% say they’re still undecided.

“The Libertarian actually pulling more than three percentage points and actual votes, makes it very possible for us to have a US Senate runoff. You go into the race 35, 40% on either side, and then that’s 17 to 20% in the middle of deciding. Libertarians don’t come from Democrats. They come out on the Republican side. So that makes it more likely if you have 3, 4 or 5% libertarian winning in a tight race that you’re going to have a US Senate runoff,” Crane said.


Channel 2 Action News is working to get reaction from each of the candidates about the new poll released Wednesday.

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution conducted the poll with the University of Georgia’s School of Policy and International Affairs. The poll asked 902 likely voters from July 14-22 a series of questions regarding both races. The poll has a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points.

The poll asked voters their views about abortion, former President Donald Trump and the Jan. 6 committee hearings, economy and President Biden’s approval ratings. The poll also asked whether denial about the 2020 election results would influence their votes.

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution will release those poll figures throughout the week.

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