BELGRADE, Serbia — Long lines of voters formed outside polling stations across Serbia on Sunday for a parliamentary election that is seen as a showdown between the Balkan country's strongman leader Aleksandar Vucic and a diverse movement of university students who have led protests against him for almost two years.
Though Serbia's 6.4 million voters get to choose from 18 parties hoping to enter the 250-member Parliament, the election has taken shape as a referendum between Vucic's right-wing Serbian Progressive Party and the youth-backed Students' List.
The main contenders are believed to be polling neck-and-neck, making Sunday's election the most uncertain in recent years. Turnout is expected to be high and could push most smaller parties below the 3% threshold needed to make it into the assembly.
While the increasingly authoritarian Vucic has routinely outplayed Serbia's fractured opposition in the past, the leaderless youth movement has proved to be a tough opponent that rattled his firm grip on power in Serbia like no one else could in the 14 years since his party took office.
A students' victory likely would resonate beyond Serbia as countries across Europe face youth and student protests.
Long lines form at polling places
Voters queued at polling places around the country early Sunday as local election monitors said turnout in the first three hours of voting was more than a double what it had been in the last parliamentary election in 2023.
The state election commission is yet to release its first report, but the student movement on its website dubbed the long lines of voters across the country “queues of hope.”
In the capital, Belgrade, Vucic stood alongside his wife for nearly two hours before casting his ballot, and later told reporters that he hopes for a peaceful election day and that he and his party will respect the election result.
“The will of the people is the will of God: vox populi, vox dei,” Vucic said. “If we lose, we will recognize the electoral will. If we win, no one will take it away from us.”
Vucic said his camp will announce reliable projections about three hours after polls close at 8 p.m. local time. Asked about whether the apparently high turnout means people want change, he said: “Let’s wait for the result.”
After casting his ballot in the northern Serbian city of Novi Sad, Ilija Srdanovic, a physician who is the first of 250 candidates for the youth movement, said the long lines heralded "record turnout in Serbia’s recent history.”
“I hope that this day will pass in a democratic atmosphere and in peace and that we will legitimately choose a new government in Serbia,” Srdanovic said.
Opponents of Vucic as well as some independent monitoring groups have warned of potential irregularities in the voting process.
Asked about whether voters should gather outside polling stations in the evening to “guard ballots,” Srdanovic said that “this evening, when we present our results, we will give recommendations what to do next.”
At a polling station in Belgrade, voter Jovan Mitrovic said he hopes that “everything goes peacefully and that everything finishes nicely,” and that "the dawn finally rises in this country after many years.”
The vote is closely watched in the EU
Recent elections have been marred by irregularities and the European Union is watching closely the conduct of Sunday's vote in a candidate nation for the bloc's membership.
Both international and local election monitors already have expressed concern about the safety and fairness of an election campaign marked by detentions, near-total government control over the media and reports of surveillance and cyberattacks against activists.
Local elections earlier this year in 10 municipalities in Serbia saw violent attacks on journalists and activists. The previous parliamentary vote in 2023 was followed by opposition protests alleging fraud.
Vucic wants to return as prime minister
If his SNS party wins the most votes, Vucic will become the prime minister after serving two near-full terms as president. He resigned the presidency last month to lead the campaign.
The populists' popularity has eroded since 16 people were killed two years ago when a concrete canopy collapsed at a train station in Serbia's north, setting off a wave of youth protests that demanded accountability for the disaster and justice for the victims.
The anger reflected widespread accusations of high-level corruption and cronyism. Protesters said that rampant graft led to negligence during renovation work at the Novi Sad station, and eventually to the canopy collapse.
Despite the protests, Vucic retains considerable support among Serbia's voters. Admirers view him as a capable leader who can steer the nation through global uncertainties — the image that was carefully crafted by the mainstream media.
Students' List is a novelty in Serbia
The newly formed Students' List movement differs from any of the political organizations in Serbia. It is shaped by university students but none of them are actually on the list. Instead, the candidates are little-known experts, athletes, farmers and artists.
This approach was meant to counter Vucic's one-man rule and restore a sense of community and solidarity. The “we know how” message during the campaign promised a non-partisan effort to rebuild Serbia's economy and democracy after a change of government.
With their youthful energy, the students have attracted voters who are disillusioned with local politicians. Vilified by pro-government media, students have cycled and walked through the country to reach voters in rural areas — Vucic's traditional strongholds.
The outcome is uncertain
Election surveys have come up with varied results while both camps say they are ahead. Some analysts fear postelection instability in case of a close result.
Vucic has said that his side would concede defeat if it lost the vote. But he has also warned that any protests that might erupt to claim fraud in case of his party's triumph would be immediately quashed.
The state election commission is not expected to release the official tally before Monday.
Magda Anastasijevic, the Eastern Europe analyst for the conflict monitor ACLED, said that electoral violence has been on the rise in Serbia recently, and could escalate, "particularly if the results are disputed."
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