ATLANTA -- WSB-TV Channel 2 meteorologist David Chandley will be blogging about items of interest on a regular basis. Check back here often to read David's blog. If you have a question or comment for David just log on below (it's free!) and enter your question or comment.

Tuesday November 3

2009 Tropical Scorecard:

Officially the tropical season for the Atlantic Basin (including the Gulf of Mexico) ends on November 30th. However, it appears that weather patterns due to a strengthening El Nino, we can put a lid on a very quiet season. There is always the possibility of a storm spinning up in the southern Gulf or Caribbean Sea in November, but it is highly unlikely of any storm affecting the U.S.

By the numbers: 9 named storms, two hurricanes, but both of those hurricanes (Bill and Fred) were major hurricanes (Cat 3+). This is the lowest total since 1997 when there were only 7 named storms. The last time the basin had only hurricanes was back in 1982. Only one storm hit the U.S. coastline, tropical storm Claudette came ashore at Fort Walton Beach, FL in August causing no damage.

The 2009 predictions fell short;

2009 National Hurricane Center Prediction Colorado State Univ. Prediction: Named Storms: 9 9-14 12 Hurricanes: 2 4-7 6 Major Hurricanes: 2 1-3 2

I will have a final update at the end of the month. Peace.

Monday November 2

A break from the rain and a word on the Dawgs.

Finally a time to catch our breath! We just wrapped up the second wettest October on record and many are still reeling from the effects of the great flood of September. It appears the next week will be very quiet weather-wise as the active branch of the southern jet stream has phased with the northern branch cutting off the wet flow from the Pacific.

Early indications are the first week of November will be more like the weather we are supposed to get in October, mild and dry. On average, Atlanta’s first freeze should fall into this week, and although it will be cool at night, freezing temps will not be found. You have to go all the way back to August before we find a week of dry weather, so enjoy the next 7 days. As stated before, with the El Nino pattern in place more wet weather is ahead.

As a member of Bulldog Nation, please accept my apology for our performance on Saturday against the Florida Gators. And please Coach Richt, stop changing the colors of our pants and helmets. I am old school and want to see the red hats and silver britches. Peace.

Monday October 26

A "normal" rain will produce minor flooding..get used to it.

Once again metro Atlanta finds itself under a flood watch on Tuesday into Wednesday morning. I am afraid this is now the “new normal”. Our clay soil holds water for a long time, so additional rainfall creates problems with rapid run off. This time of year the evaporation rate decreases and the amount of ground water needed for plants and trees also decreases, so the soil remains saturated longer.

As we enter the winter months, I am sure we will see plenty of flood watches. Right now the guidance for a watch for North Georgia is 2-3 inches of rain over a 6 hour period. No doubt we will see many rain events that fall under this criteria. I don’t expect “epic” floods, but nuisance flooding will be commonplace.

Remember this Saturday to turn your clocks back one hour as we return to standard time at 2am on Sunday. Hey you gain an hours sleep, so you will be well rested for church on Sunday..Peace.

Wednesday October 21

It's getting cooler and darker day by day.

If you have noticed its getting cooler and darker earlier day by day, you are very perceptive. As we lumber toward the winter solstice (Dec. 21st) the hours of daylight diminish and the average temperatures are retreating. You will especially feel it over the next 10 days.

By November 1st, we return to Eastern Standard Time (fall-back one hour) and that means the sun will set on that day at 5:45pm. Ouch! Also, by the end of the month the average high and low temperature will drop a few degrees to 68 for high and 48 for low. That’s getting chilly.

With the wet cool weather, the fall colors are still very muted and holding a green tint much longer than the previous Octobers. Check out our leaf watching page here on the website for places to go this weekend. Peace.

Monday October 19

Cold snap is the just the beginning, El Nino rules!

I am afraid our early October chill is just a sneak preview of wild changeable weather ahead this Fall and Winter for metro Atlanta and North Georgia. We are very much in an El Nino pattern and that spells drastic weather events for the next several months.

Recently I attended a local AMS (American Meteorological Society) meeting where Dr. Hyemi Kim and Dr. Peter Webster of Georgia Tech, presented their research on the effects of a Central Pacific El Nino vs. an Eastern Pacific El Nino on the tropical season. But with the tropical season almost behind us, it ends on November 30th, I wanted to know what type of winter season we will have with a Central Pacific El Nino in place. I will be working on that research in the coming days.

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PHOTOS: El Nino and Winter
David Chandley Talks About The Effect El Nino Will Have On Our Weather

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Here is what I do know, when there is an El Nino in place, these things happen when it comes to North Georgia’s weather; 1) In late fall, we have an outbreak of severe weather, including tornadoes. 2) We have below normal winter temperatures for the season, especially the high temperature. We may not get record cold with bone chilling readings in the single digits, but the clouds and rain keep the highs from reaching their normal levels and that in turn makes it colder than the average. 3) Our ice storm risk goes up in January and February; the combination of abundant low level moisture and shallow cold air is a perfect recipe for a southern ice storm. 4) As El Nino continues into the spring, the threat of damaging spring storms also increases.

Stay tuned for some wild weather. Peace.

Thursday October 15

Lake Lanier is FULL, now what??

So Georgia’s largest lake is above full pool, what’s next for Lake Lanier? The water wars between Georgia/Alabama/Florida will continue and the 3 year deadline imposed by a Federal judge to work it all out will quickly arrive. I have done many stories at the Lake during the drought and it sure was wonderful to see all those barren spots covered by the blue water.

Over the next several months, Lanier will perform its original purpose, flood control. The Army Corps of Engineers will hold water in the lake to protect the interests of the downstream Chattahoochee. While the Lake will remain above full pool, a level of 1073’ poses few problems for those that use the lake. When the level tops 1074’, some boat ramps will close and private docks would be affected. Official flood stage at Lanier is 1085’ so there is plenty of room for additional water. Keep in mind, it takes much more water to make the level rise when its full, compared to when the level is very low.

Bottom line is Lanier’s high level is not nearly the issue that a low level is, now its up to water managers, county and state officials to work out a plan, we will keep you updated. Peace.

Friday October 2

A soaking sun, what I know, and what I learned.

How about this…a weekend with no rain!!!!! It has been month since the radar has been quiet on Saturday and Sunday.

Here is what I am looking forward to and working on..leaf viewing in the North Georgia mountains. The early forecast is for the color to be muted due to the rain and cooler late summer/early fall temps. The flip side is that the color show will last longer than the past few seasons. Right now a little color showing up at Black Rock Mountain State Park in Rabun county. Check our website for future updates and I will try to post some pictures.

Here is what I have learned about the Flood of 2009. Flash flooding can happen anywhere. Elevation and soil composite can be overwhelmed by torrential rain over time. There are many areas you can expect devastating floods, but all areas should be under a “500” year flood plain. I learned that the river and stream gages work (gage is how the USGS spell it) and the information they transmit probably saved many lives. I learned that disasters bring people together and often bring out our best and that some heroes wear badges, others wear hats, but most are just ordinary people who do extra-ordinary things. Peace.

Monday September 21

One for the record books, Let's call it Nemo!

A day I will not soon forget. I have an official NWS rain gauge and a member of CoCoRaHs (http://www.cocorahs.org/state.aspx?state=ga) and this morning I had collected in 24 hours 9.60” of rain. I have never seen that much rain before and I have covered hurricanes and tropical storms. There are plenty of areas around metro Atlanta where 10-12 inches is not uncommon.

How bout this, officially at ATL, we picked up 2.13” today and that brings us surplus for the month of nearly 5” and a surplus for the year of nearly 7”. Lake Lanier rose more than 2 feet today and is at its highest level since the summer of 2007. More runoff is expected over the next several days, so the level will continue to rise.

A worthy comment from a viewer about this tropical nightmare of rain that isn’t a named storm. Chris Corriere writes: “Nemo in greek translates as 'no body' or 'no name'. Odysseus tells the cyclops Polyphemus that his name is Nemo after he blinds him with a flaming timber. Polyphemus proceeds to scream for help that 'no body' is in my cave and has blinded me, so no one comes to help him catch 'no body' because they think he's just acting nuts. I think Nemo sounds better than 'the storm with no name'.”

Can’t wait to dry out, ditto for my basement. Peace

Monday September 7

Summer fades, and what has me bummed:

The unofficial end of summer today and it looks like it won’t be coming back. Sure we will have temps in the 80s to low 90s, but no more searing summer heat. The autumnal equinox is set for September 22nd.

This is the peak week in hurricane season and it looks very quiet. As discussed earlier, El Nino is doing a number on limiting tropical storm development. There is a disturbance way out in the Atlantic, but no real threat right now. That low off the North Carolina coast will spin up healthy rainfall totals, but is not tropical in nature.

Two things I’m bummed about on this Monday, The Dawgs game out in Oklahoma and the uproar over the President’s address to school children. First the Dawgs: what happened with the play calling after the first drive? And what’s the deal with our kick coverage and return teams? I found myself yelling at the tv. Now to the President, these comments are not to be political, but just asking for a little common sense. I am all for the leader of the free world talking to the school kids about staying in school, being a good citizen, doing your best and respecting authority. I find it narrow minded that some believe he will “indoctrinate” our kids with talk of health care reform. It’s not like he’s speaking to them everyday and if his talk crosses the line, chances are high he wouldn’t be able to do it again. Just relax folks and let’s see what he has to say. Peace

Monday August 31

Bye bye summertime, time for some football.

It’s time to turn the corner and turn the page. The season of autumn begins on September 22nd, but in my business it begins on September 1st. What a summer its been, hot and dry in June, and then cool and wet for August. For the first time in a while, we actually have a rainfall surplus this late into the year!!

No great change in our weather pattern for the first part of September. Of course we will watch the tropics as the peak of hurricane season is the 10th.

College football cranks up this week and I will have your gameday forecasts for both the Dawgs and Jackets each week right here on the website. Did you catch a high school game this past weekend? I did and it sure is plenty of fun. Peace.

Friday August 21

Tropical air changes and supporting the community.

After a week of tropical air hanging around North Georgia, a strong cold front will push it all away by Saturday. Get ready for some wonderful weather for late August as the humidity level will drop big time. In fact, low temps by Sunday morning will be In the low to mid 60s in town with a few 50s in the suburbs. It looks dry from Sunday into the new week.

Be sure to check out the video of the waves along the east coast this weekend. Hurricane Bill is a huge storm in size and is whipping up angry Atlantic Ocean. By Sunday, waves could be well over 20 feet in New England. I am sure beach erosion from Long Island northward will be extensive. Just goes to show how a tropical system affects an area without a direct hit.

Tis the season of high school sports, football, softball, volleyball and cross country are in season. For those of us with kids participating, its great entertainment. I encourage you to support your local teams. Check out a game and then let me know if you didn’t have a wonderful experience. Peace.

Wednesday August 19

A new El Nino and time flies.

There will be plenty of tropical moisture hanging around the southeast the next several days. The remnants of both Claudette and Ana will drive up our rain chance through Friday. As seen on this web page, Hurricane Bill is a large and powerful hurricane, but should have little impact on the U.S. other than rough surf along the Atlantic coast.

I had an interesting conversation on Tuesday with Dr. Peter Webster at Georgia Tech. He, along with two other colleagues, has published a paper that has a fascinating conclusion; all El Nino’s are no the same. His theory is that if the warming episode occurs in the central Pacific rather than the eastern Pacific, the effect of El Nino on the Atlantic tropical season is very different. Instead of El Nino suppressing tropical development, a central Pacific El Nino episode will actually increase the number of storms and the likelihood of a storm making landfall is also greater..Awesome stuff. Here is the link to more info: http://www.gatech.edu/newsroom/release.html?id=3079

I sent this message to my college daughter this week: “Enjoy your last first day of school.” She is senior and that is not possible. Why does life go by so quick? As I get older, I try to make everyday count, you should too. Peace.

Wednesday August 12

Numbers tell a story and I am a "key" holder.

Studying meteorology and climatology, I have always been fascinated with numbers and statistics. (I guess that is why I love baseball where there is a number and stat for everything). Here are your numbers for the day;

For Atlanta, we have a rainfall deficit for the past 30 days of 1.70” which means we have received 63% of average rainfall. For 3 months is a deficit of 1.93” or 85%. But for the past 6 months we have a surplus of 2.96” or 111% of average rainfall.

In August, 10 of the first 11 days, the high temperature has been above the 30 year average of 89. It looks like that trend will end this week with clouds keeping the highs in the mid to upper 80s.

The level at Lake Lanier is around 1065’, which is 6 feet below full pool, but only 3 feet below average and the level has not been this high in August since August of 2005.

I was honored this past Monday night to receive the “key to the city” from the Lilburn City Council. I appreciate the gesture from Mayor Diana Preston, but it is me who is blessed to live in such a wonderful community. The schools, my church, and my neighbors and friends are the best. Peace.

Monday August 5

Dog days, fish kill at Piedmont park, and sweet 16.

Hot and sticky for the first week of school, the only cooling off will come from late day and early evening t-storms by mid week and some of those could be locally heavy. These are the dog days, but September is right around the corner.

I am watching a tropical wave off the African coast that could develop into our first tropical depression of the year. That is still days away from a possible tropical storm. This is the latest we have been since 1992 without a named storm; of course 1992 brought us Andrew. On the other side of the globe, Tropical Storm Felicia is heading toward the Hawaiian Islands in the next 24 hours with heavy rain and wind. Surprisingly, the islands have only been hit by 9 tropical systems since 1950.

Spent this morning at Piedmont Park with the dead fish on Lake Clara Meer. My story will air at 5pm, but here is the deal. That lake in the park is really a retention pond and is not fed by a spring or fresh running creek. The Piedmont Park Conservancy Group stocks the lake with bass, bream, and catfish. With the hot and dry weather lately (no rain runoff) an algae forms and then dies and depletes the lake of oxygen, so the fish die. According the Georgia Department of Natural Resources, this sort of thing happens in the southeast. The folks at the park want us to know it was not pollution, or some chemical spill that killed the fish, just a natural occurrence. I’ll have more at 5pm.

Back to school today and what a day at the Chandley house, my youngest daughter Leah turns 16, now that’s a sweet sixteen party..roaming the halls of high school. I loved the first day of school; in fact I loved school, except for some of the “busy” work. Peace.

Wednesday August 5

The heat bubble, hurricane update and birthdays

It appears that some searing summer heat is poised to roll into North Georgia later this week and beyond. A huge dome of high pressure will move from west to east and the models suggest it will sit over our region for several days. Under the dome will be sinking air, that air will heat as it compresses and that spells days in the 90s and lows only in the 70s. The sinking air will also suppress any t-storm development to only a few rogue storms. This heat will be like the days we experienced in late June. In fact in June, we saw our highest temp of the year (96 on June 27th) and we recorded 17 days of 90 plus, compared to only 8 days in July. Thank goodness the soil moisture has been replenished, because with a dry ground, an air mass like the one heading our way could produce temps above 100.

The men from Colorado State University, Dr. Phil Klotzback and Dr. William Gray (I have always been amazed that some of the best hurricane forecasts and analysis comes from Colorado, but these guys for many years have been good) have downgraded their tropical prediction to 10 named storms, 4 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. With a strengthening El Nino, I agree with their assessment for the 2009 season. But I still remind you that 1992 was a down year and yet Andrew hammered south Florida and Louisiana.

Today is my lovely wife’s birthday. It is a tradition in the Chandley house that on your birthday you can have anything to eat all day..you pick it and we eat it. When my youngest daughter turned 8 she wanted ice cream for breakfast, so she did and now 8 years later she still remembers that day. I wonder what my wife will choose for dinner tonight? Peace.

Thursday July 30

A weird summer weather pattern and now it's back to school?

To answer your many questions, yes this has been a weird summer here in Georgia and across the nation. That’s one of the reasons (there are many) I love weather so much..the unpredictability of it all. We are seeing a pattern over the US that has a huge heat bubble in the Pacific Northwest and a long wave trough dominating the eastern half of the country. That is why they are having record breaking heat in Seattle and Portland, Seattle hit 103 on Wednesday, their hottest temperature ever recorded. The trough is keeping it cooler in the upper Midwest where some spots in Wisconsin have held in the low 80s all summer. Here in the southeast it’s been real muggy this week and that has kept the temperature down. In July, Atlanta has only seen 8 days with a temperature of 90 or above. The rain pattern has been erratic with some spots seeing several inches and others just a drop. Sure beats the drought of the past two years. No real change in this pattern into the first week of August.

I see that kids are back in school in Walton county…in July..really? Next week other systems crank it up, not to mention the start of fall sports and activities. Yes I remember Labor Day marking the beginning of school, guess I’m just an old-timer now. Peace.

Tuesday July 28

A wetter pattern, quiet in the tropics, and a proud father.

A changing weather pattern will increase our risk of showers and t-storms this week and into the weekend. Finally the Bermuda High will start doing its thing and pump rich tropical moisture into our state and with a few disturbances from the west roll our way, rain is certain to fall. Computer models are projecting 3-4 inches of rain over the next 5days for NW Georgia. I don’t think everyone will see that much, but isolated heavy amounts are possible.

It appears that we will have an “O-fer” for the first two months of hurricane season. While sea surface temperatures are plenty warm, upper level wind patterns are shearing the hope of any tropical development. Only three times in the past 20 years has this occurred. In 2004 and 2000, the first storms were not until August and then it got real busy with 15 and 14 storms respectively. Back in 1992 the first storm of the season didn’t occur until mid August, but it was a memorable one…Andrew. I still like the forecast of 11 named storms with 7 hurricanes, but if the El Nino continues to strengthen, those numbers will trend downward.

It has been a wonderful summer for me personally as my oldest daughter Lauren, a senior at Georgia College, has been interning here at WSB-TV. Her last day is tomorrow. What a great thrill to come to work each day with her. She is majoring in communications with an interest in public relations and event planning. When I started work here at WSB-TV she was 7 months old, and now she is a beautiful young woman with a bright future. I am blessed. Peace.

Wednesday July 1

Heat, Hurricanes, and Emmy

Yes it’s been dry and it’s been hot, 16 straight days of 90 degrees or better for Atlanta. I am looking for some changes by the weekend as the humidity will come back and so will the risk for showers and t-storms.

We are now one month into the tropical season and so far it’s been really quiet. In the past 15 years, we have no named storms in the month of June only 4 times. But in those four seasons, the average number of storms was 13, which is above average. The forecast for 2009 calls for 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2-3 major storms. Remember it only takes one land falling storm to skew the perception. 1992 was a quiet year for storms until August when Hurricane Andrew lashed Florida and Louisiana.

There are signs of weak El Nino developing (warmer sea surface temps in the Pacific) and history tell us that tends to suppress tropical activity in the Atlantic and Gulf basins. Stay tuned.

On a personal note, something really cool happened to me at the Southeast Regional Emmy Awards on Saturday night. I was presented with an Emmy for Weather anchor, and the “Emmy girl” giving me my statue was my oldest daughter Lauren. A proud Dad moment. Peace.

Monday June 15th

The drought, t-storms, and Taylor Swift.

Hey Weather fans, sorry it’s been a while since my last post. I had some vacation time and then fought a cold for a week, then filled in for both Glenn and Karen. You know summertime, our schedules are all over the place.

Since we last met, plenty has happened. The drought is officially over! You can now wash your car and water the lawn. There are some restrictions here in the metro area, so just look at our website to find our when you can water..but at least you can.

This is a difficult time of year for forecasting. We know there will be t-storms, placement and timing are tough. Often we get these mesoscale convective complexes (MCC’s) that roll in from the NW. They can occur late in the day and in the evening, some even last into the morning. These storms are capable of damaging winds, frequent lightning and hail. We do our best to let you know when they are coming our way, so stay tuned.

I took my daughters over the weekend to the Taylor Swift/Keith Urban concert at Philips arena. What a role model for young ladies, Taylor Swift is the real deal, we need more people like her in the public eye. Memories were made. Peace.

Wednesday May 20

Talking summer days and the hurricane season.

It certainly has not felt like a normal May for North Georgia. Well get used to it. This may be an odd summer weatherwise. After a couple of years of the drought and searing summer heat, the summer of 2009 will be mild and at times damp.

The latest data shows that La Nina (the cooler sea surface temps in the Pacific) is gone and we have entered a neutral phase in the El Nino/Southern Oscillation. That means no extremes in our global weather patterns. With our abundant soil moisture and the heating of summer days, expect the random late day and early t-storm machine to get cranked up by June and July. The increase in boundary layer moisture will keep the afternoon temps from extremes, so I expect no 100 degree days this year.

Hurricane season starts on June 1. The National Hurricane Center will make their seasonal prediction on Thursday. On average over the past 50 years, we have seen 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes (cat 3 or higher). During a neutral ENSO summer, those average numbers do not deviate that much. Of course one land falling major hurricane is all it takes (see Andrew 1992) and that can happen in both busy and slow years. Peace.

Thursday May 14

Finally, the drought is OVER!.

As I track showers and t-storms across the southeast, I found this little nugget on the computer. For the first time in more than 2 years, the state of Georgia is drought free!! Check it out here for yourself: http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/DM_state.htm?GA,SE This was a long time coming and I realize that Lake Lanier is still not full (Less than 6 feet below summer pool) but that is another matter. Now folks are asking, “when is it going to be sunny and dry?” Speaking of which, this weekend really looks unsettled. There will be some dry hours, but the shower and t-storm machine will be cranked up. I also see cooler air the first of next week.

My college daughter is home for the summer, life is good. It will be even better on the beach in about week. Peace.

Tuesday May 12

Cooler, drier and final exams.

This is a warm weather break for the month of May. Temps over the next two days will be a few degrees below the average, both during day and at night. Typically cooler air means drier air and that is why we have turned off the t-storm machine. As you know we are doing very well in the rainfall total department, so this respite from rain is welcomed. It looks like humidity will creep back into metro Atlanta later this week and another round of rain and t-storms will roll over us by the weekend. This upper air pattern is very different from what we saw the last two years when the drought had us.

I hear my daughters bemoan that its final exam time and how tough and stressful it is. I am sure I felt the same way many years ago, but in retrospect, I would trade being an adult for another year of final exams in a blink. Scoring well on exams is all about preparation, the same holds true for everyday life, except in life, you have more than one course and there are some things you just can’t prepare for. Peace.

Wednesday May 6

Severe Storms, the drought and Mom.

Quite the active weather pattern today and tonight for North Georgia. Numerous watches, warnings and advisories and they will be changing frequently. The greatest threat of severe weather (damaging winds, hail, lightning and flooding rains) will be this afternoon and early evening. Severe weather center 2 will be hopping and we will be on the air and on the web with updates. Giving people valuable information is the reason I got into this profession, so today is a great day to be a meteorologist!

Great news about the 2 year old drought….its is over..gone, see you later. Our state climatologist, David Stookesbury, says the soil moisture, ground water, and stream flows are all at or above normal for the state. No word yet from the state as far as the easing of water restrictions is concerned. How about this for Lake Lanier, the lake level continues to rise. Today its at 1064.43 feet above sea level. Full summer pool is 1071’. This is the highest Lanier has been since July 24, 2007. Awesome. With more rain on the way today, tonight and into the weekend, the level will surely rise for days to come.

Please don’t forget Sunday is Mother’s Day. I think Mom’s should get more than one day, but that’s me. I have been blessed to have a wonderful Mom to me and I’m married to a wonderful Mom to my daughters. Peace.

Friday May 1

Not a clear cut weekend weatherwise.

We are in a frustrating weather pattern this first week of May. Frustrating in the sense that forecasting the when and where of showers and t-showers is a challenge. Weather disturbances will move from the NW to the SE in the mid south area and that puts Metro Atlanta on the fringe to see rain and t-showers. There will be plenty of dry hours for your outdoor plans, but keep in mind a shower or t-storm may develop at any time. It will be best to check back this weekend for Brad Nitz’s updates both on the air and on our website. Enjoy the first weekend of May! Peace.

Monday April 27

Staying warm and tornado siren info.

Our warm spring weather will continue this week with an increase in humidity. Rain chances will rise with a cold front by the weekend. I really enjoy this time of year with comfortable temps and the “greening” of the grass and trees.

Last week I did a report on the tornado sirens in Cobb county. As you recall, the sirens went off when there was NOT a tornado warning for the area. Why did this happen? It seems that Cobb’s criteria is the following: The sirens will be blare when Cobb county is under a tornado warning, or a severe t-storm warning during a tornado watch, or a funnel cloud is spotted by law enforcement. That was the case last week. While tornado sirens have value, do not use them as your only source of weather warnings. Keep in mind not all communities have the sirens and they are really for people to hear while outside. They are not meant to warn people while inside their homes. Your best source of weather warning comes from a weather radio, you can find more info about where to get one here on this web page. Peace.

Thursday April 23

Summer preview this weekend.

The major pattern change is underway and that means a nice warm-up for North Georgia. The warmest air of the year is headed this way as we will see high temps into the 80s. With the warm front moving in, some spots might see a pop up t-storm later today and tonight. Hail and damaging winds are the greatest threats, but most of the area will remain rain free. It has been since last October when we last saw temps in the 80s, so its been awhile. The rain chance goes way down over the next five days as we see warm and stable air over North Georgia.

Enjoy the early taste of summer. Peace.

Thursday April 16

Braves baseball and the weather.

Earlier today, Karen Minton, Brad Nitz and I took part in the Braves Weather Day down at Turner Field. We had the pleasure to speak to more than 1500 school kids about weather before the Braves/Marlins game. We talked of weather safety, weather terms and a look behind the scenes at Severe Weather Center 2. Many thanks to our promotions department and the Braves for coordinating such a large event. Also a huge shout out to Braves rightfielder Jeff Francoeur for lending me a hand, Jeff comes from a family of educators, so he appreciates the opportunity to reach out to students. Check out the slideshow here on our web page.

I am still looking for more of warm-up into the weekend and then a good chance for rain and t-showers on Sunday afternoon and evening. The rain risk rolls into Monday as well. No doubt Saturday is the pick of the litter for the weekend. Peace.

Wednesday April 15

Are you ready? and tea parties.

Are you ready? Is your family ready to battle severe storms? We will air a special on Channel 2 tonight called “Are you ready?” that deals with this subject. Glenn, Karen, Brad and I will tell you how to protect your family during severe weather and we will give you a behind the scenes look at Severe Weather Center 2. Join us tonight at 8pm.

Clear and cool for awhile as a broad area of high pressure sits over the southeast. Even with sunshine highs the next several days will struggle to get out of the 60s. The average high for Atlanta this week is 73. It looks like another shot of showers and t-storms by Sunday.

It is reassuring to see so many people at the Tea parties today and tonight. Government spending is way out of control. It is time to send a huge message to those that spend our money! Peace.

Tuesday April 14

What's the deal with damaging wind on Monday?

Folks in North Georgia will be busy for days repairing the damage from the wind on Monday. So why did so many trees fall? We didn’t have many severe storms, but fallen trees were widespread. It was an unusual event called a “wake low”. The rain cooled air behind the front allowed the air to sink. The sinking air warms and then rises creating waves in the atmosphere. Near the sinking air an area of high pressure forms and near the rising air an area of low pressure forms. The pressure gradient between the high and the low produces wind. This event covers a large area unlike a single spot under a t-storm, and the winds are often sustained above 40 mph with gusts higher. I also suspect that the wind direction aided in the amount of fallen trees. Our prevailing wind in Georgia is from the west or northwest. Monday’s wind was from the southeast, the weaken trees were not “used” to that direction being that strong. No doubt this was a rare event and near impossible to forecast.

Thursday April 2

Severe weather threat tonight, then off for Spring Break.

A potent spring storm is moving through the southeast and it will be a stormy afternoon and evening for many. Here in North Georgia we will see a round of rain with embedded t-storms, first on the southside. We do have a threat for severe storms with hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes likely. At Noon, the air over Mississippi and Alabama is much more unstable than the air over Georgia. The rain of earlier today has calmed the atmosphere quite a bit. Please check in later today and tonight to see how things are developing. A drier day is ahead for Friday and Saturday and that one last cold snap is in the outlook for early next week.

I will be blog-less for the next week as its off to Spring Break with my family. Glenn and Brad will man the weather fort and I will be back on Monday April 13th. I hope you get a chance to see family and friends over Easter weekend, safe travels. Peace.

Wednesday April 1

No joke-more rain on the way

I am looking at more rain heading toward North Georgia tonight and into your Thursday. The first wave should be here (southside first) after midnight and into Thursday morning. This will be mainly rain with a few embedded t-showers. Rain totals will exceed one inch in many areas. Thursday evening, I will be tracking a squall line out ahead of the cold front. This line has the potential for severe storms and we will know more as they develop tomorrow afternoon in Alabama. The parameters are there in Alabama for an outbreak of severe weather. Outdoor activities look fine for Friday and Saturday, with scattered showers and t-storms for Sunday. No doubt we are in an active pattern for the next two weeks.

What is the deal with I-85 south of town? I really feel for you folks in South Fulton, Fayette, and Coweta counties that have to travel that route each day. Did you see that big truck crash on Tuesday that shut down the road near Northgate High School? I just drove that way on Monday and came into the newsroom and said what a dangerous stretch of highway that is. I understand the need for road construction and road expansion, but those narrow two lanes are scary. If you are heading that way soon, please be careful. Peace.

Tuesday March 31

When can we water?

As I wrote yesterday, the drought is over for much of North Georgia. With that proclamation, the next question is…when can start watering our lawns? The short answer is not yet, the long answer is more confusing. The way I understand it, the Georgia Environmental Protection Division (EPD) brought forth the watering ban in the Fall of 2007 as we entered a level 4 drought. Even though we are no longer in a level four, the ban remains until we see 4 consecutive months of above normal rainfall. This March would be month number one. With that being said, each county or water department can petition the EPD to relax the ban and issue water restrictions, several North Georgia counties have done that and were granted the release of the ban. I am sure that more counties will follow suit, so to answer the question, “can I water?” it is best to check with your local water department. Here is something interesting I found out today, While we are all elated on the rise of Lake Lanier to a level of 1060’, it was that level back in September of 2007 that prompted the EPD to issue the watering ban..wow.

Tomorrow is April Fools Day, watch out, you were warned. Peace.

Monday March 30

Declaring the drought over!!!!!!!

With the soaking rains of last week and more rain on the way this week and into the first part of April, the drought is over for North Georgia. Yes, Lake Lanier continues to be nearly 10 feet below full summer pool, but there are other isssues at work, not the lack of rainfall. No word yet on what the lack of a drought label will mean for outdoor water restrictions, but it sure will be nice to see the spring colors in full form. Lake Allatoona is now above full pool, in fact it’s the highest its been since August of 2005. Other area lakes are fairing well too. I spent the early part of the day down in Coweta County shooting an updated story on the areas hit by the Feburary tornado. The damage along the Coweta/Meriwether line was amazing and because of ample warning, many residents took cover and were spared of injury. Look for these stories in April. Peace.

Friday March 27

Severe storms on Saturday, time to pay attention.

After this round of rain and storms, I think we will able to say “what drought”. North Georgia will see 2-4 inches through Saturday and the lake levels will rise for days. The big threat for severe weather is still tomorrow. Please stay weather aware through tv and our website. These storms will be capable of tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm winds of 70 mph plus. The greatest risk will be between 10am and 4pm. Right now would be a good time to review your families tornado safety plan. Check back for plenty of updates. Peace.

Thursday March 26

Severe weather threat looms.

The rain is not done, but we will get a break this afternoon. Severe storms will threaten North Georgia on Friday and again on Saturday. Several disturbances will roll our way with main event happening on Saturday. Damaging thunderstorms with possible tornadoes will be common into Saturday afternoon. We will have you covered here in Severe Weather Center 2. Timing and location are difficult to predict this far out, but the scenario is not a calm one for this area. No flooding problems yet, but any additional rainfall, especially in NW Georgia, will fall on saturated soil. That means run off will be great. It is time to make sure that your family has a severe weather radio to alert you during the night. More details can be found on this website. Peace

Wednesday March 25

Busy day in the weather center and its only getting started.

Sorry for the late blog, been to Lake Allatoona for a story and then tracking the rain this afternoon. Join me tomorrow morning with Karen Minton for Action News this Morning at 5am. We will have the latest on the rain and possible storms. Also, I will have a new look at the severe weather threat this Saturday. Thanks for checking in. Peace.

Tuesday March 24

Flooding potential is high.

A real active weather pattern is about to begin for North Georgia from tonight into Sunday. The latest info suggests a four day rainfall total of 5 plus inches for some areas. That would help flow some water into Lake Lanier for sure. Here is an example on how important run off in the basin can be. This morning both Allatoona Lake and Lake Lanier reported a rise in the level. We have not had any rain in the past week and yet run off continues to spill into the lake. Get ready for numerous watches and warnings over the next several days. I am expecting a flood watch and then possible severe t-storm warnings on Thursday and again late Friday into Saturday. Please be weather aware and check back often for forecasts and updates. Peace.

Monday March 23

Exciting weather later this week.

Looking down the road, our March weather is about to turn turbulent. With blizzard warnings in the great plains and our temps in the 70s, you know some exciting weather is heading our way. The scenario is a front comes our way mid-week bringing us a rain chance, the front stalls, keeping the rain chance around thru Thursday and into Friday. Projected rainfall rates exceed 2-3 inches in many areas. Then the front heads north as a warm front, juicing up our atmosphere for a second front by the weekend. That event could bring us some severe weather. Still several days out, but the set-up demands our attention.

Didn’t fair too well with my basketball bracket this weekend. While I have all eight of my elite eight teams still alive, I took quite a beating in the two early rounds. I hope you enjoyed the weekend weather like I did, softball on Saturday, and then golf on Sunday afternoon. The sky on Sunday was a brilliant blue, just a reminder of who is in charge. Peace.

Friday March 20

Spring off to a cool start.

Stable and cool weather will be the rule this weekend. A huge area of high pressure will cover the eastern half of the U.S. with the core of the cold air off to our north and east. There is a slight chance that some areas in North Georgia could awake Saturday morning to patchy light frost, but most areas will be frost free as the air will be really dry. High temps will hang out in the 60s into the new week, with the next chance for rain not until mid-week. I still think its too early to do any spring planting, another cold snap is likely before Easter (April 12th).

Enjoy the weekend with family and friends, I will. Peace.

Thursday March 19

Bye Bye winter (officially) and let's go Pitt.

The vernal equinox occurs at 7:44 tomorrow morning signaling the beginning of spring in the Northern Hemisphere. At that moment the sun will be directly over the equator. Pretty cool stuff on how the tilt of the earth’s axis has such an impact on our seasons and ultimately our weather. It appears the first few days of spring will be very quiet weatherwise, but I will be watching the possibility of some frost come Saturday morning. Like I have been saying, the cold of winter is not done yet. You can expect several more threats of freezing temps before April 15th.

I spent this morning shooting a segment for our upcoming severe weather special. Glenn, Karen, Brad and I will be showing you how to protect and prepare your family for severe weather. The show will be very informative and we will showcase our weather equipment here in Severe Weather Center 2. No one can match our tools or experience.

In case you are wondering, my final four is Michigan St., UConn, Pitt and UNC. With Pitt winning it all.

Wednesday March 18

So what's with the clouds and drizzle? and filling out my bracket.

Low level moisture trapped by warmer temps aloft can make a mess of the forecast. This is a case where the elevation of Atlanta and surrounding areas come into play. We sit nearly 1000 feet above sea level, so an east wind will pile up the cool damp air from the Atlantic along the foothills of the mountains. At about 3000 feet, the wind flow is out of the southwest and its warmer, so it traps the cooler air below, we call that an inversion. This time of year the sun angle and duration of daylight will erode the inversion, it just takes several hours. In the higher elevations of the North Georgia mountains, there is no inversion and sunshine rules, so at Noon, the warmest temps were around Blairsville. I am still looking for the 70s tomorrow.

Have you done your basketball brackets yet? Its always a challenge to pick just the right teams at the right time. I won the office pool many years ago thanks to Christian Laettner and the Duke Blue Devils. Here is how I do my bracket, I go game by game and then come up with a champion. I will let you know my picks tomorrow. Peace.

Tuesday March 17

A drier pattern and why isn't there a "quiet" drill?

The weekend rain was welcomed, 2-3 inches on average around the metro area, but now its time to dry out. Plenty of sunshine under the dome of high pressure this afternoon and highs will reach the upper 60s and low 70s. I am expecting some patchy fog by early Wednesday morning, quickly burning off with sunshine by late morning. A cold front will usher in a slight chance for showers on Thursday with cooler and drier air set for Friday. The latest run of extended models has a big cold snap the end of the next week. I have been telling you that winter is not done.

I went to the dentist this morning to replace a filling. I appreciate the fact my gums can be numbed so I feel no pain while parts of my tooth are being drilled. However, I wonder with all of the medical marvels of the past 30 years, why can’t there be a “quiet” drill. I can’t feel the drilling going on, but I can hear it. You know the sound, the high pitched squeal that makes my toes curl and tells my mind that this really hurts if not for the drugs. Imagine how pleasant the dentist experience would be if you couldn’t hear the drill. It bothers me even when its going on in the room next to me. I am blessed to have nice teeth, so I am not complaining, just wondering. Peace.

Monday March 16

This type of rain is beneficial and it will be getting warmer.

Yes it has been dreary the past few days, but it’s been nice to see a good soaking rain. Some areas of North Georgia are still in a drought, mainly east and northeast of Atlanta toward the South Carolina line. A cool light to moderate rain, means more of the water can soak in the ground and not run off nor be evaporated. Area lakes and reservoirs are doing quite well, except for Lake Lanier which is in a league of its own. Still, Lanier is at its highest level since Oct. 1, 2007. As we see temps this week nearing 70, watch how the grass will turn greener and the flowering trees will start popping out.

While I don’t think we are done with freezing temps, I do not see any cold snaps the rest of the month. Notice how our average high temp has now reached 65 and will continue to increase a degree every three days. I love this time of year and can’t wait for summer. Peace.

Thursday March 12

Rainy days and remembering some wild weather.

Here comes your rainy days. We have all put things off for a rainy day, well this weekend is your time to get those things done. The risk for t-storms is nil, and the rain will be light, but steady, so flooding will not be an issue. I am looking at 1-2 inches through Sunday with isolated heavier amounts. With the east wind, temps will hold in the 40s and 50s, with little range from morning to afternoon..

This weekend marks the anniversary of two wild weather events for metro Atlanta. March 13, 1993 was the date the “Blizzard of 93” hit, and of course March 14th a year ago, downtown Atlanta was hit by a tornado. I cannot believe the blizzard was 16 years ago. You want to have an unsettling feeling? Think where you will be 16 years from now. Time flies, so enjoy each day, cherish family, friends, and nurture those relationships. Peace.

Wednesday March 11

What is the "wedge"?

You will hear us (Glenn, Karen, Brad, and me) talk this week about the “wedge”. This is a weather phenomenon that brings North Georgia unpleasant weather. The official term is “cold air damming” or “CAD”. Cool moist air from the Atlantic gets trapped near the surface by warm, moist air above from the Gulf of Mexico. The result is temperatures holding in the 40s and periods of showers and drizzle. Once the CAD sets up, it usually sticks around and that means our computer model guidance will be wrong. Other than snow and ice, the wedge, is the most difficult weather event to forecast. I do some beneficial rain this weekend and that would be the good news for all.

Speaking of good news, we really need some. Working in this business can be a downer. You have seen the headlines on this website; the guy that shoots 10 in Alabama, the student that kills 16 in Germany, the unemployment rate continues to climb..etc. Keep in mind those stories are what defines news..news would be the extra-ordinary, the odd, the unusual. Hopefully your life today was pretty mundane and you can go home, kiss your wife, hug your kids and pet the dog. That’s my plan. Peace.

Tuesday March 10

Spring fever and good news about spring break.

I love temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s. Isn’t that just about perfect? Well enjoy today and most of tomorrow because a weather change is coming. The shift from spring back to winter will be uncomfortable for some, but nothing real drastic. Parts of Texas and Louisiana will get soaked over the next 5 days with several inches of rain, boy we could use that. Yesterday Athens tied their record high for the date at 84, last hit in 1974.

Spring fever goes higher as students and families head for “spring break”. Many of the area colleges and universities are out now and over the next several weeks. Most metro schools will be off the second week of April. I was pleasantly surprised to find a positive article in the Gainesville Times today on some Vermont college students who spend spring break serving others. I know this happens and I believe the numbers are growing, but all too often the media focuses on the party kids and not those doing good works. Enjoy the story and with young adults like these, I have hope for our nation. Peace.

http://www.gainesvilletimes.com/news/article/15902/

Monday March 9

Pleasant temperatures and positive press.

I hope you enjoyed the wonderful weather this weekend. With today’s anticipated high in the mid 70s, it will be the 4th day in a row that we topped 70 degrees. The last time that happened was the first week of November. Yes, days like this give all of us spring fever, but don’t think for a minute that winter is done. We have not seen the last of freezing temps, but the real cold days of winter are behind us. I am looking forward to some rain chances by the end of the week as a front will stall across North Georgia. Right now the rainfall potential is not all that impressive.

Many thanks to the folks at the Gwinnett Citizen for writing the article about me and my colleague Karen Minton. You can check it out here: http://www.gwinnettcitizen.com/ I know its supposed to be bad for you, but I do enjoy getting some sunshine on my face. I do use some SPF, but I feel better with natural color. Peace.

Friday March 6

The downside of sunny and warm weather.

We are finally seeing a weekend of splendid weather, with plenty of sunshine and really warm temperatures. Quite the contrast to last weekend’s snow event. Here is the problem with the tranquil weather, fewer people watch television news. It’s a fact, when the weather turns nice, folks head to the outdoors. So your assignment this weekend is to enjoy the pleasant weather, but check back in to Actions News for updates. If you are on the go, log on to our website and wsbtv.com/mobile. We are expecting some rain chances next week, but it looks like the mild temps will hang around for awhile. Peace.

Thursday March 5

A big bad case of spring fever.

There will be an epidemic of spring fever this weekend. Your assignment is to get outside and soak in the sun and warmth. However, don’t get too carried away, we have several more cold snaps to go before we close a book on the winter of 08/09. The other day I wrote on the power of the sun and how shady spots in NE Georgia were still hanging on to Sunday’s snow. Here it is Thursday and there are many spots in Clarke, Barrow, Oconee, and Madison counties where the snow still blankets the ground.

I am still looking at a wonderful forecast for all the race fans heading to Atlanta Motor Speedway for a weekend of “circle” racing. Here’s hoping the Georgia boys do well. For me, its up to Gainesville for a Saturday full of girls fast pitch softball. Peace.

Wednesday March 4

Come on 70s, a lot happening this weekend.

The big time warm up is still on for the end of the week and into the weekend. This is great news for my friends down at Atlanta Motor Speedway. This is race weekend, culminating with the NASCAR race on Sunday afternoon. Over 100,000 folks will find their way to Henry county to watch guys do plenty of left turns. The March race weekend has been plagued by nasty weather, if it hasn’t been nasty (Blizzard of 93) it certainly has been “iffy” (cool with spotty showers). Well not this year. It will be perfect for qualifying on Friday, the truck race on Saturday and then the big race on Sunday. Check my video forecast on this web page for updates.

Did you know that Lake Lanier is at its highest level since October 9, 2007. It is higher now than at anytime last summer. Remember Lanier is a very large lake with a really small basin. So it takes a lot to fill it back up and I think that won’t happen until next winter. Peace.

Tuesday March 3

Power of the sun, lessons from the "Bachelor"

Have you noticed the snow melt patterns? Where the sun shined, the snow on the ground and roofs was quickly erased. However, any north facing slopes and shady spots, the snow remained, ah the power of solar energy. That is a great example of why you can have snow melt with the temperature below 32 degrees. Looks like one more cold night ahead and then the arctic air retreats and is replaced by “normal” March air. How wonderful will the 70s feel this weekend? Time for fastpitch softball..my favorite time of year.

I live in a house full of women, yes I am blessed, but the older I get, the less I know. This whole ABC Bachelor show and phenomenon is a hot topic at my house. The consensus is that Jason is “tool” and the remaining young ladies should run from him. My house is not alone in watching this train wreck of a relationship. The ratings are huge and ABC knows it, that’s why another update show is set for tonight. My lesson learned is that women will band together in their distaste for the “tool”, but somehow give the other ladies a free pass for their behavior in this bizarre affair. Peace.

Monday March 2

Southern Snow aftermath, spring is ahead!

Nothing like a little snow in the south , it brings out the best and worst in folks..more so than any other weather event. I have been forecasting weather in Georgia since 1984 and snow/sleet/ice is by far the most difficult to get right. Here is the major problem. When I say that areas of North Georgia will see 1-2 inches of snow, with isolated higher amounts, people only hear “higher amounts”. Our Sunday snow is a classic example with folks in the mountains and NW Georgia seeing only a few flakes, while the east metro area got hammered. 7 inches of snow for Madison and 6.5 for Athens is a bunch of snow. Overall I would say that Severe Weather Team 2 did a great job with this event and that comes from our southern snow experience.

Look for a great thaw the next several days with temps by the end of the week into the 70s. Enjoy. Peace

Thursday 2-26

Heavy rain, strong storms and snow!!!

Alright folks, the forecast will be very fluid over the next 3 days. Each model run will be different and the forecast will change, but no doubt North Georgia will experience heavy rain, a few strong t-storms and then a mix of rain and snow on Sunday. The devil is in the details and it’s what I love about meteorology. Right now my biggest concern is the threat of flooding rain on Friday and Friday night. Some areas could see 2-3 inches plus. Training is likely, that is heavy rain falling on areas that have already seen heavy rain (like train cars running over the same track). I feel the tornado threat is low, but strong winds are likely. Several waves of rain will move over our area into Saturday and then an upper level low spins our way. These systems bring their own cold air and it appears the air will be cold enough to support accumulating snow. Wow..check back often for updates. Peace.

Wednesday 2-25

Its back....the drought continues.

New information today from the state’s climatologist David Stooksbury; the drought has returned to some parts of North Georgia. Rainfall totals are well below the average for the past two months and therefore most of metro Atlanta is back in a moderate drought. We had removed the drought label from many counties the first of the year, now we have to be concerned for the rest of the winter and into the spring. This is the recharge period for our area lakes and so far the rainfall has been slim. Only NW Georgia is still seeing drought improvement.

I do think our upper level weather patterns will allow for periods of rain over the next two weeks. This will help the drought situation, but only minimally. Peace.

Tuesday 2-24

Fat Tuesday is still chilly for me

I have never understood the whole mardi gras thing, but then there is a lot I don’t know. What I do know is that a warming trend is coming our way as the arctic high slips to the east and our wind flow turns southerly. While today is chilly with highs below the norms, the end of the week will be warm with highs in the 60s. I do see some rain in here by Friday and if the front stalls over us, that means wet weather for the weekend. Right now the storm potential is really slim..just rain this time around.

Spring is less than a month away, officially, but in my mind its closer than that. The Braves actually play a game on Wednesday down at spring training and that is my sign that the seasons are a changing. Baseball and golf are the two greatest sports in the land.

Monday 2-23

Back in the weather center, fresh from the "man-cation".

After a refreshing break with several days of golf, its back in the severe weather center and tracking some cold air. All is quiet from last week’s round of storms as an area of high pressure (it’s the H on the maps) is covering the eastern U.S. and that means fair weather with chilly temps. Our lows are running about 10 degrees below the average and I do see a warm up by the end of the week. Next chance for showers (no storms) will be Friday night into Saturday morning. The spring storms will return, you can count on that.

The “man-cation” was a success as seven guys played golf from sunup to sundown and shared plenty of laughs. In today’s world, it sure is therapeutic to laugh with good friends. I am blessed. Peace.

Tuesday 2-17

Active weather on Wednesday, then its the "man-cation".

I am looking for some areas of North Georgia to get soaked pretty good over the next 24 hours. While most of us have pulled out of the drought, it has been dry and rain events like the one on Wednesday will help battle the rainfall deficit. We have a marginal risk of severe storms, the main threat will be damaging winds. The long range pattern calls for a cool down and then another shot of wet weather this weekend. Several more storm risks next week as an active weather flow will persist.

It’s time for this meteorologist to take a break from weather maps and concentrate on my golf game. The long awaited “man-cation” is about to begin. Eight good friends, playing a lot of golf, eating a lot of food, and sharing plenty of stories. Glenn, Karen and Brad will monitor the severe weather center, see you on the 22nd. Peace.

Friday 2-13

More rain for the metro area.

Another fast moving weather disturbance is racing toward Georgia that means some areas will get soak, and others will only see a splash and dash. My job is to try and figure out where the dividing line will be. Right now the thinking is still a bigger rain event for the south metro area and less rainfall amounts north of I-20. The rain should be gone by lunch time on Saturday, but the clouds look a little more stubborn than yesterday. Seasonal temps will rule this weekend, not as warm as its been the past several days.

Enjoy the weekend and doing something nice for your Valentine. It doesn’t have to be a big gesture, just something

Thursday 2-12

An active pattern for the next 10 days..at least

Yesterday was frustrating in my world of meteorology. As we discussed, a very dynamic system was headed our way and wind was to be the big story. There was very little in the way of lightning and thunder, and there was too much shear (winds turning direction with height) with very little instability. But for some reason the Storm Prediction Center gave us a tornado watch for the western counties, and then gave metro Atlanta a severe t-storm watch. As messengers of that information we relayed that to you the viewers. That doesn’t mean I have to agree with it. I am still baffled on how we can have a severe t-storm watch when the “storms” are producing no lightning. Hmmm. We did have rotation with a “storm” in Troup county that Glenn and Brad tracked, but no reports of ever a tornado. In fact, there were just a few trees knocked down in North Georgia and most of those were due to the strong southerly winds. No storms.

It is less than a week until the man-cation. This is an annual golf trip with 7 guys where we play golf from sunup to sundown. It is a little slice of heaven. Peace.

Wednesday 2-11

On the verge of severe weather.....

If this was April, today would be a big time day for severe weather. Fortunately it is February and the instability is low, so the tornado risk in minimal. Some areas may see some wind damage as some really strong mid level winds may work their way down to the surface. Look out in the mountains for gusts topping 50 mph. As advertised, the air behind the front is Pacific in nature, so no real cool down. The death toll from the Oklahoma tornadoes will probably rise, that is sad. So far it’s been a quiet year for severe weather when compared to the last two. That trend may change looking ahead to March and April.

Tuesday 2-10

Spring temps give way to spring showers and speaking of early.....

A very dynamic weather system will develop overnight and move into the nation’s mid section. The real energy of this storm will be north of Georgia, but we will watch a squall line roll in from Alabama tomorrow afternoon. The real threat will be gusty damaging winds, we will know more once everything materializes. That’s the cool thing about meteorology, forecasting events with elements not yet developed.

Right now our long range pattern has put winter on hold, but don’t start going crazy with thinking outdoor planting..much too early. Speaking of early, I always try to be wherever I go. In fact it’s a life lesson I have passed on to my daughters. They have heard me say time and time again “if you are on time..you are late” Think about it. That’s why I love the business of television. The Noon news starts at noon..not 12:03 or 12:10. Like anything in life, practice being early and it becomes a habit. Peace.

Monday 2-9

A reprieve from winter, for now.

Don’t think for a minute that winter is done..its not. But do get out and enjoy the mild to warm weather over the next several days. I am watching a system out to our west that will bring us some showers and t-storms by Wednesday. The dynamics are such that a few of the storms on Wednesday could have damaging winds, I’ll keep you posted.

I am in this week for Karen Minton on Action News this morning. She is taking a much deserved vacation. I will say that working that shift takes a special personality. My body is not made to get up in the middle of the night and come to work, and it still amazes me how many people are out and about at 3 in the morning. What makes the morning bearable you ask? Working with such nice people, like Fred and Carol, and the morning crew of Joe, Marcus, Suzanne, Leah and Mark. 9 more days until the man-cation. Be nice to someone today..Peace.

Friday 2-6

Finally a February thaw.

Your assignment this weekend is to get outside and soak in some sunshine. I feel like we all have been shut-ins with the arctic outbreaks since the first of the year. The pattern change will hang around for 7 to 10 days and that means above normal temps into next week. Have you noticed the average high temps for Atlanta is now up to 55 and the sunset is getting a little later. Tonight its 6:14 and it stretches out just about a minute a day until June.

Yesterday was National Weatherperson's Day and the fine folks at Blue Bell Ice cream brought some of their goodies to me and Karen Minton. We shared several flavors with our collegues in the newsroom. It is amazing how a little ice cream can put a smile on so many faces. It was like being kids again and having the ice cream man drive through the neighborhood and giving you a push pop, ice cream sandwich, or cone. Thanks Blue Bell, you brightened the day of journalists. Enjoy your weekend, tune in Brad Nitz and take a moment to smile at someone..and then watch their reaction. See you on Monday..Peace.

Thursday 2-5

The spring/summer bug update and friendship through fate.

After checking with Curly my bug man, here is what I know about the frigid cold and bugs. Right now, even with below normal temperatures, the bugs and bug eggs (we are talking mosquitos, gnats, flys, termites, roaches) can survive. They are protected well from the elements in the winter months. Curly says a hard freeze (lows in the 20s) in the spring, March and April, would kill the bugs and eggs. So while a killing freeze would cause damage to young crops, it would greatly reduce the summer bug population.

One year ago today a powerful tornado hit the campus of Union University in Jackson, TN. It hit at 7:02pm with 180-200 mph winds. While this storm did produce fatalities elsewhere, not one of the 3600 students at this Baptist school was killed. Why? Because the school has a tornado warning system and has practiced a tornado drill with the students. Both exercises worked as 80% of the dorms were destroyed. I traveled to Jackson after the twister and admist the chaos of upside down cars, destroyed dorms and a campus in shock, I came across two young ladies from Georgia. Hannah and Katie were from Barrow county and I was the first familiar face from "home" that they saw. At that moment I became more of Dad than a reporter. I wondered what my own daughters would need at that moment..my answer and hug and a prayer. A friendship was formed and then I told their story on how they heeded the warnings, took shelter and rode out the storm. Tonight on Action News at 5pm we catch up with college seniors and talk about what they learned from such an experience. I know I learned that fate and friendship are often woven together and my life is richer for it. Peace.

Wednesday 2-4

This is just too dang cold, but no bugs for spring.

Enough of the arctic cold, it can retreat back to the northlands. Word has it, this extreme cold weather with long periods down below freezing, can reduce the bug population in the spring and summer. I have a call into my bug man and will give you his answer later. In the meartime forecasting such an expansion of cold dense air is challenging. Whenever the temperatures get 20 degrees below (or above) the normals, the computer model algorithms that I use don't handle it very well. For example the low this morning was supposed to be in the low 20s for Atlanta, but we hit 16, therefore the afternoon high will be below the prediction as well. Ah science. Here is my thought for the day. So if our highly complex computer models can't grasp a two day period, why do some put so much emphasis on what will happen 10-20 or even 100 years from now. While you digest that, think about this..its severe weather awareness week. Your assignment today is to have a tornado safety plan for your family. I will share a great story tomorrow about how a plan put into action saves lives. In the meantime, its now 2 weeks until the man-cation. Peace.

Tuesday 2-3

Please know the difference....

It is severe weather awareness week. On the air each day you will see reports on how to respond to severe weather. Please, please, please learn the difference between a WATCH and a WARNING. Here it is simply. A watch means be on the lookout. A warning means the event is happening and its time to act. A watch gives you time to plan. A warning says act now. Most of the people hurt or killed in severe weather don't know the difference and then don't know what to do. Did you know that more people are killed in floods each year than by tornadoes..why? because they think they can drive through water they have no business driving through. One of the biggest advances in my weather career has been the ability to warn people when severe weather threatens. The lead time is far greater now than 25 years ago. But you have to heed the warnings.

Here comes the cold...again..I hate it, a pattern shift will warm us big time by the weekend, but until then bundle up. Is there no greater sport than golf? I love a game where you can call a penalty on yourself..think about it. Peace.

Monday 2-2

Groundhog day...rodent vs. meteorologist

The groundhog reports mean nothing..not based on science but somehow they get a lot of press. No one ever remembers the predicitions, but there they are on the nightly news. For the record General Lee in Georgia saw no shadow, so an early spring. Phil in Penn. saw his, so the folks up there are saying 6 more weeks of winter. well duh.. the spring or the vernal equinox is March 20th. that is a fact.

Get ready for another shot of arctic air by mid-week. I am ready for a break and it looks like one for the weekend. I am a warm weather, love humidty kind of guy. Cold weather and I do not get along. When temps top 60 in the winter, I say we cheated winter another day. Oh and pitchers and catchers report in less than 3 weeks. Peace.

Friday 1-30

Tracking a storm that hasn't formed yet!

One of the coolest things about meteorology is trying to predict something will happen, when that something (the low) hasn't even formed yet. That is the challenge this weekend. Right now there is still a winter weather threat for North Georgia will the accumulating snow confined to area well north of Atlanta..sorry snow folks. However I believe we will see some flakes here and of course it will turn cold on Monday night into Tuesday. My friend Brad Nitz will have lots to talk about this weekend so please tune him in. For me this weekend will mean girls basketball (Go Panthers) girls softball (Go Rage), church, maybe some golf on Sunday and of course tuning into the big game. I'll be back on Monday and by then we will have a firm grasp on the winter storm. Peace.

Thursday 1-29

What I know about snow..

There is no other weather element (tornadoes are a close second) like snow to fire up the conversation. And no matter what we actually say, people hear what whey want to hear..even in my own building! Here is what I know right now...there will be a low forming in the gulf. there will be really cold air coming our way Monday night into Tuesday and lasting into Wednesday. I know that some areas in the southeast will get snow. I know that Atlanta will start with rain. Timing of a changeover to snow and snowfall amounts are still uncertain. My collegue Brad Nitz will have tons of fun this weekend showing you the new model data. And to answer the question, no I do not have stock in Kroger or Publix! In addition to winter weather coverage next week, we are also gearing up for severe weather awareness week. Today I talked to two young ladies from Barrow county that go to school at Union University in Jackson, TN. You may recall that school was hit hard by a F-4 tornado last year. I covered the story, fate brought me to Hannah and Katie who were scared after riding out the twister in their dorm room. I did a story on them then and we have forged a friendship since. Check out their update next week. Peace.

Wednesday 1-28

Crank up the snow watch

Yes its 5 days away, but looking at weather data that could bring us some snow sure is fun. Right now its the classic set up for North Georgia. A deep area of low pressure forming in the gulf, moving to the NE and tapping gulf moisture. We will also have really cold air sliding in from the north and staying for a while. What I am saying is that Monday night and Tuesday could be quite interesting. Forecasting snow in Georgia is to me the most challenging. T-storms and tornadoes are a breeze compared to the "s" word. On another note, I am just three weeks away from my man-cation. More on that later. Peace.

Tuesday 1-27

That is one heck of an ice storm to our north and west. There is a glaze stretching from Oklahoma City to West Virginia. Some places in Kentucky have 6 inches of snow and then 30 miles south it is nothing but ice. How about that wedge for NE Georgia..it just hangs around. A wedge is cool damp air trapped at the surface by the foothills of the mountains and warm air over the top. Right now Gainesville is 46, while Rome (out of the wedge) is 66. In fact it is warmer in Blairsville than Gainesville. Get ready for another shot of cold air by Friday and then the weekend looks dry. Let's watch next Monday really carefully, I don't like what I am seeing on the latest model run. I will just leave it at that and check back tomorrow. Here is something I learned today. As you know the Peachtree Plaza hotel (the tall round one) was hit by the March tornado. It lost 1000 windows. all of the gust room windows have not been replaced..the reason..waiting on all new windows for the whole building..wow. I will have more on that on some severe weather awareness reports next week. Peace.

Monday 1-26

Can you bring us some snow? I get that question at resturants, church, the ball fields, and even here at work. I am amazed on how many people here in the south would like to see snow, while our northern friends would like to see less of it. There are two types of southern snows we see here in Georgia. The cold air in place with a low pressure area moving out of the gulf brings us our accumulating snow. The other snow machine that brings us flurries, snow showers and a dusting of snow (its also more common) is the the cold air wringing out all the moisture it can. I see this happening on Wednesday in extreme north Georgia and I see the former possibly happening the first week of Feburary. Check back for updates as I am watching the models closely.