LOS ANGELES — To become California’s next governor, Republican Steve Hilton must conjure up a feat of political wizardry, the equivalent of pulling voters out of thin air in a state that hasn’t elected a Republican to any statewide office in two decades.
“I’ve never said it’s going to be easy,” Hilton said in an interview with The Associated Press. “It’s obviously an uphill battle. I still see this as a winnable race.”
With mail ballots scheduled to arrive at homes in early October, the former Fox News commentator is angling to pull off what would be one of the great upsets in California record books against Democrat Xavier Becerra. Aligned against him in the heavily Democratic state are the weight of recent history, a national electorate that has soured on President Donald Trump and, perhaps inescapably, basic math.
Any Republican starts at a disadvantage. Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by a staggering 4.6 million voters, a margin approaching 2-to-1 statewide. Trump — who has endorsed Hilton's candidacy — is widely loathed outside his conservative base in a state the president often depicts as representing all that is wrong in America.
“I like Steve a lot, but the math is very hard,” says GOP consultant Mike Murphy, who advised the last Republican to hold the office, former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger. He was elected to his second term in 2006.
“I think the most relevant equation is how many cases of beer you have to drink to be drunk enough to think it’s doable in this election cycle with the Trump dynamic and the registration advantage the Democrats have,” Murphy wrote in an email. “My model starts at four cases.”
A Democratic reckoning that has never come
For years, Republicans envisioned that one day the state’s Democratic ribs would crack, as voters faithful to the brand grew weary of wallet-sapping taxes, the nation’s top gas prices, an unchecked homeless crisis and home prices and rents that drain family budgets.
“We will win because the argument for change is irresistible,” the Britain-born Hilton says.
To defeat Becerra, Hilton will need to upend what has become a familiar pattern in California general elections. Frequently, Democratic statewide candidates pull in roughly 60% of the vote on Election Day. Rival Republicans, around 40%.
Part of Hilton's challenge is overcoming the baked-in notion that California's political DNA is immutable.
“We just need to overcome the sense that after 20 years of one party running everything, it is actually possible to get change. That’s the biggest thing I think we’re fighting against,” Hilton said.
He repeated that message again during a Wednesday debate on CNN, the only television matchup scheduled for the general election.
In his pursuit of a breakthrough, Hilton has anchored his campaign to making California more affordable, including bringing gas prices down to $3 a gallon. Yet he doesn’t appear to be gaining the traction he needs to catch the Democrat. A September poll conducted by the University of California, Berkeley, Institute of Governmental Studies found that Becerra had a sizable lead over Hilton.
Some of his proposals are clearly crafted to snag voters' attention, even if it is not clear how some would clear a Democratic-controlled legislature or other regulatory hurdles. Among them: cut in half residents' utility bills, now among the nation's highest; eliminate state income taxes on the first $150,000 in earnings; and abolish the much-maligned Department of Motor Vehicles.
He believes about a quarter of the vote is up for grabs, including people who have voted for Democrats but aren't rigidly faithful to the party — largely working-class voters and those without a college education. He sees room to pick up more votes among Latinos and women, too. And he will need a heroic turnout from Republicans.
At the same time, he has been campaigning in the Los Angeles area — the state’s Democratic nucleus, where statewide elections can be won or lost depending on turnout.
Becerra argues that Hilton will be little more than another loyalist for the Trump administration, imposing the president's conservative agenda in California.
Fewer competitive races in a polarized nation
The number of truly competitive races nationwide has dwindled as many states veer to the political left or right. Up until the late 1980s, California was for many years a reliable win for the GOP in presidential elections. But a growing immigrant population and a shifting economy — including the collapse of the defense industry and the rise of Silicon Valley — transformed the state and its voting patterns.
Bedrock issues that define the California electorate — including widespread support for abortion rights and environmental protection — could make it difficult for some voters to consider backing a GOP candidate, especially in the Trump era.
After months of turmoil with a large field in the June primary election, the contest to succeed the outgoing Newsom has settled into a stolid affair. With numbers on his side, Becerra’s low-key campaign is an acknowledgment that if he avoids mistakes, he is likely to get the job.
Still, polling conducted in early September by the Public Policy Institute of California found about half of voters think the state is moving in the wrong direction while a majority think economic conditions will be bad over the next year.
California — where Democrats hold every statewide office and dominate the legislature — has one of the nation’s highest unemployment rates. Its gas prices are the highest in the nation, and its utility prices near the top nationally. Home prices often soar into the seven digits. After decades of meteoric growth, the population has essentially flatlined, with California expected to lose a congressional seat as states like Florida and Texas grow at a faster pace.
One Republican who got close in recent years is Lanhee Chen, who picked up nearly 45% of the vote in his 2022 race for state controller. For Hilton to be successful “he has to turn it into a referendum on one-party governance,” Chen said.
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