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Beyond The Forecast with David Chandley

Posted: 11:16 a.m. Monday, March 26, 2012

Surprising Spring-Summer Connection 

March 2012-A Warm one
March 2012-A Warm one

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These stats are surprising photo
These stats are surprising

By David Chandley

So far March 2012 has been the warmest on record, remember that spring of 80 plus days last week, and the forecast calls for that trend continue the rest of the month. So the question on the street is: "If it's this hot now, what will be the summer be like?"

After digging up the numbers, that answer might surprise you. Hear this: there is no connection between a hot March and a hot summer. In fact, crunching the numbers, one could surmise that a hot March leads to a mild to cooler than average summer.

Check out this graphic that tells the story. Here are the top 4 warmest year's for March (data from March 1 to march 24) and then what happened the following June, July and August.  In March 1921 Atlanta was 9.9 degrees above average, but only .2 degrees above average in the summer. Interestingly, March 1894 and 1997 gave way to below average temps in the following summers.

Of the data collected, not one of the warmest month of March gave way to a summer that was ranked in the 50 hottest summers on record.

So what do these numbers say? Yes there will be hot days in June, July and August this year, but the likelihood of a blistering summer with heat topping 100 degrees is unlikely. I have said all along, I expect a "normal" Georgia summer for metro Atlanta, something we have not seen in several years. I expect the return of the late day and early evening random t-storms with hot and humid days, and warm and muggy nights, but nothing extreme.

Peace.

David Chandley

About David Chandley

David Chandley, AMS certified meteorologist, appears on Channel 2 Action News at 5 p.m. Monday through Friday and is involved in team coverage whenever severe weather breaks.

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