Thursday September 8, 2011

Peak of hurricane season 2 days away and other thoughts

We are tracking three different storms in the Atlantic basin, Katia, Maria, and Nate. September 10th is the peak day of hurricane season (the top of the bell curve). Still plenty of active days left in this already busy season.

Those tropical storm induced tornadoes on Monday were something else. The confirmed EF-1 storm that tore through Cherokee county was on and off the ground for 24 miles, highly unusual in a tropical setting. Just proves you do this job long enough, you'll see about anything and everything.

With the technology of the day, there is no reason for someone not to be warned for severe weather. You can get warnings on your tv, radio, computer, phone, and weather radio. There was a 30 minute lead time for the Cherokee county storm. Please get tuned in. Peace

Tuesday August 9, 2011

An odd summer, different weather for different places:

Its back to school and back to a routine for most of us. After celebrating my wife's 50th in South Florida last week, and then sending my youngest daughter back to school for the final time (she is a high school senior) its time to focus on our changing weather.

Yes its been hot, but our highs in the 90s is downright cool compared to this week back in 2007. We were well into the 100s that week, setting all kinds of records. This summer the afternoon storm machine as been plentiful for extreme North Georgia and scarce for parts of Central and South Georgia. I am still waiting on a tropical system to bring us exciting weather in the next two months. It should be interesting.

Here is a great wrap up of our July weather for the state compiled by our state climatologist David Stooksbury from UGA: Peace.

Athens, GA - Scattered showers in July reduced drought in south Georgia, though there are still areas of exceptional drought. But dry conditions increased in north Georgia. Hot temperatures plagued the whole state.

For the sixth straight month, temperatures across Georgia were above normal. In Atlanta, the monthly average temperature was 82.4 degrees F (2.4 degrees above normal), in Athens 83 degrees (3.2 degrees above normal), Columbus 84 degrees (2 degrees above normal), Macon 83.2 degrees (2.1 degrees above normal), Savannah 84.2 degrees (2.1 degrees above normal), Brunswick 84.1 degrees (1.7 degrees above normal), Alma 83.7 degrees (1.7 degrees above normal), Valdosta 83.1 degrees (2.7 degrees above normal) and Augusta 84.5 degrees (3.7 degrees above normal).

For Atlanta, this was the fifth warmest July and the fifth warmest June and July since records began in 1878. It was also their second warmest February through July period on record. All National Weather Service stations in Georgia were in the top 12 warmest Julys and top 5 warmest June-through-July periods.

Columbus had its highest ever June and July average temperature since records started in 1948. Columbus, Savannah, and Alma also set their record high average minimum temperatures for June and July since records began at each site. In spite of the continuing hot conditions, only one daily record high was broken in July. Augusta set a new record July 30 with103 degrees, breaking the old record of 102 set that date in 1999. Brunswick tied its high of 99 degrees July 14, set last year in 2010. Savannah set a new record streak of 56 consecutive days of 90 degrees or greater in July. The streak began May 20 and ended July 14. The old record was 44 days set in 1993. Rain was very scattered. In contrast to June, the wettest parts of the state were in south Georgia, reducing the drought conditions there. The northern part of the state experienced less rain, and drought conditions expanded in this region.

The highest monthly total precipitation from NWS reporting stations was 6.73 inches in Alma (0.72 inches above normal). The lowest was in Athens at 1.46 inches (2.95 inches below normal). Valdosta received 6.31 inches (0.12 inches below normal), Augusta 3.46 inches (0.47 inches below normal), Savannah 4 inches (2.04 inches below normal), Columbus 3.99 inches (1.05 inches below normal), Macon 4.16 inches (0.16 inches below normal), Brunswick 4.88 inches (0.07 inches above normal) and Atlanta 2.67 inches (2.45 inches below normal).

Tuesday July 5, 2011

On the verge of Hurricane History

So far the tropical season of 2011 has been eerily quiet with only one named storm, Tropical Storm Arlene, which moved into Mexico last week. We have not had a hurricane hit the U.S. since Hurricane Ike in September of 2008 (Texas). 2 years and 278 days.

That got me wondering about our current streak stacks up in hurricane history..the results are surprising. Only three times in recorded history has the U.S. gone longer between land-falling hurricanes.

3. October 1999 (Irene) to October 2002 (Lili), that is 2 years and 353 days between storms

2. August 1980 (Allen) to August 1983) that is 3 years and 8 days between storms.

1. The longest “dry” spell is Nov. 1861 to September 1865, that is 3 years and 10 months.

WOW, the record was set back during the Civil War. I love numbers, stats, and history. Peace.

Tuesday June 21, 2011

I love and hate this day..the summer solstice.

There is no doubt I was predestined to do my job. As a child I loved the mystery behind thunderstorms and I was always concerned about the time. I was hungry for facts and loved to share them. I love the spring and summer, tolerate the fall and loathe the winter. I crave sunshine and curse the cold.

That is why the summer solstice, today June 21st, is a day I both love and hate. I love it, treasure it, look forward to it every year. The summer solstice is when the sun is directly over the Tropic of Cancer, its most northern point in the sky. That means this is the longest day when it comes time of daylight. In Atlanta that is 14 hours and 23 minutes worth. I love the months leading up to this day when the sunset gets later and later (about a minute a day).

But now that its here, I also hate this day. For we have swung the pendulum the opposite way. From this day forward each afternoon will get shorter. A little a first and then a head long plunge into winter, culminating with the winter solstice on December 21st.

So summer is "officially" here, enjoy the season with family and friends, I know I will. Peace. Tuesday May 24, 2011

Staggering tornado numbers, what's going on?

If you follow numbers and history, check out all this data from NOAA, SPC, Associated Press, and Dr. Jeff Masters WonderBlog:

The Joplin, MO tornado has claimed 116 lives, making it the deadliest single tornado since 1936 when tornadoes hit Tupelo, MS (216 killed) and Gainesville, GA (203 killed). The Storm Prediction Center rates the Joplin tornado as the 9th deadliest of all time.

This year's tornado death toll now stands at 482, making it the deadliest year for tornadoes in the U.S. since 1953, when 519 people died. That year, three heavily populated cities received direct hits by violent tornadoes. Waco, Texas (114 killed), Flint, Michigan (115 killed), and Worcester, Massachusetts (89 – 94 killed) all were hit by violent F-4 or F-5 tornadoes. A similar bad tornado year occurred in 1936, when violent tornadoes hit Tupelo Mississippi (216 killed), and Gainesville, Georgia (203 killed.)

2011 has been a year for twisters. On April 14 - 16, we had the largest tornado outbreak in world history, with 162 tornadoes hitting the Southeast U.S. That record lasted just two weeks, when the unbelievable April 25 – 28 Super Outbreak hit. Unofficially, that outbreak had 327 tornadoes, more than double the previous record. The legendary April 3 – 4 1974 Super Outbreak has now fallen to third place, with 148 tornadoes. Damage from the April 25 – 28, 2011 outbreak was estimated to be as high as $5 billion, making it the most expensive tornado outbreak in history; the Tuscaloosa-Birmingham tornado of April 27 may end up being the most expensive tornado of all-time—until the damage from Sunday's Joplin tornado is tabulated. Unofficially, 660 tornadoes hit the U.S. in April 2011, making it the busiest tornado month in history. The previous record was 542 tornadoes, set in May 2003. The previous April tornado record was 267, set in 1974, and April has averaged just 161 tornadoes over the past decade.

So what's going on? Why are there so many tornadoes, and so many people getting killed? Well, the high death toll this year is partly bad timing and storm locations. Violent EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes usually miss heavily populated areas, and we've had the misfortune of having two such tornadoes track over cities with more than 50,000 people (the Joplin tornado, and the Tuscaloosa-Birmingham EF-4 tornado in Alabama, which killed 61 people on April 27.) This was also the case in 1953, when F-5 tornadoes hit Flint, Worcester, and Waco, and in 1936, when F-5s hit Tupelo and Gainesville. However, this year's death toll is more remarkable than the 1953 or 1936 death tolls, since in 2011 we have Doppler radar and a modern tornado warning system that is very good at providing an average of twelve minutes of warning time. The warning time for the Joplin tornado was 24 minutes. The first ever NWS tornado warning wasn't issued until 1948, and virtually all tornadoes from the 1950s and earlier hit with no warning. On average, tornado deaths in the United States decreased from 8 per 1 million people in 1925 to 0.12 per 1 million people in 2000. Had this year's tornadoes occurred 50 years ago the death toll would have likely been in the thousands.

Tornadoes require two main ingredients for formation—instability and wind shear. Instability is at a maximum when there is record warm air with plenty of moisture at low levels, and cold dry air aloft. April 2011 sea surface temperature in the Gulf of Mexico were at their third highest levels of the past 100 years, so there was plenty of warm, moist air available to create high instability, whenever approaching storm systems pulled the Gulf air northwards into Tornado Alley, and brought cold, dry air south from Canada. The La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific, in part, caused this spring's jet stream to have very strong winds that changed speed and direction with height. This sort of shearing force (wind shear) was ideal for putting a twist on thunderstorm updrafts, allowing more numerous and more intense tornadoes than usual to occur.

More to worry about; the tornado season is still happening (especially in the Midwest and Northern Plains) and then there is the threat of tornadoes from land falling tropical systems. 2011 could be one for the record books by year’s end. Peace

Friday May 20, 2011

Summer is near, look out for a busy hurricane season.

After a cool week, summer like weather is rolling in for the weekend and it will stay for a long while. Hurricane season starts on June 1st and as I reported here on this site and on the air, the prediction from NOAA is for an active season. Of course it only takes one land falling storm to have a huge impact. Always remember that Hurricane Andrew in 1992 happened in a quiet year, while last year was extremely active with 19 named storms (the average is 11) and we had two cat 4 storms at one time, but no issues with the U.S. coast.

It has been five years since a major hurricane has hit the U.S., we are long overdue and I sure that other tropical predictors will call for a busy season.

I am heading to the Kenny Chesney concert tonight with my lovely wife, so summer must be near. One more week of school for many and then its beach time! I hope you can spend a little family time in the coming weeks, it’s what really matters. Please don’t forget the tornado victims, they still need our help. Peace.

Wednesday May 4, 2011

Images I will not forget, one for the ages

A week ago the world changed for many people across the southeast. We knew it was going to be bad, no one thought it would be that devastating. 15 people killed in our state, neighborhoods and small towns altered forever. What took a minute to destroy will take years to heal.

I was sent to Tuscaloosa Alabama the day after to tell the stories of Georgians at the University of Alabama. What I saw and heard has changed me. I kept thinking, as a parent, you can imagine plenty of terrible stuff happening to your child when you send them to college, but to have them killed by a tornado is not on the list. While the campus was spared, the student body was not. I have seen my share of tornado damage, this was surreal. The video does not capture it. You can see why hundreds are still missing. How can homes and businesses just disappear?

Check out the numbers from the NWS:

• To date, NOAA estimates the outbreak spawned 305 tornadoes, making this the largest tornado outbreak in history – surpassing the April 3-4, 1974 outbreak with 148 tornadoes. So far, the National Weather Service has surveyed damage from 178 tornadoes and determined that two topped the scale at EF-5, four were EF-4, and 21 were EF-3. Dozens more have been categorized as EF-2 or lower.

• NOAA estimates there were more than 600 tornadoes during the month of April 2011, shattering previous records. The previous April tornado record was 267, set in 1974. The previous record number of tornadoes during any month was 542, set in May 2003. So far there have been an estimated 881 tornadoes in 2011. The annual tornado record is 1,817, set in 2004. May is historically the most active month for tornadoes.

• With an estimated 327 deaths, this is the 3rd deadliest tornado outbreak on record, behind 1925 with 747 and 1932 with 332. So far, 2011 is the 13th deadliest year for tornadoes on record with 369. The deadliest year on record is 1925 with 794.

Please continue to help these victims, they will need that and our prayers for a long time to come. Peace.

Monday April 11, 2011

Back from Spring Break...Cooler air ahead, but not Freezing and that's almost a record!

The Florida panhandle last week was Atlanta South. Imagine if Atlanta was where Montgomery is..folks would be at the beach nearly every weekend. If you haven't been to Destin/Ft. Walton Beach, the color of the water and the sand would surprise you. Nice to be back tracking storms with our new dual pol radar.

If you think its been warm lately, you are correct. Check out this info from my friends at the National Weather Service:

The last freeze observed at Atlanta's Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport, the official observation site for Atlanta, occurred on February 12, 2011. This is the earliest last freeze date since 1945, when the last freeze of that winter season was on February 9th. Since temperature records for Atlanta began in 1878, there have only been five other years when the last freeze of the winter season occurred before March 1st, namely February 5, 1880, February 9, 1945, February 26, 1961, February 16, 1985 and February 25, 1989. The average last freeze date for Atlanta is March 20th. Except for this year, all last freeze dates have been in March or late since 2000. The latest last freeze date in Atlanta since records have been kept was April 25, 1910.

Pretty cool stuff..Peace.

Wednesday March 16, 2011

Getting warm and dry, News from the Hurricane Center

I am looking at some dry days ahead and with temps nearing 80, it will certainly not feel like mid-March. We were doing just fine with rainfall, as area lakes and streams are at or above normal levels. But March is typically our wettest month, so we need some rain events to reach that total in the next two weeks.

Even though its getting warmer, don’t get fooled into planting tender plants. I still see one more shot of freezing temps our way before we put a lid on winter. Spring officially arrives on March 20th at 7:21pm.

Check this out from the National Hurricane Center:

Two tropical cyclone names in the Atlantic were retired from the official name rotation by the World Meteorological Organization’s hurricane committee because of the deaths and damage they caused in 2010. The committee issues the list of potential names for tropical cyclones to be used every six years for both the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins. The names Igor and Tomas in the Atlantic would have appeared again in 2016 but will no longer be used. In their places will be Ian and Tobias.

Details of the retired 2010 named storms are shown below:

• Igor was a classic Cape Verde hurricane, reaching Category 4 strength with 155 mph winds on Sept. 14, while located about 600 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. The storm weakened to a Category 1 hurricane when it struck Bermuda on Sept. 19. Igor grew in size, with the area of tropical-storm-force winds becoming roughly 750 nautical miles wide. Igor made landfall on Sept. 21 near Cape Race, Newfoundland. It was the most damaging hurricane on that island in 75 years. Igor killed three people along its path. Damage in Newfoundland is placed at almost $200 million U.S. dollars.

• Tomas became a hurricane on October 30 shortly after striking Barbados. It strengthened to a Category 2 storm striking St. Vincent and St. Lucia, becoming the latest hurricane on record (1851-present) to strike the Windward Islands. After weakening to a tropical depression over the central Caribbean Sea, Tomas regained Category 1 strength on November 5 and moved between Jamaica and the southwest peninsula of Haiti, through the Windward Passage. It weakened just below hurricane strength before reaching the Turks and Caicos Islands. Fourteen people are confirmed as dead, or missing, on St. Lucia. Total damage there is estimated to be around $500 million U.S. dollars. Heavy rains associated with Tomas triggered floods and landslides in Haiti. Haiti’s meteorological services states that the death toll in Haiti was 35.

I am ready for March madness, I haven’t finished my bracket yet. Stay tuned. Peace.

Friday March 4, 2011

Heavy rain and questions on tornado sirens.

Looking for some “gulley washers” this weekend, which begs the question, do the youth of today know what a gulley is? Rain will soak parts of the metro area, but it will be welcomed. March is on average our wettest month with over 5 inches of rain. I see several great opportunities for rain in the next two weeks.

Some minor flooding of the usual suspects is expected, but nothing major. The wedge is keeping us cool tonight and the first half of tomorrow.

This week I reported that there is not a statewide standardization of when communities sound their tornado sirens. The criteria differs from county to county and city to city. This should be addressed. Georgia’s Emergency Management Agency (GEMA) tells me they will help local agencies with grants to pay for a warning system , but will leave the operation of such a system up to the local authorities. I think the criteria should be uniform.

Next week is the “man-cation”. 8 guys heading to Florida for 4 days of golf and more golf. This year we are adding Ryder Cup type event, The Lewie Cup, in memory of our buddy Lew..should be a large time. Peace.

Wednesday February 23, 2011

Spring storm season is near, you need a weather radio.

Our weather focus is shifting gears this week. I am no longer searching the data and models for a snow/ice threat, now it is severe weather season. If you recall, last late winter and spring was very quiet when it came to severe storms. 2011 is looking a lot more active. North Georgia has a chance to see strong to severe storms on Friday and again early next week.

Once again WSB-TV is working with Midland radio and Kroger to make available to you a portable severe weather radio. This is a must have if you spend time outdoors (golf, boating, camping, and youth athletics). For only $34.99 you can keep your family in the know when you are away from the television. Check out the story on this very website on the weather tab section.

I hope you have enjoyed our mild to warm weather the past 10 days. I had an awesome day on Sunday playing golf with my Dad and daughter. Life does not get any better than. I am blessed. Peace.

Tuesday February 15, 2011

Bet you didn't know this:

As I was researching this story: http://www.wsbtv.com/weather/26859494/detail.html I was taken aback by this statistic, In terms of revenue, Georgia produces more blueberries than peaches each year. I knew that we led the way with pecans, but evidently blueberries have become big business. The climate in SE Georgia around Alma is perfect for that species of fruit.

I also learned (I really already knew, but this reassured it) that its more important who you share Valentine's Day dinner with than where. My wife's first choice turned out to be a bust last night, so we resorted to wings and fries and made an everlasting memory..Peace.

Monday February 7, 2011

Enough already, so how about a change?

A change in the wind? Say it’s so..The winter of 2010-2011 just keeps on giving and while it has not been one for the record books for North Georgia, it has certainly been memorable. With a few more winter weather threats ahead, there are signs that a pattern shift is about to take place. The Arctic Oscillation that has overtaken the usual effects of a strong La Nina has turned positive. That means the southeast will be spared repeated arctic air outbreaks. Yes we will have a few cold snaps, but nothing lengthy toward the end of the month.

A positive to our dreary weather, Lake Lanier is at full pool for the first time since last August. Storage of water will be beneficial if we do indeed turn dry for the spring, but I don’t think that will happen.

Now that the Super Bowl has come and gone, can spring be far off.The first day of spring meteorologically speaking is March 1st. The calendar says March 20th. And what was with that entertainment for Super Bowl halftime? That’s the best we can come up with? Please…Peace.

Thursday January 27, 2011

Has it been this long??? Finally a break.

Just like little groundhogs, we will pop out of our burrows this weekend to sunshine and milder temperatures. If you think its been a long cold winter on your weekends you are correct. Since late November Atlanta has been either chilly or wet or both on the weekend..Well not this weekend my friend, as a ridge of high pressure builds east. Check out this table on where we have been:

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ATLANTA WEEKEND HIGH TEMPS           DATES SAT HIGH SUN HIGH 11/20, 21 69 72 11/27, 28 53 54 12/4, 5 59 48 12/11, 12 49 47 12/18, 19 42 47 12/25, 26 40 31 1/1, 2 62 55 1/8, 9 48 34 1/15, 16 50 54 1/22, 23 43 46

Right now both weekend days could top 60 degrees. But I must caution you, don't get fooled. Winter is coming back and it will within the week. So enjoy. peace.

Wednesday January 19, 2011

Nice pub from the Snowmagoden 2011

Finally the last of the snow has left my yard. While the ground still looks and feels soggy, most of metro Atlanta and North Georgia is in a rainfall deficit for the winter. This is a concern since the months of Dec thru March, is our winter recharge period for the area lakes, streams and ground water tables. We are still in drought watch for the upcoming spring and summer.

Here is a link and copy to a nice article from local columnist Darrell Huckaby. He got everything right except where I was born..Nothing against New Jersey, but this southern boy was born in North Carolina, Winston-Salem to be precise..home of Krispy Kreme! Peace.

http://www.gwinnettdailypost.com/darrellhuckaby/headlines/HUCKABY_The_weathermans_life_during_the_big_storm_113685954.html

David Chandley is a heck of a guy — and has impeccable timing. Although he was born in New Jersey and spent his childhood and youth moving around the country he returned to his parents’ roots and entered the University of Georgia in 1980. He was a trainer for the 1980 Georgia Bulldogs who were the “undefeated, untied, undisputed and undenied champions of college football,” in the words of the inimitable Dan Magill. That’s pretty high cotton and in and of itself would put him near the top of my list.

Chandley graduated from UGA with a degree in broadcast journalism and since 1988 has worked for WSB-TV in Atlanta. I have watched him for his entire 23-year career, and his warmth and professionalism have made him one of my very favorite local celebrities.

Plus I tailgate with his mama and them, and his mother, Katherine, keeps me well fed in the fall.

Sometimes, when he is not busy informing the North Georgia Piedmont what to expect from Mother Nature, David joins us. On other days you can see him on the big screen in Sanford Stadium. David Chandley, in addition to his many other duties, is the weatherman for the Bulldog Nation — although he prefers meteorologist — which has nothing to do with the study of meteors.

If you’ve been watching WSB-TV over the past week or so, you have seen plenty of David, as well as his colleagues, Glenn Burns, Karen Minton and Brad Nitz because we are, as you well know, just now digging out from the biggest winter storm of the 10-year old century.

As the temperatures began to drop and the snow began to fall last Sunday, I found myself thinking about David. I knew that such weather events are his bread and butter. The weather people “go to the mattresses” so to speak when the S-word is in the North Georgia forecast, and I wondered about their logistics for those folks.

There they are on the tube telling all of us to stay at home and not to venture out, and yet there they are. I am almost certain that David Chandley doesn’t have a magic sleigh and eight tiny reindeer. I wondered how he got to work and how long he stayed. I wondered about his wardrobe — he always dresses well on television — and where he slept and what he ate.

I decided to go straight to the source. I called David and asked him those things, and he very graciously provided the answers. OK. Most of them. He refused to speculate on what the groundhog would do next month.

If you have ever wondered about what goes on behind the scenes in the Storm Center during a Southern snow storm, this is your lucky day, for I am about to pull back the curtain for you.

It seems that David, fresh from a three-day seminar in Huntsville, drove to the “Mothership,” which is what the television people call the WSB studio now that it can no longer be called White Columns, on Sunday evening, in anticipation of a 4 a.m. curtain call on Monday. I was happy to learn that he does get to spend a few hours each day, during such events, at a nearby hotel. The snow came a little more suddenly than anticipated, and he had to actually go on the air at 1 a.m. Sunday. At 11:30 he was still broadcasting — and had to come back for the 10 p.m. newscast. He made it back to his room and caught a few winks in the interim, but as he said, “Who can really sleep in the middle of the afternoon?”

And that is basically how it went for the next five days. He spent many, many hours on the air and got very little rest — or food — in between. He came in with grub — and clothes — for a couple of days, but when that ran out nothing was open (there are no Waffle Houses in downtown Atlanta) and nothing was moving.

He, Karen Minton and Carol Sbarge were working basically the same shifts, and he said that on a couple of occasions they had the streets of Atlanta to themselves as they walked through the storm in the middle of the night to catch a few Z’s. I would happily be snowbound for five days if I got to walk through the snow with Karen and Carol.

Tuesday night they finally had a great meal at Ted’s Montana Grill, and by Wednesday they could slide over to Atlantic Station to buy fresh clothes. By Thursday he could drive home and by Friday the ice was melting, so his ordeal was over — temporarily.

He can’t get too comfortable, though. There’s another arctic blast just around the corner.

Thursday January 13, 2011

Lessons learned from the Big Snow and Big Freeze

What I learned from Snow-apocalypse 2011:

The European weather model has performed very well in forecasting precipitation type for North Georgia. It nailed the snow for Christmas Day (off on the amounts, but was spot on for timing) and it was my model of choice for this snow event, followed by the arctic cold.

While our hours in Severe Weather Center 2 were long, at least I work inside..a huge salute to our reporters and photographers out in the field, that is the tough task of snow coverage.

Pack more food and more clothes. A great American once said (my Uncle Dan Ragsdale) “It’s better to have and not need, than to need and not have.” I ran out of food and had to go shopping for clothes on Wednesday.

Speaking of shopping, there is such thing as “man shopping” vs. lady shopping. What takes the ladies so long, I’ll never know.

Driving on snow is easy, I cruised down Peachtree St when it was snowing. Driving on frozen slush is slippery, but doable. Driving on ice is scary and I want no part of it. Memorable moments from the week of snow and ice: Walking to and from the station and hotel on Peachtree St. with Karen Minton and Carol Sbarge thru snow and ice at odd hours of the day night, we resembled bag people. Watching Fred Blankenship crab walk down the hotel driveway to get to my car at 2 in the morning. The joy of getting a hot Chick-fil-A chicken biscuit on Day 3 of storm coverage was like manna from heaven.

I miss my home, wife, daughters, dogs, bed, pillow and kitchen filled with food. I hope your family weathered the storm and thanks for watching our coverage. Bring on spring! Peace.

Wednesday January 5, 2011

The unpredictable New Year

Happy New Year..Wow, 2011, what sort of weather events will highlight this year? If the start is any indication, this year will bring uncertainty. Here we are in the midst of a moderate La Nina and our overall weather pattern does not reflect that, while the short term forecasts have been spot on, the long range outlook has been wrong.

As stated earlier on this page and website, the plan was for the winter of 2011 to be warmer and drier than the averages. Yes winter is far from over, but if this was a football game, we are way behind in the first quarter. December was cooler and drier than the average, but with above average snowfall. The outlook for January now is colder than average with average rainfall. If we do get an extended period of arctic air, the risk for snow and ice will be higher.

I have a sense that this will be a wild year for weather and the big story may be land-falling tropical systems this summer and fall. We shall see and I hope you will watch it with us. Peace.

Monday December 27, 2010

The Historic Christmas Day Snow

What a Christmas weekend!! How about that, a White Christmas for Atlanta. Officially 1.2” of snow at Hartsfield-Jackson Int’l Airport, which is measurable snow for 12-25. That is the first time that has happened since 1882. No doubt a once in a lifetime event. Snow totals were very impressive for North Georgia. Many areas saw 1-3 inches, with higher amounts over the mountains. The winner was both Cherry Log in Gilmer county and Suches in Union county, with 7”.

Looking back the forecast for the snow was just about spot on. Forecasting snow and ice in North Georgia is the most difficult to accurately predict. Several days out, it appeared that North Georgia would get rain changing to snow on Christmas Day. The only area that was missed was the snowfall totals in the mountains. I didn’t see 5 to 7 inches, but I don’t think any of those folks are complaining.

I hope you took plenty of photos of our rare snow event. The odds of that happening again on Christmas Day are astronomical.

Now it looks like a big pattern change into January, we shall see if a true La Nina winter (warmer and drier) is in our future. Peace.

Thursday November 18, 2010

Go outside this weekend...or else..and Important water meeting

We are rolling into the early stages of winter over the next several weeks. This weekend (Nov 20-21) will be the nicest for the foreseeable future. So if you want to do anything in the outdoors, and not have to fight the cold or rain (or worse) this is the weekend to do it. Climatology tells me that the average highs and lows will drop into the 50s and 30s respectively, and the amount of daylight is dwindling. In addition, I see a major pattern change as we move into December that suggests a lengthy cold snap. So, you have been warned.

There is an Interesting meeting taking place today and tomorrow down in Albany concerning the prospects of a drought this spring. I will monitor what comes out of the many discussions around climate, forecasts and water issues.

I am excited for the holiday season that is upon us. Honored to be part of the annual Macy’s Great Tree Lighting at Lenox Square on Thanksgiving night. If you can’t join us in person, be sure to tune in at 7pm on Thursday night. Peace.

Tuesday November 9, 2010

Nice for now..just wait and what's a red flag warning?

You better soak in the warm sunshine this week..This is not “normal” for November, so you know the other foot will drop. It will next week with a good chance for rain and then much colder air will spill into our state before Thanksgiving.

When it gets this dry, the National Weather Service issues a Red Flag Warning. This means there is high fire danger, brush and forest fire risk is higher due to the low soil moisture. Of course this is a major concern for local fire departments and the forestry industry, but little interest to the mainstream. I bring this up because many of our fine viewers say they are tired of this warning triggering their phone or computer. Me too. I spoke with the NWS and they say they have strict guidelines on how and when to issue a red flag warning. So I am trying to work with our computer folks to remove it from our automotive alert program. Stay tuned. Peace.

Monday November 1, 2010

November can be wild when it comes to weather

Welcome to November! This can be quite a weather month for North Georgia. We will see wide spread freezing temperatures, beautiful sunny days, and the prospect of severe storms all in the next 30 days.

The late surge of rainfall helped the totals for October. New possible drought information will come out this week.

Election Day is tomorrow. Check out the relationship between weather and voter turnout here: http://www.wsbtv.com/politics/25591403/detail.html

We are hurting in Dawg nation. I cannot believe Georgia has lost to Florida 18 times in the past 21 games. At least Halloween has come and gone. It is my least favorite holiday. Didn’t like it as a kid, still don’t like it as an adult. Now Thanksgiving is a different story. I can already taste the turkey and dressing. Peace.

Thursday October 21, 2010

Update on our dryness, and checking out the leaves.

With another weather-less cold front heading our way, the dry air will be reinforced. As stated previously, October is usually our driest month, with rainfall totals picking up in November and December. Here are the latest numbers for ATL:

THROUGH 10/20/2010:

ATLANTA HARTSFIELD-JACKSON AP RAINFALL DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL TOTAL NORMAL DEPARTURE PERCENT RAINFALL VALUE FROM OF NORMAL NORMAL

1 MONTH (LAST 30 DAYS) 1.52 3.29 -1.77 46% 3 MONTH (LAST 90 DAYS) 6.61 11.16 -4.55 59% 6 MONTH (LAST 180 DAYS) 23.16 23.24 -0.08 100% 1 YEAR (LAST 365 DAYS) 55.01 50.20 4.81 110%

There has been little change in the Drought Monitor for North Georgia. Some of the western counties are still in what is considered a mild drought. The rest of the metro area is abnormally dry. The NE corner of the state, including the basin of Lake Lanier is doing just fine.

Great weekend for leaf viewing in the North Georgia mountains. Check out the latest here:

http://www.wsbtv.com/weather/21151084/detail.html

I will tracking some wet weather opportunities next week. Peace.

Friday October 15, 2010

The crispness of Fall and Frost formation

With the arrival of very dry air, this weekend will certainly have the “feel” of Fall. The mornings will be crisp and clear and then the afternoons will be sunny and warm. Statistically October is our driest month when it comes to rainfall and so far this month that has been the case.

While some spots hit the 30s this morning, the wind kept the atmosphere stirred up and that prevented any frost formation. That might not be the case by Sunday morning. Atlanta’s average date for frost in the Fall is October 25th. Our average date for the Fall freeze is November 10th. So what’s the difference, well the first freeze is the date we officially hit 32 degrees. While the first frost is the date we see frost formation.

Here is a great definition of frost: A deposit of tiny, white ice crystals on a surface. Frost forms through sublimation, when water vapor in the air condenses at a temperature below freezing. It gets its white color from tiny air bubbles trapped in the ice crystals.

Enjoy the ballgames and leaf viewing. Peace.

Monday October 11, 2010

Record heat and Dawg concerns.

Atlanta tied the all-time record high on Monday of 86, last set in 1954. That number is 12 degrees above the average. The warm weather will continue into mid-week before a cold front knocks us back into the 70s.

We remain dry, but not all that unexpected in October which is our driest month of the year. The 16th named storm of the tropical season was born today; Tropical Storm Paula will batter Honduras and inch toward the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.

Heading to Athens on Saturday for Homecoming at UGA. While the Dawgs win over UT was welcomed, the other news out of Athens is disappointing. Peace.

Monday, October 4, 2010

Autumn chill, UGA and the Braves:

Our move into October has been a cool one. Temperatures are running about 10 degrees below the average for both the highs and lows. On Monday morning, Atlanta hit 45, that was our coolest start to the day since back on April 28. 45 is not the record though, 39 back in 1987 holds that mark, but it is well below the average of 57. Some spots in North Georgia hit the 30s, but no frost was reported..that will come.

I enjoyed 5 days out in Boulder, CO this past week as the Bulldogs traveled west. The result of the game was not what we wanted, but the views are spectacular. It was odd being out there with 5000 Georgia fans and have Coloradoans ask why were there? College football is not important to those folks and that is a shame.

Nice to see the Braves back in post season baseball. They just may make a run at this thing for Bobby Cox. I guess we will be staying up late watching baseball later this week. Looks like the weather will be cool out in San Fran, but dry. Peace.

Tuesday September 28, 2010

After the rain, its still dry, but the lake is fine

Before the rainfall of the past several days, it was getting dry across North Georgia. Many stream flows were well below the seasonal average and yards were getting crispy. With the drought of 2007-2008 still fresh in our minds, there is concern we are heading that way again. As I stated on this page earlier, the early signs of drought will be more agricultural than hydrological.

This week’s level at Lake Lanier is near 1069’ or two feet below full summer pool, but well above the seasonal average of 1065’. For comparison purposes, the level on October 1, 2007 was 1058’ as the lake level was heading to its all time record low of 1051’ in December of 2007. In October of 2008, the level was still very low at 1053. Keep in mind that late fall and early winter is the typical recharge period for our area lakes, rivers and streams.

As anticipated, our weather changed over the weekend and now it feels like Fall. Enjoy the cool nights and sunny mild days, minus the humidity. Peace.

Tuesday September 21, 2010

What we have learned from the floods of 09

A year ago, North Georgia was battling an epic flood. Record rainfall brought with it record flooding, the likes we may never see again. However it will flood again somewhere, so what did we learn that will help us in the future?

I have spent many days with Kent Frantz, our state’s senior hydrologist, and Brian McCallum, the head of the local office for the U.S. Geological Survey. Their agencies have poured (no pun intended) over data from the floods to come up with new procedures in the future:

There are now 7 new gages in metro Atlanta to deliver timely river/creek levels. The 20 gages wiped out by the floods have all been replaced and are now set higher than the record flood height. The National Weather Service weather radio will be activated when rivers and creeks reach major flood stage.

The USGS has implemented the water alert program, so you can get river/creek levels sent right to your phone or computer. The USGS has installed a live web cam along Peachtree Creek for 24/7 viewing of the creek with the hopes to add more cameras in the near future. New flood inundation maps will go online in the next 6 months for Peachtree Creek. These maps will show real time data and flood impacts on areas along the creek. Again the plan is for this program to be recreated for other major rivers and creeks.

As the summer of 2010 closes, it’s time to get rid of the heat. Look for some relief this weekend with cooler temps and rain. That will be welcomed. Peace.

Thursday September 16, 2010

Disturbing news and the tropics are roaring

The latest news is not good coming from our state climatologist, David Stooksbury at UGA. He says that parts of West Georgia are now in a mild drought and that most of the state is abnormally dry. Check out his latest report here:

For the first time since 1998, the Atlantic basin has 3 hurricanes at the same time. Igor, Julia and Karl will be causing problems for days to come. Right now major hurricane Igor is a threat to Bermuda late this weekend and next week. Julia will bother no one but Atlantic shipping lanes. Karl is heading toward Mexico with the potential of flooding rains.

I had a wonderful time on Wednesday at our annual Braves Weather Day at Turner Field. The Severe Weather Team talked to 2500 students about weather safety, weather forecasting, and gave a behind the scenes look at our profession. Enjoy the photos and more details here: Peace.

Monday September 13, 2010

A change in the air and the height of hurricane season.

While the season of summer officially ends on September 22nd, there is a change in the air this week. Yes there will be plenty of sunshine and highs will reach to the mid and upper 80s, but the humidity will remain low and that will allow the overnight lows to dip into the 50s.

The lower humidity and stable air also prevents the buildup of any late day t-storms, so our weather pattern will remain rain free into the weekend.

With this week being the peak week of hurricane season, it is no surprise to have two named storms and one more trying to form. While Hurricane Igor and Tropical Storm Julia pose no threat to the U.S., I say keep an eye out on the Gulf of Mexico in October.

Next week will be the one year anniversary of the epic floods of North Georgia; I’ll show you what we learned and what has changed with reports at 5 and 6. Peace.

Wednesday September 1 2010

Summer is over, time for some hurricanes and football

Summer is done..at least the way we see it. September 1st is the end of meteorological summer. The autumnal equinox is not until September 22nd at 11:09pm, but no doubt you have felt the changes from the searing summer heat and humidity.

Our first big shot of continental air will come this weekend and that means many parts of North Georgia will see overnight lows in the 50s!

As of today, we have 3 named storms in the Atlantic basin and the waves will continue to roll off the African coast. Remember, the peak of hurricane season is not until mid September and often the Gulf Mexico gets active again in October. It should be a very interesting next 60 days.

Oh and its football season, Go Parkview Panthers, Go Georgia Dawgs, and Go Falcons..I love it. Peace.

Tuesday August 17

Tropical moisture hangs around and its almost football time

Tropical Depression #5 never made it to Tropical Storm status, but it certainly changed our weather for the better. Prior to its arrival, we were stuck under the heat dome that produced temps in the mid to upper 90s during the day and mid to upper 70s at night. With the heat and sinking air, t-storms were scarce and some parts of North Georgia were getting dry. In fact our state climatologist, David Stooksbury, even mention the “d” word (drought) in his latest statement.

Well, all this tropical moisture has changed all that. While everyone doesn’t see rain everyday, everyday some one is seeing rain. We call that scattered showers and they will persist for the next several days. The tropical air also produces clouds in the morning and that in turn tempers the temperatures from rising quickly in the afternoon.

I do think the hottest air of the summer season is behind us as we transition into late summer and early fall. I expect more tropical activity to develop in the next 30 days.

My favorite time of the year is almost here..football season. There is not a better team sport ever played. For success, a team will be win over an individual every time. I encourage you to take in a high school football this fall, support the school in your local community. Where else do thousands congregate in unifying support? Try it, you’ll get hooked. Peace.

Monday July 26

It's HOT, but we have been hotter..

We’ve had another week of 90+ temperatures and the real heart of summertime is still a week away. It sure seems like it has been a hot and dry summer, but has it really? A closer look at the numbers says we are not too far from an average season.

For July 2010, our average daily temperature is 2 degrees above average. In July of 2009, we ended up 2 degrees below average. In July 2008, Atlanta was average in July. In July 2007, 1.5 degrees below average and then in July 2006 we were 1 degree above average. Somehow it always works itself out. July 2010 just seems hotter, because the overnight lows are staying in the mid to upper 70s and that usually occurs right after sunrise.

As far as rainfall goes, we are doing awesome. Check this out: Atlanta has a surplus for the past 30 days, 90 days, 6 months, and an unreal 22 inch surplus for the past year. Those random afternoon t-storms are doing their thing, and we haven’t even had a tropical system roll our way.

Can you believe school starts soon, for some areas it’s later this week, for others it’s within the next two weeks. Summer vacation isn’t what it once was..Peace.

Thursday July 15

Sitting on a tropical powder keg, waiting on a hurricane.

New information on global weather and it may mean the tropical season for the Atlantic basin is about to get real busy. We are now transitioning from an El Nino (warmer sea surface temperatures in the Pacific) to a La Nina pattern (cooler than average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific). Not only that, but data tells me we have flipped the switch in a big way and the projection is for a moderate La Nina to be in full swing by the end of August.

Couple that with the record warmth of sea surface temperatures in the Eastern Atlantic this summer, and that is a perfect recipe for an increase number of tropical storms and hurricanes, and an increase in the intensity of the storms that do form.

Yes it has been quiet so far this tropical season, only one named storm, but the peak of hurricane season is still two months away. All the forecasts I can find still call for an active period. Check out this composite:

23 named storms: PSU statistical model 20 named storms: UKMET dynamical model 19 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes: NOAA 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 5 intense hurricanes: Colorado State Univ. (Phil Klotzbach/Bill Gray) 17.7 named storms, 9.5 hurricanes, 4.4 intense hurricanes: TSR, hybrid statistical/dynamical model technique 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes: FSU dynamical model 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes: climatology

We are ready in Severe Weather Center 2 for this hurricane season. Peace.

Thursday June 24

Oil on the beach, tomatoes getting ripe

For many, the oil spill is now very real and heartbreaking. We have seen and heard the stories from Louisiana, but now that there is oil Pensacola Beach, many Georgians are horrified. With the leak barely capped, more oil is destined for more beaches. On this day the wind shifted from the east to the south and that pushed the gooey mess ashore.

I have a few more concerns other than the wind. First off, a tropical system would be devastating to hundreds of miles of shoreline. Also there has been plenty of talk about the loop current, what isn’t mention is the eddy current that the loop current can produce. That eddy current would spin more oil toward the coast. I am just sick about the possibilities.

While the heat continues for North Georgia, the t-storm risk will go up this weekend. Right now the soil moisture is fine and my tomato plants are looking good. A fresh tomato sandwich is about a week away. Peace.

Wednesday June 9

Summer storms likely, El Nino is dead, 50 wonderful years.

With the season of summer officially arriving on June 21st, get ready for some active weather the next several months. I say this for a couple of reasons. First, our soil moisture has been replenished and that will help fuel afternoon and evening pop up t-storms. As discussed previously, the risk for flash flooding during these slow moving storms has increased, so these random t-storms will produce problems.

Secondly, all indications point to the death of El Nino in the Pacific and now the likelihood is high that we will flip from a neutral pattern to a La Nina later this summer. While that could mean searing summer heat for metro Atlanta, it can also mean a very busy tropical season. The next three months could be a wild ride..so hold on.

This weekend my parents will be celebrating their 50th wedding anniversary, quite an accomplishment. I was blessed to grow up in a home filled with love and laughter, two of the most important ingredients in a successful marriage. Congrats to Frank and Kat, you have set a wonderful example for all. Peace.

Wednesday May 26

Honor our heroes, feeling like summer and a speech for seniors

Memorial Day weekend is the “unofficial” start to the summer season and this year it should really feel like summer. I am expecting warm and humid conditions with t-storms possible especially in the late afternoon. I would not move my outdoor plans, just be weather aware and if there is lightning and thunder in the area, please get away from the pool and lake.

I am thankful to all those who have served in our nation’s military and can never repay the debt of those who gave the ultimate sacrifice. Be sure to thank a vet this weekend, I know I will. I was honored to deliver the baccalaureate to Parkview High School and for those that asked, here is that speech, Peace.

PHS Baccalaureate May 23, 2010 David Chandley WSB-TV Atlanta

Class of 2010, or the X, you made it. Congratulations. But this not the end of something, your graduation marks the beginning of something grand. So how does the “weather guy” know this? Well I am more than just a pretty face that tells you when it’s going to rain or when the storms are heading toward Mountain Park Park..I have years of experience to tell you that “THE BEST IS YET TO COME.”

That is my motto in life and I still believe everyday that the best is yet to come, and the way I see it, that philosophy has been pretty good so far. I am blessed to have a loving wife, two beautiful daughters, an unbelievable career, good health, and spiritually sound through my savior Jesus Christ. For the bible tells me in Jeremiah 29:11, I know what I'm doing. (This is God talking and he is talking to me and to you) I have it all planned out—plans to take care of you, not abandon you, plans to give you the future you hope for. So see the, the best is yet to come.

So how does the weather guy know all this, well look at what has happened since you started school back in the late 90s. cell phones, text messaging, camera phones, laptop computers, texting, high speed wireless internet, facebook, texting, HD tv, not to mention the advances in medicine from lasik eye surgery, to conquering many types of cancer, and it goes on and on. Since you entered the halls of PHS, the way we communicate has gotten easier and better and still the best is yet to come. But please do me a favor, tone down the texting, did you know that his device will carry your voice, talk to people, better yet talk to people face to face. Inter personal communication skills will carry you much further than a text message.

Now before I show you how I know “the best is yet to come” in your life, I have an apology to make. An apology from my generation to yours. We, the baby boomers, have created you, the T-ballers, and I am sorry. What’s a t-baller? Well think back when you played t-ball or midget soccer, at the end of the season everyone got a trophy. It didn’t matter how well you performed, everybody got a trophy so we wouldn’t hurt any feelings, we wanted it to be fair..Well t-ballers, wake up, life isn’t fair. The world doesn’t give everybody a game ball just for showing up. Now you get the game ball by excelling, by being the best. I am sorry that we coddled you, but you can overcome that and when you do you will see that the best is yet to come..

Okay, so now you are wondering how can I ensure that the best is yet to come. Give me some direction and show me the way. Here are 10 nuggets that will never lead you down the wrong path and if you follow most of them, you will see that the best is yet come.

1) Always pray: Here’s the way I see it. I or you were not placed on this earth by accident. There wasn’t a puff of wind and presto there you are. You were created by the Creator and I know my heavenly Father makes no mistakes. I thank him every day, several times a time for giving me life, for blessing me with a family and this community. I asked for guidance and wisdom in decisions I make. I am not worthy of his sacrifice by his son Jesus, but I will accept his grace and love. Prayer will keep your focus on what is really important and not the distractions of the world. Pray to start your day, pray at night, I pray in the car, at a meal, in the elevator, just pray. God loves it when we talk to him.

2) Exercise. Take a walk: Take a run, hit the gym, do something that will kick in the endorphins. Check out this fine specimen. Take care of your body; it’s the only one you get. Practice good habits. Try this, I have been told by a world class athlete that by doing anything 40 times in a row creates a habit. So why not make exercise a part of your daily life. In the Bible it is said that the religious leaders of Jesus’ time asked what is the greatest commandment? In other words what should we do first? Jesus replied in Mark 12:30 “Love the Lord God with all your heart and with all your soul and with all your mind and with all your strength. We are commanded to be fit, God wants us physically strong so we can ensure that the best is yet to come.

3) Continue to learn: I love to find out something new everyday. I am so glad that God and Al Gore didn’t invent the internet when I was a kid, I would have been the ultimate computer nerd. Talk to my younger sister, she tells people I used to read the encyclopedia for fun. I love information, that’s why I am in the information and communication business. You have heard it before, knowledge is power, it’s what helped break down the old Soviet Union and it tore down the Berlin Wall. Yes you can always go back to school to learn, get a masters, a specialist degree, a doctorate, but I love learning by asking questions. Ask the auto mechanic how something works, ask the nurse what that b.p. reading means, ask that serviceman or woman what basic training was like. Ask and you will know. know and you have learned. Never quit learning.

4) Pursue joy, not happiness: Happy comes and goes, joy is lasting. Here is an example for you. Everybody loves ice cream, stop by Brewsters and watch people eat ice cream, no one is crying or sad or angry, when you eat ice cream you are happy. You want to see joy, take some ice cream to that elderly person that lives on your street, check the joy in their face when you show up with a smile and a dish of mint chocolate chip. There is joy in doing something for someone when they least expect it. Joy is an emotion that cuts to the soul. In the Bible, happy is referenced 32 times, joy is mentioned several hundreds. Jesus himself said in the Book of John, that his way is not to be dreary, but he desires his disciples and in turn, our joy, to be complete. Happy is fleeting, joy is lasting.

5) Enjoy your family and friends: Look around you now, the friendships you have developed here at Parkview should be treasured. But I am here to tell you that there are better friendships yet to come. Some of my dearest friends, the ones you can call in the middle of the night, I did not know in high school, nor in college. These relationships were developed through involvement with our children. That was the common link. So I am saying your best friends, you still haven’t met. As for family, well that’s another issue. My Dad always told me there are two things in life you can’t choose..your family and your boss, so you’ve got to learn to deal with both of them. Here is an idea and challenge for you to enrich your family and friends relationships. Spend more time with those over 70 and under 6. I love talking to our seniors. They have so much to offer if you just listen. Somebody in their 70s was born in the 1930’s. Look at what they have experienced just by living. They grew up and turned out just fine without tv, air conditioning or fast food. You want to simplify your life carry on a conversation with a 6 year old. You want to know anybody’s family secrets ask a 6 year old, they will tell all, but that brings me to Truth number 6.

6) Don’t gossip: This is not only a David Chandley truth to ensuring the best is yet to come, but it also made the top ten list for God. You know the 10 Commandments, folks they are not the 10 suggestions, they are the commandments. Right there in Exodus chapter 20, its number nine; “You shall not give false testimony against your neighbor.” Not gossiping is hard, but once mastered you can carry like a badge of honor. If you don’t gossip, people will take note and then you can become a confident. Remember knowledge is power and the more truth you know about people the deeper the relationship can be. Think about it, who are you closest to? Family, dear friends, coaches, teachers. Those that mean the most to you, you would never gossip about and in turn if you heard gossip you would quickly defend them. Don’t gossip, it will lead you down the wrong path.

7) Guard your reputation: Your reputation, or your name is just that yours. Right or wrong we all live by labels. Look at me, I’m the tv guy. I know people say hey there’s the guy that does that weather, or hey that guy on channel 2’s daughters go to my school. That label is better than “hey there goes the guy who stole all the money from the booster club, or there’s the guy who cheated on his wife.” You have one shot to keep your reputation clean. It takes work, it takes discipline, but what of value doesn’t. Sure, people are going to (back to number 6) gossip and there is not much you can do except defend your honor. You know the truth. We have a plaque in our house that I pass by everyday. It’s a saying that I use as a prayer, it says; “God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, courage to change the things I can, and the wisdom to know the difference.”

8) No matter how you feel: get up, dress up and show up. Successful people exceed because of preparation. I don’t like the word lucky, I don’t like the concept of fortunate. You’ve heard the statement that luck is when preparation meets opportunity. I believe that. This is where my faith comes in. I know my Lord has a plan for me and nothing I do is by accident or chance or luck. Yes I have free will, I have choices, but just like a child yearns to please a parent, I so want to please my Father in heaven. If he created me in his image, I know he did not create an unmotivated, unkempt, unclean, lazy nare-do-well, I love that term, it’s my politically correct term for dumb --- redneck. Choose not to be a nare-do-well, take pride in the way you look, the way you present yourself, have a sense of confidence about you. Someone once said, “half of life, is just showing up, just don’t be late, if you are, you probably missed something important. Show up early. Here’s one for you: if you are on time, you are late.

9) Each night before you go to bed fill in the blanks: I am thankful for ______, and today I accomplished ______. That first one is easy, for there is so much to be thankful for. But I tell you one of the most important things to be thankful for is simply opportunity. You have the rest of your life ahead and for the most part it’s a clean slate. As you go on to college, or the military, or other schooling, the people you are about to meet don’t really care what happened here at Parkview. They will judge you on your actions from the day they met you. Opportunity is what you to be thankful for. Now that second part, today I accomplished _____ is a bit tougher. Not everyday can you save a life, feed the hungry, or invent something, but you can accomplish small tasks. You can speak to someone you don’t know, you can memorize a strengthening verse from the Bible, one like Philippians 4:13 “I can do everything through him who gives me strength.” You can accomplish something everyday, it just takes some effort and don’t forget to look at the small picture. Grand ideas are great, but small visions get done.

10) Do the Right thing! The director and actor Spike Lee had it right. Do the Right Thing. Come on people, most of you are at least 18 years old, you know right from wrong, if you don’t, well you have bigger issues and the consequences will be greater. Here is a simple example of doing the right thing. You are at Chick-Fil-A, you have finished your number one combo meal and you take your tray to the trash can, as you empty the contents into the can, the fry box falls off the tray and lands on the floor. Do the right thing and pick it up. It’s your fry box, it’s your responsibility, don’t wait for one of the employees to pick it up, they have other assignments. I know that’s a silly illustration, but doing the right thing on the small stuff will translate into doing the right thing on the big stuff. In our family, it’s all about choices and if you can’t make the right choice on something so small like picking up the fry box, how can I trust you to make the right choice on something big like saying no drugs and underage drinking? Oh and along the lines of doing the right thing, say please and thank you, show some respect and you want to really confuse people, smile at them.

Now Parkview High School Class of 2010, the best is yet to come, because I am almost finished, like in my world of tv, they are giving me the wrap sign. Shoot I do weather, I can talk forever especially without a script but just hear me out. Think about my 10 truths: Pray everyday, exercise, continue to learn, pursue joy, enjoy your family and friends, don’t gossip, guard your reputation, get up, dress up and show up, Be thankful and yearn for accomplishment and please Do the right thing. While these times may seem memorable and they are, be excited that your future is now a clean slate and I pray that each and everyone of you will see that the Best is Yet to Come. I leave you now with the words of the Apostle Paul writing to the young Christians in Corinth and in First Corinthians chapter 2 verse 9 he says: “No eye has seen, no ear has heard, no mind has conceived what God has prepared for those who love him.” Love God, love your neighbor and just watch your life unfold. On this day you should be excited, for you the BEST IS YET TO COME.

Have a great afternoon, and the Lord continue to bless the class of 2010.

Monday May 17

Here come some hurricanes, the summer of 2010 could be busy

The Atlantic hurricane season, which includes the Gulf of Mexico, begins on June 1st. By all indications it is going to be very active with the likelihood of land-falling storms hitting the U.S. coast higher than the seasonal averages.

The latest information is that El Nino, the warming of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, has weakened and that by mid-summer we could flip into a La Nina pattern. History tells us that pattern enhances the development of tropical systems.

Perhaps the most glaring indicator to an active hurricane season is the near record warmth of the Atlantic Ocean. Due to a weak Azores-Bermuda high during the winter months, the trade winds were weak which prevented mixing of the warmer surface water with the cooler waters down deep. Thus the Atlantic stayed warmer this winter and will in turn warm rapidly in the summer months. Warmer ocean temps help fuel the tropical waves coming off of Africa, and with little upper level shear, those waves can develop into strong hurricanes.

While climatology tells us tropical flare ups are more common in June in the Gulf of Mexico, this year the Atlantic is more likely the hot spot. The Gulf sea surface temps are cooler than average, but all indications is that they will rise rapidly in the coming weeks.

The National Hurricane Center will issue their seasonal projections on Thursday of this week. William Gray and Philip Klotzbach from Colorado State University have already stated their early season projection: 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major storms (Cat 3 or higher). They also stress a higher risk for a hurricane to hit the U.S. coast. Stay tuned.

I will be delivering the Baccalaurete speech to the senior class of Parkview High School on Sunday May 23rd. It is an honor to address these young adults and their families. In the past, I have themed my speech around my life’s motto; “the best is yet to come”. While that is still my message, I need to tweak it a bit for what I call the tee-ball generation. More to follow. Peace.

Thursday May 6

A pattern change, more flooding expected, and #1 Moms

I am looking for our storm track to move up to the north for an extended period and that means tranquil weather for most of North Georgia. A cold front will knock our temps down for Mother’s Day weekend with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s and 40s. A moderation in the afternoon highs is expected next week with little in the chance for rain and t-storms. Long range models bring some wet weather in here in about 10 days, but that is subject to change. So enjoy warm temps, comfortable humidity, little haze and smog, and low pollen for the next week.

There has been plenty of talk lately on urban sprawl and the effect it has on creek and river flooding. I have spent the past two days with experts on this, Brian McCallum with the U.S. Geological Survey (the folks that monitor the stream and river gages) and Kent Frantz, our state’s senior hydrologist (part of the National Weather Service that issues flood watches and warnings). They are in agreement that flash flooding in metro Atlanta is more of an issue now than it has ever been. While rainfall rates have not increased, the amount of impervious surfaces has. The same amount of water is falling, it just has nowhere to go. Couple that with development and debris in the waterways, events like last Monday along Peachtree Creek and Nancy Creek will keep on repeating.

The answer to combat urban creek and river flooding is not an easy one, and any idea costs money, money that municipalities do not have. All we can do in the short term is to warn folks when the water starts to rise and hope they take action. More discussion to follow.

Sunday is Mom’s day..I am blessed to have wonderful Mom, and that my daughters have the best Mom on the planet. Today is the National Day of Prayer......Amen...Peace.

Friday April 30

It's smog season, how you can help, and what I have learned this week.

As we turn the page into May, the first days should be damp and then a drying and warming trend is expected. May 1st begins the smog season for metro Atlanta. Our air quality has improved in recent years. According to the American Lung Association, Atlanta is only 19th worst city (Los Angeles is number one) when it comes to ozone pollution and 16th worst for year round particle pollution. Check out the numbers here: http://www.stateoftheair.org/

For more information on how you can help clean the air, check out Georgia’s clean air campaign here: http://www.cleanaircampaign.org/

The National Weather Service for our area is based out of Peachtree City and this week they held a workshop and seminar for the local TV media. Here are my takeaways; as El Nino weakens, the upcoming hurricane season will be active, especially in the Atlantic as sea surface temps are well above the averages. Flash flooding will be more of concern in the future due to the changing landscape of metro Atlanta (more roads and buildings, less ground to soak in the rain). With the future improvements to the NWS Doppler radars, lead time and placement of severe weather warnings will become more precise. Peace.

Wednesday April 21

April showers, May storms, and say it ain't so Bobby

Our round of April showers on Tuesday did a number on the pollen count. Wednesday’s reading was 150, way below the thousands of last week. Rainfall rates were pretty light for metro Atlanta, generally a quarter of an inch. The rest of the week will by sunny and warm.

A potent storm system is rolling this way this weekend. Right now, the severe weather threat is greatest to our west and I will be watching what develops. As stated here earlier, I am thinking our stormy days are ahead of us so be weather aware through May. With El Nino weakening this summer, it will be a joy again to watch pop t-storms in the summer afternoons. So even though April has been dry, that doesn’t mean a dry summer, I am thinking more like a “normal” Georgia summer season.

One of my favorite eateries may be closing soon. Got word that Bobby and June’s on 14th may close up on April 30th. I had to go by there to investigate and according to Bobby, the economy has gotten to him. Business at this Atlanta landmark started to slide with the closing of the 14th street bridge a few years back. Now the bridge is open, but the customers just didn’t come back…Sad. I love the folks there, Bobby, June, Judy, “Little” Bobby and Ralph. If that day comes I will miss my southern veggies and bbq. Peace.

Monday April 12

A taste of May in April, pollen is everywhere and the Masters.

Nothing like a week at the beach to recharge the batteries and it looks like I have brought beach-like weather back with me. Our upper level wind patterns indicate the next week or so will be very quiet by April standards. Temps will warm under the ridge and with the moisture from the Gulf of Mexico cut off, humidity will remain low, thus no April showers or t-storms.

Also with dry air, the nights are fairly cool, while the afternoons get pretty warm. Expect highs to be running several degrees above the average for mid-April. The pollen season is in full swing, so expect very high readings this week as all the trees seem to be pollinating at once. The trees don’t bother me, but the grass sure does and that season is about a month away.

How much fun was the Masters, congrats to Phil Mickelson on his 3rd green jacket. The emotion on the 18th green was refreshing to see, it sure seems Phil has his priorities straight. Peace.

Monday March 29

Say so long the longest winter ever, my favorite week is ahead!

While Monday is cloudy, windy and cool, real spring weather is right around the corner. For the first time this season we will see temps near the 80 degree mark by the end of the week. So is the cold air gone for good? On average the final frost for metro Atlanta is April 10th. Right now I see no cold air intrusion anytime soon, so I think winter is now GONE!!!

We are sneaking through the severe weather season with very little activity. I still think we will see our share of storms in April and May. It appears that everything has been shifted a month or so, so the prospect of damaging t-storms and tornadoes will be high for the next two months.

The first week of April is my favorite of the year. The weather is turning warmer, the dogwoods are out, the grass is greening, baseball is starting, The Masters occurs, spring break with my family, and its my birthday! Life is good. Peace.

Friday March 19

Spring is near and saluting good works

The long awaited vernal equinox will occur on Saturday at 1:32pm. At this point the sun is directly over equator as it makes its trek northbound toward the summer solstice on June 21st. It will feel like spring the next two days with sunshine and temps around 70.

Don’t get a long case of spring fever though; we are still susceptible to freezing temps until the second week of April. Don’t plant anything just yet.

I had the privilege of hosting the FCA (Fellowship of Christian Athletes) awards banquet for Gwinnett County last night. There are some remarkable high school students and coaches doing wonderful work at their respective schools. The future looks very bright. Peace.

Monday March 15

Winter hanging on, more wild weather, and an ace!

The winter of 2009-2010 will not go away. Astronomical spring begins this Saturday at 1:32pm, but it sure hasn’t felt like it. Temps again this week will be down below the average, especially the daytime highs. No real warm up is in the foreseeable future. With little warm air, strong to severe storms are unlikely in the next two weeks. This delay in our severe weather season concerns me, meaning April and May could be very busy in Severe Weather Center 2.

Also, this El Nino looks like it will weaken by early summer, allowing the hurricane season to get busy by mid- summer. We will be in store for some wild weather for the next 6 months.

I had a wonderful time on the “man-cation”. 8 guys playing golf in Florida for a few days. We battle the rain, wind, and cool temps. Mr. Royal even had an ace! Life is good. Peace.

Monday March 8

Finally tops 70, looking at a harsh Georgia winter

Well it took 122 days, but Atlanta finally topped 70 degrees on Monday. That was the warmest day since November 15, 2009. Wow..This has been one heckuva of a winter. If you are into numbers check out this from our state climatologist David Stooksbury. Plenty of great nuggets as to where this winter ranks:

Georgia’s Winter Cold and Expensive

By David Emory Stooksbury University of Georgia

This past winter was unusually cold and wet across Georgia, causing the heating demand for buildings to soar.

Climatological winter runs from December 1 to the last day in February. This winter was typical of an El Niño one for Georgia -- but on hyperdrive. The average mean daily temperature was extremely cold statewide. The daily mean temperature is calculated by taking the daily maximum temperature plus the daily minimum temperature then dividing the sum by two.

This past winter will be remembered for its long periods of below-normal temperatures. It wasn’t that Georgia experienced long periods of bitterly cold temperatures in the single digits. It was the lack of the typical warm periods between the cold periods.

The average mean temperature in north Georgia this winter was near the fourth percentile, depending on the location. Locations in south Georgia experienced mean winter temperatures near the seventh percentile. At the fourth percentile, 96 out of 100 winters would be warmer. At the seventh percentile, 93 out of 100 winters would be warmer.

The average daily minimum temperatures for the winter were around the tenth percentile statewide, except around Savannah, where the average minimum temperatures were near the fifth percentile. At the tenth percentile, 90 out of 100 winters would be warmer.

While the daily minimum temperatures were on average cold, it was the daily maximum temperatures that were the most impressively cold.

At locations across the southern half of Georgia, the average daily maximum temperatures were either the first or second percentiles. At the first percentile, 99 years out of 100 would be warmer. Across the northern half of Georgia, the average daily maximum temperatures were around the fifth percentile, depending on location.

The winter as a whole was very wet across the state, especially in December. In January and February, south Georgia was abnormally wet. However, rainfall for January and February across the northern half of the state was near normal to slightly below normal.

Because of the cold temperatures, heating demand for the winter was much higher than normal.

Across north Georgia, heating demand for Athens was 20 percent above normal. Atlanta was 22 percent above normal. Compared to last winter, heating demand in Athens was 32 percent higher and in Atlanta 36 percent higher.

The heating demand is based on heating degree days, which reflects the amount of energy needed to heat a building to a comfortable level considering the daily outside temperature.

In middle Georgia, heating demand for this winter was 32 percent above normal in Columbus, 23 percent above normal in Macon and 19 percent above normal in Augusta. Compared to last winter, heating demand in Columbus was 42 percent higher, 42 percent higher in Macon and 40 percent higher in Augusta.

Active weather is ahead this week and next. Good shot of showers and t-storms with periods of heavy rain. Flooding should not be an issue though.

The man-cation starts on Wednesday. Plenty of pressure on getting the weather just right for a golf trip! Peace.

Monday March 1

It can snow with the temperature above freezing

This is not an easy one, forecasting winter weather in March has a number of challenges. I could study and analyze model guidance all day and all night, but that information still won’t tell the whole story. Yes it will snow on Tuesday, yes there will be snow accumulations, and yes areas will receive a cold rain. The devil is in the details of where.

The snow forecast back in February was textbook. This threat is complex due to the ground and surface temperatures being above freezing. As we know, you can have accumulating snow with the temperature above 32 degrees, it happened last March. As the snow falls into the warmer layer, the snow melts and turns to rain, but that process cools the atmosphere. If the snow falls at a high rate, that melting can really chill the surface to support the snow to fall all the way to the ground. And if it continues to fall at a high rate, the snow can accumulate on itself thereby negating the warmer ground. Next 24 hours will be a chore.

March 1st is the first day of spring for meteorologists; the calendar says the equinox is until March 20th. I am ready to see green leaves and grass. Only 8 days until the man-cation of divots and ball marks. Peace.

Wednesday February 24

Winter weather threats, building UP, father of the Queen

The active weather pattern rolls on as we roll into March next week. A few snowflakes are flying today with cold arctic air again spilling southbound into Georgia tonight. A second system tries to spit out some snow again Saturday morning, mainly to the south, and then an impressive low gives us a snow threat again on Tuesday..fun times indeed. As stated before, in March we will trade winter weather for spring storms and that could happen by mid March.

The epic flood of September 2009 is still causing problems for many Georgia residents. I did a story on Tuesday about some Atlanta residents who had a tough choice to make. Either tear down the flood ravaged home, or raise it up. Yep the city of Atlanta has determined that if your home’s dollar damage is 50% or more of the appraised value, you must tear it down or raise it up. Wow..So many folks are choosing to “jack up” their home to save it.

Yes I am father of the queen. My daughter Lauren was selected Homecoming Queen at Georgia College and State University this past weekend. (GCSU does not have a football team, so homecoming festivities are in the midst of basketball season). She looked lovely and was overwhelmed by the work and support of her sorority sisters at ADPi. Peace.

Friday February 19

A wonderful weekend, spring flood potential and Proud Pop.

Can you feel it? Folks around here are almost giddy with anticipation. Can we really have a weekend with wonderful weather? Will we hit the 60s both weekend days for the first time since Thanksgiving weekend. That is nearly two months. So what are your plans, whatever they are please soak in some sunshine.

Troubling news today from the Southeast River Forecast Center; North Georgia’s spring flood potential is high. Streamflows are at or above normal for most areas, and with the ground saturated, spring rains will rapidly rise those levels. March is statistically our wettest month and with the current El Nino pattern, I am looking for above normal rainfall. In fact even “normal” rainfall will cause some flooding concerns. There are signs that the El Nino pattern will weaken by summer, so little impact on the hurricane season.

My oldest daughter Lauren is a senior at Georgia College and State University in Milledgeville and she has been nominated for Homecoming Queen this weekend. I am a proud Dad, but she gives me many other reasons to be proud. Enjoy the weekend. Peace.

Wednesday February 17

The relentless arctic cold continues:

For this date in Atlanta, the average high temperature is 57. We haven’t even been close all month. Tuesday was our coldest day of the month with a high of 35 and a low of 23. In fact everyday this month has been below the average except for 1. So if you think it’s been frigid you are right. 16 of the past 17 days below the norm, since the beginning of the year, 37 of 48 days have been below the average.

This is the coldest start to the year that I can ever remember and it’s not about to get warm anytime soon. With 57% of the country covered in snow, the air moving north to south has no chance to modify. Look for another big release of arctic air in the next 10 days. The only thing that can soften that cold snap is the angle of the sun and the increased length in daylight hours.

Three weeks now until the man-cation. An annual pilgrimage of 8 guys to Florida for 5 days of golf. We play from womb to tomb (sunup to sunset). No pressure being in charge of the weather. Peace.

Monday February 15

We are not done yet with winter, and longing for Pebble Beach

I wish I could say that the threat of more winter weather will be diminishing the rest of the month and into March..but I can’t. In fact, metro Atlanta may have one more snow event before all is said and done. This El Nino pattern mixing with arctic air has been very problematic.

As I look toward March and April, our current weather scenario would trade the threat of snow to the threat of severe storms, meaning damaging thunderstorms and tornadoes. It is a great time to be a meteorologist, sure beats the drought!

I know this winter has been tough on many businesses in North Georgia, especially my friends in the golf industry. You can usually play golf here year round, but here it is 6 weeks into the new year and I have one round in the books. I am sure I wasn’t alone watching the PGA tourney at Pebble Beach this past weekend in a lustful way. That course may have the best views of any course in the country. Peace.

Friday February 12

Time to be quiet snow lovers!

Snow, Snow, Snow…alright southern snow lovers..this was your day and night. A blanket of snow has covered the Peach State from the mountains to coast. Some areas are reporting up to 5” (now that I said that, folks will bombard me with higher backyard totals). This event should pacify most and there is probably more to come before the month is through.

No big surprises with the snow, amounts were a little higher than forecasted and the coverage was greater. Timing was right on and as I speculated the gulf low was further north than the models suggested. Saturday morning should be real icy.

I am a warm weather person and desperately need a huge shot of sunshine. The “man-cation” is just a month way, can I make it that long? Peace.

Tuesday February 2

El Nino update, need some sun? and the "Rodent" report:

“Make it stop”, “When will it warm up?”, “I need some sun”….I have heard it all in the past week. Georgians tired of this weather pattern..me too. Here’s some bad news, according to NOAA, our El Nino will continue through the spring. This means below normal temps February, March and April, with above normal rainfall. It also suggests an active severe weather season. This possibility is great for the weather business, bad for the psyche and desire to do anything outside.

I did some checking and the numbers speak volumes. The last time we had 5 dry days in row with afternoon temps topping 60 degrees on those days was back in November. (Nov. 12 to Nov 16). Yes its been wet and yes its been cold, looks like that will continue.

Today is Groundhog’s Day..The local rodent, General Lee, says no shadow and an early spring. Yeah right. Spring arrives officially on March 20th. Meteorological spring begins March 1st. Peace.

Wednesday January 27

New info rocks the weather world!

A huge weather record has fallen. I grew up learning that the fastest wind gusts ever recorded on earth was 231 mph on top of Mt. Washington, NH on April 12, 1934. This is one of those statistics that weather geeks just know.

Well this week, the World Meteorological Organization has gone back through data (why now, I don’t know) from 1996 and Cyclone Olivia. (Cyclones are hurricanes in the southern hemisphere in the SW Indian Ocean.) The WMO says a wind gusts of 253 mph has turned up on Barrow Island in Australia during Cyclone Olivia. So time to change the record books. I think there is more to this story, I’ll keep searching. Peace.

Tuesday January 26

The storms keep coming as we turn the corner..

It appears the El Nino storm machine is cranked up and that means changeable weather for metro Atlanta and North Georgia for the foreseeable future. Each area of low pressure becomes enhanced with a fast moving southern branch of the jet stream. Normal rainfall rates of ½ to 1 inch, become 1-3 inches and high winds above the surface translate downward often causing damage. As we enter into February and warmer temperatures, our tornado risk will also increase. Now is the time to plan for severe weather, stay tuned for more reports during Severe Weather Awareness Week, Feb 1-5.

For those of us who love warmer weather, here is a nugget of information that says we are heading in the right direction…the average high and low temperature for Atlanta is now up a degree from the lowest values of winter..Our average high this week is 53 and the average low is 34. By the end of February they are 60 and 40! Peace.

Monday January 18, 2010

A bit time pattern change and thoughts on WeatherFest 2010.

The arctic air has retreated out of the southeast and that means a break from bone-chilling cold. Now we return to the El Nino pattern of an active southern jet stream. The rain machine will get cranked up this week and beyond with a rain threat every three to four days. Don’t put away the winter wear just yet. Another batch of arctic air is bubbling up and will break loose sometime in early February. An example of the cold, Barrow Alaska is -35 this morning..that’s without the wind chill.

Many thanks to all that came out to WeatherFest on Sunday at the Georgia World Congress Center. More than 5000 people attended the event sponsored by the American Meteorological Society. Glenn, Karen, Brad and I appreciate the opportunity to say hello to you the viewers. We never take for granted that you have a choice on whom to watch for your local weather information and we thank you for your loyal support to WSB-TV Channel 2. Check out the link about WeatherFest here on our website. Peace.

Monday January 11, 2010

A frigid start to the new year and looking back at SnowJam 82.

This is the coldest start to a year in 18 years. While our temps have been brutal, we have been colder and colder longer. Check out these numbers: In January 1886 (yep that’s 1886) we had 8 straight days where the temp did not climb above 40 degrees. The mark of 7 days in a row of sub 40 was last set in January of 1978. So far this month our stretch was only 5 days (Jan 2nd to Jan 6th).

Do you remember SnowJam 82 here in Atlanta. It had been cold for days and then a bit of warm up on January 11, 1982..It warmed so much that the precipitation was rain. But then arctic air plunged south and the rain froze turning the roads to ice. The rain then changed to snow, so snow fell on the ice and started piling up. After the precip, the temps fell into the teens and 20s and for days, North Georgia was a frozen mess. It was a great time to be a college student at UGA!

Thursday December 31

What a year it has been, bring on 2010.

Wrapping up quite a year weather-wise. The drought ended and boy did it, with flooding rains this Fall and a rainfall total for the year at 69.43” This is our second wettest year on record, trailing 71.18” in 1948. That is something since records began back in 1878. The big events of 09, how about the snow on March 1st, tornadoes and wind damage in April, the big flood in September, tropical storm Ida in November and a cold December.

We know that 2010 will start with an active pattern, so expect plenty of weather highlights soon. Happy New Year and may we all prosper in 2010. Peace.

Sunday December 20th

Winter arrives, 3rd wettest year and Santa Tracking!!.

Okay so winter officially starts Monday at 12:47pm..Well as we know its been here and plans to stick around for a while. With rain on Friday, our yearly total is now 66.87” and #3 on the all time list. In second place at 67.71” in 1929 (we are sure to pass that later this week) and holding the top spot for all time wettest year in Atlanta (since records have been kept, 1878) is 71.18” in 1948.

The Christmas season means I will pulling double duty again, so listen on AM 750 WSB in the morning, and then watch on Channel 2 Action News at 5p/6p/11p.

Santa Tracker2 is gearing up for its 22nd run on Christmas Eve. Be sure to tune in with the kids, grandkids, nieces and nephews. It will put a smile on your face and I promise I’ll have them in bed by 9:30pm. Not only will we have a cell phone call from Santa while in flight, but I expect to receive some very important text messages. As it stands now, I will be tracking rain and Santa on Thursday..busy times ahead. Peace.

Monday December 7

In the Top Ten, and climbing and other thoughts.

We are now in the top ten!! Atlanta has been keeping weather records since 1878. Right now, we have officially collected 62.80” in the rain gauge for the calendar year of 2009. With no additional rainfall, this would be the 9th wettest year on record. But you know that more rain is headed this way, some of it heavy, so our total will grow. Only 2.25” more puts us at #5. The wettest year was in 1948 at 71.18”. Stay tuned.

Once again had a big time as the MC of the Lilburn Christmas Parade on Saturday. This is a holiday highlight with a wonderful small town feel. The weather was cold, but dry and that was a key for all of those who participated.

The Copenhagen Climate Summit begins this week as the world leaders talk “climate change”. I find it very interesting that just today the EPA has decided that greenhouse gases pose a health risk and must be regulated. Hmmmm, timing is everything. Of course this will get media play, unlike the global warming email revelation of a few weeks back. It’s really simple folks, our weather and climate is dictated by that huge star 93 million miles away. Enough said.

Tuesday November 24

Over-flowing rain bucket and a little help on Thanksgiving dinner.

While it looks like the rest of Thanksgiving week and the weekend will be dry, more rain is on the way next week. Right now we have exceeded our yearly average here in Atlanta, so I got to wondering how this year stacks up in the all-time wettest years.

Tish Atwell at the National Weather Service office in Peachtree City dug around and sent me these numbers: Based upon our current rainfall total for the year (60.23”), if we receive the "normal" rainfall through the end of the year we would end up with 65.06". So far our wettest 10 years are: (yearly average is 50.20”)

71.18" 1948 67.71" 1929 66.15" 1936 66.00" 1975 65.04" 1920 64.98" 1888 64.03" 1912 63.31" 1989 62.70" 1880 61.74" 1881

Based upon this list, with normal rainfall through the end of the year we would end up 5th overall. If we receive more than 10.95" (let’s hope not) 2009 will be the wettest year ever in Atlanta.

I spent this morning with other members of the Atlanta’s media, including our own Jovita Moore, preparing food for the Atlanta community food bank. This is an annual event at the Renaissance Hotel in Cobb County hosted by John Smoltz. While our involvement was brief, the real praise goes to the many volunteers of the Food Bank that provide hungry people a nice meal this Thanksgiving. As I stood snapping beans and preparing stuffing, I am reminded how blessed I am and how I should do more for folks that need a hand..not a handout, but a gentle, working hand. Peace.

Wednesday November 18

A stronger El Nino, active pre-winter weather and the Tree Lighting

As stated previously in this blog, on this website and on the air, the rest of this year and the winter of 2010 will be a very active one weather wise here in North Georgia. New information has the El Nino pattern strengthening into February and that means get ready for some nasty winter weather.

My early look at Thanksgiving week is for most of the holiday weekend to be dry and cool, bookend by stormy weather. One storm system blows through on Tuesday and another set to arrive late Sunday. But as you know things change, so check back often for updates.

This is also an early plug for an annual holiday tradition, The Macy’s Great Tree Lighting. Pack up the family on Thanksgiving night and head to Lenox Square at 7pm for the show. Join Monica Pearson and me, along with Cadillac Jack from Kicks 101.5, as we host quite a show culminating with the lighting of the Great Tree atop Macy’s. It is an Atlanta tradition in its 62nd year. Peace.

Wednesday November 11

Some Flooding, not the Great Flood:

The remnants of Tropical Storm Ida are moving away from North Georgia and that will give us a chance to dry out…again. This rain event illustrates how unbelievable the flood of September was and how future flooding will pale in comparison.

Other than being a late season storm, Ida was a fairly typical tropical storm and it brought our area 3-5 inches of rain, with isolated higher amounts. Flooding was minor in most areas, with some major rivers experiencing moderate flooding, but nothing catastrophic.

Back in September rainfall totals for a 24 hour period were 10-15 inches with some higher amounts. As has been stated, this was an “epic” event and the odds of it happening again, astronomical.

North Georgia will have more flooding, but this week is an example of the results we can expect, not what happened in September. Today is Veteran’s Day. Tell someone who served or is serving that you appreciate their sacrifice. I know I do..Peace.

Tuesday November 3

2009 Tropical Scorecard:

Officially the tropical season for the Atlantic Basin (including the Gulf of Mexico) ends on November 30th. However, it appears that weather patterns due to a strengthening El Nino, we can put a lid on a very quiet season. There is always the possibility of a storm spinning up in the southern Gulf or Caribbean Sea in November, but it is highly unlikely of any storm affecting the U.S.

By the numbers: 9 named storms, two hurricanes, but both of those hurricanes (Bill and Fred) were major hurricanes (Cat 3+). This is the lowest total since 1997 when there were only 7 named storms. The last time the basin had only hurricanes was back in 1982. Only one storm hit the U.S. coastline, tropical storm Claudette came ashore at Fort Walton Beach, FL in August causing no damage.

The 2009 predictions fell short;

2009 National Hurricane Center Prediction Colorado State Univ. Prediction: Named Storms: 9 9-14 12 Hurricanes: 2 4-7 6 Major Hurricanes: 2 1-3 2

I will have a final update at the end of the month. Peace.

Monday November 2

A break from the rain and a word on the Dawgs.

Finally a time to catch our breath! We just wrapped up the second wettest October on record and many are still reeling from the effects of the great flood of September. It appears the next week will be very quiet weather-wise as the active branch of the southern jet stream has phased with the northern branch cutting off the wet flow from the Pacific.

Early indications are the first week of November will be more like the weather we are supposed to get in October, mild and dry. On average, Atlanta’s first freeze should fall into this week, and although it will be cool at night, freezing temps will not be found. You have to go all the way back to August before we find a week of dry weather, so enjoy the next 7 days. As stated before, with the El Nino pattern in place more wet weather is ahead.

As a member of Bulldog Nation, please accept my apology for our performance on Saturday against the Florida Gators. And please Coach Richt, stop changing the colors of our pants and helmets. I am old school and want to see the red hats and silver britches. Peace.

Monday October 26

A "normal" rain will produce minor flooding..get used to it.

Once again metro Atlanta finds itself under a flood watch on Tuesday into Wednesday morning. I am afraid this is now the “new normal”. Our clay soil holds water for a long time, so additional rainfall creates problems with rapid run off. This time of year the evaporation rate decreases and the amount of ground water needed for plants and trees also decreases, so the soil remains saturated longer.

As we enter the winter months, I am sure we will see plenty of flood watches. Right now the guidance for a watch for North Georgia is 2-3 inches of rain over a 6 hour period. No doubt we will see many rain events that fall under this criteria. I don’t expect “epic” floods, but nuisance flooding will be commonplace.

Remember this Saturday to turn your clocks back one hour as we return to standard time at 2am on Sunday. Hey you gain an hours sleep, so you will be well rested for church on Sunday..Peace.

Wednesday October 21

It's getting cooler and darker day by day.

If you have noticed its getting cooler and darker earlier day by day, you are very perceptive. As we lumber toward the winter solstice (Dec. 21st) the hours of daylight diminish and the average temperatures are retreating. You will especially feel it over the next 10 days.

By November 1st, we return to Eastern Standard Time (fall-back one hour) and that means the sun will set on that day at 5:45pm. Ouch! Also, by the end of the month the average high and low temperature will drop a few degrees to 68 for high and 48 for low. That’s getting chilly.

With the wet cool weather, the fall colors are still very muted and holding a green tint much longer than the previous Octobers. Check out our leaf watching page here on the website for places to go this weekend. Peace.

Monday October 19

Cold snap is the just the beginning, El Nino rules!

I am afraid our early October chill is just a sneak preview of wild changeable weather ahead this Fall and Winter for metro Atlanta and North Georgia. We are very much in an El Nino pattern and that spells drastic weather events for the next several months.

Recently I attended a local AMS (American Meteorological Society) meeting where Dr. Hyemi Kim and Dr. Peter Webster of Georgia Tech, presented their research on the effects of a Central Pacific El Nino vs. an Eastern Pacific El Nino on the tropical season. But with the tropical season almost behind us, it ends on November 30th, I wanted to know what type of winter season we will have with a Central Pacific El Nino in place. I will be working on that research in the coming days.

PHOTOS: El Nino and Winter David Chandley Talks About The Effect El Nino Will Have On Our Weather

Here is what I do know, when there is an El Nino in place, these things happen when it comes to North Georgia’s weather; 1) In late fall, we have an outbreak of severe weather, including tornadoes. 2) We have below normal winter temperatures for the season, especially the high temperature. We may not get record cold with bone chilling readings in the single digits, but the clouds and rain keep the highs from reaching their normal levels and that in turn makes it colder than the average. 3) Our ice storm risk goes up in January and February; the combination of abundant low level moisture and shallow cold air is a perfect recipe for a southern ice storm. 4) As El Nino continues into the spring, the threat of damaging spring storms also increases.

Stay tuned for some wild weather. Peace.

Thursday October 15

Lake Lanier is FULL, now what??

So Georgia’s largest lake is above full pool, what’s next for Lake Lanier? The water wars between Georgia/Alabama/Florida will continue and the 3 year deadline imposed by a Federal judge to work it all out will quickly arrive. I have done many stories at the Lake during the drought and it sure was wonderful to see all those barren spots covered by the blue water.

Over the next several months, Lanier will perform its original purpose, flood control. The Army Corps of Engineers will hold water in the lake to protect the interests of the downstream Chattahoochee. While the Lake will remain above full pool, a level of 1073’ poses few problems for those that use the lake. When the level tops 1074’, some boat ramps will close and private docks would be affected. Official flood stage at Lanier is 1085’ so there is plenty of room for additional water. Keep in mind, it takes much more water to make the level rise when its full, compared to when the level is very low.

Bottom line is Lanier’s high level is not nearly the issue that a low level is, now its up to water managers, county and state officials to work out a plan, we will keep you updated. Peace.

Friday October 2

A soaking sun, what I know, and what I learned.

How about this…a weekend with no rain!!!!! It has been month since the radar has been quiet on Saturday and Sunday.

Here is what I am looking forward to and working on..leaf viewing in the North Georgia mountains. The early forecast is for the color to be muted due to the rain and cooler late summer/early fall temps. The flip side is that the color show will last longer than the past few seasons. Right now a little color showing up at Black Rock Mountain State Park in Rabun county. Check our website for future updates and I will try to post some pictures.

Here is what I have learned about the Flood of 2009. Flash flooding can happen anywhere. Elevation and soil composite can be overwhelmed by torrential rain over time. There are many areas you can expect devastating floods, but all areas should be under a “500” year flood plain. I learned that the river and stream gages work (gage is how the USGS spell it) and the information they transmit probably saved many lives. I learned that disasters bring people together and often bring out our best and that some heroes wear badges, others wear hats, but most are just ordinary people who do extra-ordinary things. Peace.

Monday September 21

One for the record books, Let's call it Nemo!

A day I will not soon forget. I have an official NWS rain gauge and a member of CoCoRaHs (http://www.cocorahs.org/state.aspx?state=ga) and this morning I had collected in 24 hours 9.60” of rain. I have never seen that much rain before and I have covered hurricanes and tropical storms. There are plenty of areas around metro Atlanta where 10-12 inches is not uncommon.

How bout this, officially at ATL, we picked up 2.13” today and that brings us surplus for the month of nearly 5” and a surplus for the year of nearly 7”. Lake Lanier rose more than 2 feet today and is at its highest level since the summer of 2007. More runoff is expected over the next several days, so the level will continue to rise.

A worthy comment from a viewer about this tropical nightmare of rain that isn’t a named storm. Chris Corriere writes: “Nemo in greek translates as 'no body' or 'no name'. Odysseus tells the cyclops Polyphemus that his name is Nemo after he blinds him with a flaming timber. Polyphemus proceeds to scream for help that 'no body' is in my cave and has blinded me, so no one comes to help him catch 'no body' because they think he's just acting nuts. I think Nemo sounds better than 'the storm with no name'.”

Can’t wait to dry out, ditto for my basement. Peace

Monday September 7

Summer fades, and what has me bummed:

The unofficial end of summer today and it looks like it won’t be coming back. Sure we will have temps in the 80s to low 90s, but no more searing summer heat. The autumnal equinox is set for September 22nd.

This is the peak week in hurricane season and it looks very quiet. As discussed earlier, El Nino is doing a number on limiting tropical storm development. There is a disturbance way out in the Atlantic, but no real threat right now. That low off the North Carolina coast will spin up healthy rainfall totals, but is not tropical in nature.

Two things I’m bummed about on this Monday, The Dawgs game out in Oklahoma and the uproar over the President’s address to school children. First the Dawgs: what happened with the play calling after the first drive? And what’s the deal with our kick coverage and return teams? I found myself yelling at the tv. Now to the President, these comments are not to be political, but just asking for a little common sense. I am all for the leader of the free world talking to the school kids about staying in school, being a good citizen, doing your best and respecting authority. I find it narrow minded that some believe he will “indoctrinate” our kids with talk of health care reform. It’s not like he’s speaking to them everyday and if his talk crosses the line, chances are high he wouldn’t be able to do it again. Just relax folks and let’s see what he has to say. Peace

Monday August 31

Bye bye summertime, time for some football.

It’s time to turn the corner and turn the page. The season of autumn begins on September 22nd, but in my business it begins on September 1st. What a summer its been, hot and dry in June, and then cool and wet for August. For the first time in a while, we actually have a rainfall surplus this late into the year!!

No great change in our weather pattern for the first part of September. Of course we will watch the tropics as the peak of hurricane season is the 10th.

College football cranks up this week and I will have your gameday forecasts for both the Dawgs and Jackets each week right here on the website. Did you catch a high school game this past weekend? I did and it sure is plenty of fun. Peace.

Friday August 21

Tropical air changes and supporting the community.

After a week of tropical air hanging around North Georgia, a strong cold front will push it all away by Saturday. Get ready for some wonderful weather for late August as the humidity level will drop big time. In fact, low temps by Sunday morning will be In the low to mid 60s in town with a few 50s in the suburbs. It looks dry from Sunday into the new week.

Be sure to check out the video of the waves along the east coast this weekend. Hurricane Bill is a huge storm in size and is whipping up angry Atlantic Ocean. By Sunday, waves could be well over 20 feet in New England. I am sure beach erosion from Long Island northward will be extensive. Just goes to show how a tropical system affects an area without a direct hit.

Tis the season of high school sports, football, softball, volleyball and cross country are in season. For those of us with kids participating, its great entertainment. I encourage you to support your local teams. Check out a game and then let me know if you didn’t have a wonderful experience. Peace.

Wednesday August 19

A new El Nino and time flies.

There will be plenty of tropical moisture hanging around the southeast the next several days. The remnants of both Claudette and Ana will drive up our rain chance through Friday. As seen on this web page, Hurricane Bill is a large and powerful hurricane, but should have little impact on the U.S. other than rough surf along the Atlantic coast.

I had an interesting conversation on Tuesday with Dr. Peter Webster at Georgia Tech. He, along with two other colleagues, has published a paper that has a fascinating conclusion; all El Nino’s are no the same. His theory is that if the warming episode occurs in the central Pacific rather than the eastern Pacific, the effect of El Nino on the Atlantic tropical season is very different. Instead of El Nino suppressing tropical development, a central Pacific El Nino episode will actually increase the number of storms and the likelihood of a storm making landfall is also greater..Awesome stuff. Here is the link to more info: http://www.gatech.edu/newsroom/release.html?id=3079

I sent this message to my college daughter this week: “Enjoy your last first day of school.” She is senior and that is not possible. Why does life go by so quick? As I get older, I try to make everyday count, you should too. Peace.

Wednesday August 12

Numbers tell a story and I am a "key" holder.

Studying meteorology and climatology, I have always been fascinated with numbers and statistics. (I guess that is why I love baseball where there is a number and stat for everything). Here are your numbers for the day;

For Atlanta, we have a rainfall deficit for the past 30 days of 1.70” which means we have received 63% of average rainfall. For 3 months is a deficit of 1.93” or 85%. But for the past 6 months we have a surplus of 2.96” or 111% of average rainfall.

In August, 10 of the first 11 days, the high temperature has been above the 30 year average of 89. It looks like that trend will end this week with clouds keeping the highs in the mid to upper 80s.

The level at Lake Lanier is around 1065’, which is 6 feet below full pool, but only 3 feet below average and the level has not been this high in August since August of 2005.

I was honored this past Monday night to receive the “key to the city” from the Lilburn City Council. I appreciate the gesture from Mayor Diana Preston, but it is me who is blessed to live in such a wonderful community. The schools, my church, and my neighbors and friends are the best. Peace.

Monday August 5

Dog days, fish kill at Piedmont park, and sweet 16.

Hot and sticky for the first week of school, the only cooling off will come from late day and early evening t-storms by mid week and some of those could be locally heavy. These are the dog days, but September is right around the corner.

I am watching a tropical wave off the African coast that could develop into our first tropical depression of the year. That is still days away from a possible tropical storm. This is the latest we have been since 1992 without a named storm; of course 1992 brought us Andrew. On the other side of the globe, Tropical Storm Felicia is heading toward the Hawaiian Islands in the next 24 hours with heavy rain and wind. Surprisingly, the islands have only been hit by 9 tropical systems since 1950.

Spent this morning at Piedmont Park with the dead fish on Lake Clara Meer. My story will air at 5pm, but here is the deal. That lake in the park is really a retention pond and is not fed by a spring or fresh running creek. The Piedmont Park Conservancy Group stocks the lake with bass, bream, and catfish. With the hot and dry weather lately (no rain runoff) an algae forms and then dies and depletes the lake of oxygen, so the fish die. According the Georgia Department of Natural Resources, this sort of thing happens in the southeast. The folks at the park want us to know it was not pollution, or some chemical spill that killed the fish, just a natural occurrence. I’ll have more at 5pm.

Back to school today and what a day at the Chandley house, my youngest daughter Leah turns 16, now that’s a sweet sixteen party..roaming the halls of high school. I loved the first day of school; in fact I loved school, except for some of the “busy” work. Peace.

Wednesday August 5

The heat bubble, hurricane update and birthdays

It appears that some searing summer heat is poised to roll into North Georgia later this week and beyond. A huge dome of high pressure will move from west to east and the models suggest it will sit over our region for several days. Under the dome will be sinking air, that air will heat as it compresses and that spells days in the 90s and lows only in the 70s. The sinking air will also suppress any t-storm development to only a few rogue storms. This heat will be like the days we experienced in late June. In fact in June, we saw our highest temp of the year (96 on June 27th) and we recorded 17 days of 90 plus, compared to only 8 days in July. Thank goodness the soil moisture has been replenished, because with a dry ground, an air mass like the one heading our way could produce temps above 100.

The men from Colorado State University, Dr. Phil Klotzback and Dr. William Gray (I have always been amazed that some of the best hurricane forecasts and analysis comes from Colorado, but these guys for many years have been good) have downgraded their tropical prediction to 10 named storms, 4 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. With a strengthening El Nino, I agree with their assessment for the 2009 season. But I still remind you that 1992 was a down year and yet Andrew hammered south Florida and Louisiana.

Today is my lovely wife’s birthday. It is a tradition in the Chandley house that on your birthday you can have anything to eat all day..you pick it and we eat it. When my youngest daughter turned 8 she wanted ice cream for breakfast, so she did and now 8 years later she still remembers that day. I wonder what my wife will choose for dinner tonight? Peace.

Thursday July 30

A weird summer weather pattern and now it's back to school?

To answer your many questions, yes this has been a weird summer here in Georgia and across the nation. That’s one of the reasons (there are many) I love weather so much..the unpredictability of it all. We are seeing a pattern over the US that has a huge heat bubble in the Pacific Northwest and a long wave trough dominating the eastern half of the country. That is why they are having record breaking heat in Seattle and Portland, Seattle hit 103 on Wednesday, their hottest temperature ever recorded. The trough is keeping it cooler in the upper Midwest where some spots in Wisconsin have held in the low 80s all summer. Here in the southeast it’s been real muggy this week and that has kept the temperature down. In July, Atlanta has only seen 8 days with a temperature of 90 or above. The rain pattern has been erratic with some spots seeing several inches and others just a drop. Sure beats the drought of the past two years. No real change in this pattern into the first week of August.

I see that kids are back in school in Walton county…in July..really? Next week other systems crank it up, not to mention the start of fall sports and activities. Yes I remember Labor Day marking the beginning of school, guess I’m just an old-timer now. Peace.

Tuesday July 28

A wetter pattern, quiet in the tropics, and a proud father.

A changing weather pattern will increase our risk of showers and t-storms this week and into the weekend. Finally the Bermuda High will start doing its thing and pump rich tropical moisture into our state and with a few disturbances from the west roll our way, rain is certain to fall. Computer models are projecting 3-4 inches of rain over the next 5days for NW Georgia. I don’t think everyone will see that much, but isolated heavy amounts are possible.

It appears that we will have an “O-fer” for the first two months of hurricane season. While sea surface temperatures are plenty warm, upper level wind patterns are shearing the hope of any tropical development. Only three times in the past 20 years has this occurred. In 2004 and 2000, the first storms were not until August and then it got real busy with 15 and 14 storms respectively. Back in 1992 the first storm of the season didn’t occur until mid August, but it was a memorable one…Andrew. I still like the forecast of 11 named storms with 7 hurricanes, but if the El Nino continues to strengthen, those numbers will trend downward.

It has been a wonderful summer for me personally as my oldest daughter Lauren, a senior at Georgia College, has been interning here at WSB-TV. Her last day is tomorrow. What a great thrill to come to work each day with her. She is majoring in communications with an interest in public relations and event planning. When I started work here at WSB-TV she was 7 months old, and now she is a beautiful young woman with a bright future. I am blessed. Peace.

Wednesday July 1

Heat, Hurricanes, and Emmy

Yes it’s been dry and it’s been hot, 16 straight days of 90 degrees or better for Atlanta. I am looking for some changes by the weekend as the humidity will come back and so will the risk for showers and t-storms.

We are now one month into the tropical season and so far it’s been really quiet. In the past 15 years, we have no named storms in the month of June only 4 times. But in those four seasons, the average number of storms was 13, which is above average. The forecast for 2009 calls for 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2-3 major storms. Remember it only takes one land falling storm to skew the perception. 1992 was a quiet year for storms until August when Hurricane Andrew lashed Florida and Louisiana.

There are signs of weak El Nino developing (warmer sea surface temps in the Pacific) and history tell us that tends to suppress tropical activity in the Atlantic and Gulf basins. Stay tuned.

On a personal note, something really cool happened to me at the Southeast Regional Emmy Awards on Saturday night. I was presented with an Emmy for Weather anchor, and the “Emmy girl” giving me my statue was my oldest daughter Lauren. A proud Dad moment. Peace.

Monday June 15th

The drought, t-storms, and Taylor Swift.

Hey Weather fans, sorry it’s been a while since my last post. I had some vacation time and then fought a cold for a week, then filled in for both Glenn and Karen. You know summertime, our schedules are all over the place.

Since we last met, plenty has happened. The drought is officially over! You can now wash your car and water the lawn. There are some restrictions here in the metro area, so just look at our website to find our when you can water..but at least you can.

This is a difficult time of year for forecasting. We know there will be t-storms, placement and timing are tough. Often we get these mesoscale convective complexes (MCC’s) that roll in from the NW. They can occur late in the day and in the evening, some even last into the morning. These storms are capable of damaging winds, frequent lightning and hail. We do our best to let you know when they are coming our way, so stay tuned.

I took my daughters over the weekend to the Taylor Swift/Keith Urban concert at Philips arena. What a role model for young ladies, Taylor Swift is the real deal, we need more people like her in the public eye. Memories were made. Peace.

Wednesday May 20

Talking summer days and the hurricane season.

It certainly has not felt like a normal May for North Georgia. Well get used to it. This may be an odd summer weatherwise. After a couple of years of the drought and searing summer heat, the summer of 2009 will be mild and at times damp.

The latest data shows that La Nina (the cooler sea surface temps in the Pacific) is gone and we have entered a neutral phase in the El Nino/Southern Oscillation. That means no extremes in our global weather patterns. With our abundant soil moisture and the heating of summer days, expect the random late day and early t-storm machine to get cranked up by June and July. The increase in boundary layer moisture will keep the afternoon temps from extremes, so I expect no 100 degree days this year.

Hurricane season starts on June 1. The National Hurricane Center will make their seasonal prediction on Thursday. On average over the past 50 years, we have seen 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes (cat 3 or higher). During a neutral ENSO summer, those average numbers do not deviate that much. Of course one land falling major hurricane is all it takes (see Andrew 1992) and that can happen in both busy and slow years. Peace.

Thursday May 14

Finally, the drought is OVER!.

As I track showers and t-storms across the southeast, I found this little nugget on the computer. For the first time in more than 2 years, the state of Georgia is drought free!! Check it out here for yourself: http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/DM_state.htm?GA,SE This was a long time coming and I realize that Lake Lanier is still not full (Less than 6 feet below summer pool) but that is another matter. Now folks are asking, “when is it going to be sunny and dry?” Speaking of which, this weekend really looks unsettled. There will be some dry hours, but the shower and t-storm machine will be cranked up. I also see cooler air the first of next week.

My college daughter is home for the summer, life is good. It will be even better on the beach in about week. Peace.

Tuesday May 12

Cooler, drier and final exams.

This is a warm weather break for the month of May. Temps over the next two days will be a few degrees below the average, both during day and at night. Typically cooler air means drier air and that is why we have turned off the t-storm machine. As you know we are doing very well in the rainfall total department, so this respite from rain is welcomed. It looks like humidity will creep back into metro Atlanta later this week and another round of rain and t-storms will roll over us by the weekend. This upper air pattern is very different from what we saw the last two years when the drought had us.

I hear my daughters bemoan that its final exam time and how tough and stressful it is. I am sure I felt the same way many years ago, but in retrospect, I would trade being an adult for another year of final exams in a blink. Scoring well on exams is all about preparation, the same holds true for everyday life, except in life, you have more than one course and there are some things you just can’t prepare for. Peace.

Wednesday May 6

Severe Storms, the drought and Mom.

Quite the active weather pattern today and tonight for North Georgia. Numerous watches, warnings and advisories and they will be changing frequently. The greatest threat of severe weather (damaging winds, hail, lightning and flooding rains) will be this afternoon and early evening. Severe weather center 2 will be hopping and we will be on the air and on the web with updates. Giving people valuable information is the reason I got into this profession, so today is a great day to be a meteorologist!

Great news about the 2 year old drought….its is over..gone, see you later. Our state climatologist, David Stookesbury, says the soil moisture, ground water, and stream flows are all at or above normal for the state. No word yet from the state as far as the easing of water restrictions is concerned. How about this for Lake Lanier, the lake level continues to rise. Today its at 1064.43 feet above sea level. Full summer pool is 1071’. This is the highest Lanier has been since July 24, 2007. Awesome. With more rain on the way today, tonight and into the weekend, the level will surely rise for days to come.

Please don’t forget Sunday is Mother’s Day. I think Mom’s should get more than one day, but that’s me. I have been blessed to have a wonderful Mom to me and I’m married to a wonderful Mom to my daughters. Peace.

Friday May 1

Not a clear cut weekend weatherwise.

We are in a frustrating weather pattern this first week of May. Frustrating in the sense that forecasting the when and where of showers and t-showers is a challenge. Weather disturbances will move from the NW to the SE in the mid south area and that puts Metro Atlanta on the fringe to see rain and t-showers. There will be plenty of dry hours for your outdoor plans, but keep in mind a shower or t-storm may develop at any time. It will be best to check back this weekend for Brad Nitz’s updates both on the air and on our website. Enjoy the first weekend of May! Peace.

Monday April 27

Staying warm and tornado siren info.

Our warm spring weather will continue this week with an increase in humidity. Rain chances will rise with a cold front by the weekend. I really enjoy this time of year with comfortable temps and the “greening” of the grass and trees.

Last week I did a report on the tornado sirens in Cobb county. As you recall, the sirens went off when there was NOT a tornado warning for the area. Why did this happen? It seems that Cobb’s criteria is the following: The sirens will be blare when Cobb county is under a tornado warning, or a severe t-storm warning during a tornado watch, or a funnel cloud is spotted by law enforcement. That was the case last week. While tornado sirens have value, do not use them as your only source of weather warnings. Keep in mind not all communities have the sirens and they are really for people to hear while outside. They are not meant to warn people while inside their homes. Your best source of weather warning comes from a weather radio, you can find more info about where to get one here on this web page. Peace.

Thursday April 23

Summer preview this weekend.

The major pattern change is underway and that means a nice warm-up for North Georgia. The warmest air of the year is headed this way as we will see high temps into the 80s. With the warm front moving in, some spots might see a pop up t-storm later today and tonight. Hail and damaging winds are the greatest threats, but most of the area will remain rain free. It has been since last October when we last saw temps in the 80s, so its been awhile. The rain chance goes way down over the next five days as we see warm and stable air over North Georgia.

Enjoy the early taste of summer. Peace.

Thursday April 16

Braves baseball and the weather.

Earlier today, Karen Minton, Brad Nitz and I took part in the Braves Weather Day down at Turner Field. We had the pleasure to speak to more than 1500 school kids about weather before the Braves/Marlins game. We talked of weather safety, weather terms and a look behind the scenes at Severe Weather Center 2. Many thanks to our promotions department and the Braves for coordinating such a large event. Also a huge shout out to Braves rightfielder Jeff Francoeur for lending me a hand, Jeff comes from a family of educators, so he appreciates the opportunity to reach out to students. Check out the slideshow here on our web page.

I am still looking for more of warm-up into the weekend and then a good chance for rain and t-showers on Sunday afternoon and evening. The rain risk rolls into Monday as well. No doubt Saturday is the pick of the litter for the weekend. Peace.

Wednesday April 15

Are you ready? and tea parties.

Are you ready? Is your family ready to battle severe storms? We will air a special on Channel 2 tonight called “Are you ready?” that deals with this subject. Glenn, Karen, Brad and I will tell you how to protect your family during severe weather and we will give you a behind the scenes look at Severe Weather Center 2. Join us tonight at 8pm.

Clear and cool for awhile as a broad area of high pressure sits over the southeast. Even with sunshine highs the next several days will struggle to get out of the 60s. The average high for Atlanta this week is 73. It looks like another shot of showers and t-storms by Sunday.

It is reassuring to see so many people at the Tea parties today and tonight. Government spending is way out of control. It is time to send a huge message to those that spend our money! Peace.

Tuesday April 14

What's the deal with damaging wind on Monday?

Folks in North Georgia will be busy for days repairing the damage from the wind on Monday. So why did so many trees fall? We didn’t have many severe storms, but fallen trees were widespread. It was an unusual event called a “wake low”. The rain cooled air behind the front allowed the air to sink. The sinking air warms and then rises creating waves in the atmosphere. Near the sinking air an area of high pressure forms and near the rising air an area of low pressure forms. The pressure gradient between the high and the low produces wind. This event covers a large area unlike a single spot under a t-storm, and the winds are often sustained above 40 mph with gusts higher. I also suspect that the wind direction aided in the amount of fallen trees. Our prevailing wind in Georgia is from the west or northwest. Monday’s wind was from the southeast, the weaken trees were not “used” to that direction being that strong. No doubt this was a rare event and near impossible to forecast.

Thursday April 2

Severe weather threat tonight, then off for Spring Break.

A potent spring storm is moving through the southeast and it will be a stormy afternoon and evening for many. Here in North Georgia we will see a round of rain with embedded t-storms, first on the southside. We do have a threat for severe storms with hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes likely. At Noon, the air over Mississippi and Alabama is much more unstable than the air over Georgia. The rain of earlier today has calmed the atmosphere quite a bit. Please check in later today and tonight to see how things are developing. A drier day is ahead for Friday and Saturday and that one last cold snap is in the outlook for early next week.

I will be blog-less for the next week as its off to Spring Break with my family. Glenn and Brad will man the weather fort and I will be back on Monday April 13th. I hope you get a chance to see family and friends over Easter weekend, safe travels. Peace.

Wednesday April 1

No joke-more rain on the way

I am looking at more rain heading toward North Georgia tonight and into your Thursday. The first wave should be here (southside first) after midnight and into Thursday morning. This will be mainly rain with a few embedded t-showers. Rain totals will exceed one inch in many areas. Thursday evening, I will be tracking a squall line out ahead of the cold front. This line has the potential for severe storms and we will know more as they develop tomorrow afternoon in Alabama. The parameters are there in Alabama for an outbreak of severe weather. Outdoor activities look fine for Friday and Saturday, with scattered showers and t-storms for Sunday. No doubt we are in an active pattern for the next two weeks.

What is the deal with I-85 south of town? I really feel for you folks in South Fulton, Fayette, and Coweta counties that have to travel that route each day. Did you see that big truck crash on Tuesday that shut down the road near Northgate High School? I just drove that way on Monday and came into the newsroom and said what a dangerous stretch of highway that is. I understand the need for road construction and road expansion, but those narrow two lanes are scary. If you are heading that way soon, please be careful. Peace.

Tuesday March 31

When can we water?

As I wrote yesterday, the drought is over for much of North Georgia. With that proclamation, the next question is…when can start watering our lawns? The short answer is not yet, the long answer is more confusing. The way I understand it, the Georgia Environmental Protection Division (EPD) brought forth the watering ban in the Fall of 2007 as we entered a level 4 drought. Even though we are no longer in a level four, the ban remains until we see 4 consecutive months of above normal rainfall. This March would be month number one. With that being said, each county or water department can petition the EPD to relax the ban and issue water restrictions, several North Georgia counties have done that and were granted the release of the ban. I am sure that more counties will follow suit, so to answer the question, “can I water?” it is best to check with your local water department. Here is something interesting I found out today, While we are all elated on the rise of Lake Lanier to a level of 1060’, it was that level back in September of 2007 that prompted the EPD to issue the watering ban..wow.

Tomorrow is April Fools Day, watch out, you were warned. Peace.

Monday March 30

Declaring the drought over!!!!!!!

With the soaking rains of last week and more rain on the way this week and into the first part of April, the drought is over for North Georgia. Yes, Lake Lanier continues to be nearly 10 feet below full summer pool, but there are other isssues at work, not the lack of rainfall. No word yet on what the lack of a drought label will mean for outdoor water restrictions, but it sure will be nice to see the spring colors in full form. Lake Allatoona is now above full pool, in fact it’s the highest its been since August of 2005. Other area lakes are fairing well too. I spent the early part of the day down in Coweta County shooting an updated story on the areas hit by the Feburary tornado. The damage along the Coweta/Meriwether line was amazing and because of ample warning, many residents took cover and were spared of injury. Look for these stories in April. Peace.

Friday March 27

Severe storms on Saturday, time to pay attention.

After this round of rain and storms, I think we will able to say “what drought”. North Georgia will see 2-4 inches through Saturday and the lake levels will rise for days. The big threat for severe weather is still tomorrow. Please stay weather aware through tv and our website. These storms will be capable of tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm winds of 70 mph plus. The greatest risk will be between 10am and 4pm. Right now would be a good time to review your families tornado safety plan. Check back for plenty of updates. Peace.

Thursday March 26

Severe weather threat looms.

The rain is not done, but we will get a break this afternoon. Severe storms will threaten North Georgia on Friday and again on Saturday. Several disturbances will roll our way with main event happening on Saturday. Damaging thunderstorms with possible tornadoes will be common into Saturday afternoon. We will have you covered here in Severe Weather Center 2. Timing and location are difficult to predict this far out, but the scenario is not a calm one for this area. No flooding problems yet, but any additional rainfall, especially in NW Georgia, will fall on saturated soil. That means run off will be great. It is time to make sure that your family has a severe weather radio to alert you during the night. More details can be found on this website. Peace

Wednesday March 25

Busy day in the weather center and its only getting started.

Sorry for the late blog, been to Lake Allatoona for a story and then tracking the rain this afternoon. Join me tomorrow morning with Karen Minton for Action News this Morning at 5am. We will have the latest on the rain and possible storms. Also, I will have a new look at the severe weather threat this Saturday. Thanks for checking in. Peace.

Tuesday March 24

Flooding potential is high.

A real active weather pattern is about to begin for North Georgia from tonight into Sunday. The latest info suggests a four day rainfall total of 5 plus inches for some areas. That would help flow some water into Lake Lanier for sure. Here is an example on how important run off in the basin can be. This morning both Allatoona Lake and Lake Lanier reported a rise in the level. We have not had any rain in the past week and yet run off continues to spill into the lake. Get ready for numerous watches and warnings over the next several days. I am expecting a flood watch and then possible severe t-storm warnings on Thursday and again late Friday into Saturday. Please be weather aware and check back often for forecasts and updates. Peace.

Monday March 23

Exciting weather later this week.

Looking down the road, our March weather is about to turn turbulent. With blizzard warnings in the great plains and our temps in the 70s, you know some exciting weather is heading our way. The scenario is a front comes our way mid-week bringing us a rain chance, the front stalls, keeping the rain chance around thru Thursday and into Friday. Projected rainfall rates exceed 2-3 inches in many areas. Then the front heads north as a warm front, juicing up our atmosphere for a second front by the weekend. That event could bring us some severe weather. Still several days out, but the set-up demands our attention.

Didn’t fair too well with my basketball bracket this weekend. While I have all eight of my elite eight teams still alive, I took quite a beating in the two early rounds. I hope you enjoyed the weekend weather like I did, softball on Saturday, and then golf on Sunday afternoon. The sky on Sunday was a brilliant blue, just a reminder of who is in charge. Peace.

Friday March 20

Spring off to a cool start.

Stable and cool weather will be the rule this weekend. A huge area of high pressure will cover the eastern half of the U.S. with the core of the cold air off to our north and east. There is a slight chance that some areas in North Georgia could awake Saturday morning to patchy light frost, but most areas will be frost free as the air will be really dry. High temps will hang out in the 60s into the new week, with the next chance for rain not until mid-week. I still think its too early to do any spring planting, another cold snap is likely before Easter (April 12th).

Enjoy the weekend with family and friends, I will. Peace.

Thursday March 19

Bye Bye winter (officially) and let's go Pitt.

The vernal equinox occurs at 7:44 tomorrow morning signaling the beginning of spring in the Northern Hemisphere. At that moment the sun will be directly over the equator. Pretty cool stuff on how the tilt of the earth’s axis has such an impact on our seasons and ultimately our weather. It appears the first few days of spring will be very quiet weatherwise, but I will be watching the possibility of some frost come Saturday morning. Like I have been saying, the cold of winter is not done yet. You can expect several more threats of freezing temps before April 15th.

I spent this morning shooting a segment for our upcoming severe weather special. Glenn, Karen, Brad and I will be showing you how to protect and prepare your family for severe weather. The show will be very informative and we will showcase our weather equipment here in Severe Weather Center 2. No one can match our tools or experience.

In case you are wondering, my final four is Michigan St., UConn, Pitt and UNC. With Pitt winning it all.

Wednesday March 18

So what's with the clouds and drizzle? and filling out my bracket.

Low level moisture trapped by warmer temps aloft can make a mess of the forecast. This is a case where the elevation of Atlanta and surrounding areas come into play. We sit nearly 1000 feet above sea level, so an east wind will pile up the cool damp air from the Atlantic along the foothills of the mountains. At about 3000 feet, the wind flow is out of the southwest and its warmer, so it traps the cooler air below, we call that an inversion. This time of year the sun angle and duration of daylight will erode the inversion, it just takes several hours. In the higher elevations of the North Georgia mountains, there is no inversion and sunshine rules, so at Noon, the warmest temps were around Blairsville. I am still looking for the 70s tomorrow.

Have you done your basketball brackets yet? Its always a challenge to pick just the right teams at the right time. I won the office pool many years ago thanks to Christian Laettner and the Duke Blue Devils. Here is how I do my bracket, I go game by game and then come up with a champion. I will let you know my picks tomorrow. Peace.

Tuesday March 17

A drier pattern and why isn't there a "quiet" drill?

The weekend rain was welcomed, 2-3 inches on average around the metro area, but now its time to dry out. Plenty of sunshine under the dome of high pressure this afternoon and highs will reach the upper 60s and low 70s. I am expecting some patchy fog by early Wednesday morning, quickly burning off with sunshine by late morning. A cold front will usher in a slight chance for showers on Thursday with cooler and drier air set for Friday. The latest run of extended models has a big cold snap the end of the next week. I have been telling you that winter is not done.

I went to the dentist this morning to replace a filling. I appreciate the fact my gums can be numbed so I feel no pain while parts of my tooth are being drilled. However, I wonder with all of the medical marvels of the past 30 years, why can’t there be a “quiet” drill. I can’t feel the drilling going on, but I can hear it. You know the sound, the high pitched squeal that makes my toes curl and tells my mind that this really hurts if not for the drugs. Imagine how pleasant the dentist experience would be if you couldn’t hear the drill. It bothers me even when its going on in the room next to me. I am blessed to have nice teeth, so I am not complaining, just wondering. Peace.

Monday March 16

This type of rain is beneficial and it will be getting warmer.

Yes it has been dreary the past few days, but it’s been nice to see a good soaking rain. Some areas of North Georgia are still in a drought, mainly east and northeast of Atlanta toward the South Carolina line. A cool light to moderate rain, means more of the water can soak in the ground and not run off nor be evaporated. Area lakes and reservoirs are doing quite well, except for Lake Lanier which is in a league of its own. Still, Lanier is at its highest level since Oct. 1, 2007. As we see temps this week nearing 70, watch how the grass will turn greener and the flowering trees will start popping out.

While I don’t think we are done with freezing temps, I do not see any cold snaps the rest of the month. Notice how our average high temp has now reached 65 and will continue to increase a degree every three days. I love this time of year and can’t wait for summer. Peace.

Thursday March 12

Rainy days and remembering some wild weather.

Here comes your rainy days. We have all put things off for a rainy day, well this weekend is your time to get those things done. The risk for t-storms is nil, and the rain will be light, but steady, so flooding will not be an issue. I am looking at 1-2 inches through Sunday with isolated heavier amounts. With the east wind, temps will hold in the 40s and 50s, with little range from morning to afternoon..

This weekend marks the anniversary of two wild weather events for metro Atlanta. March 13, 1993 was the date the “Blizzard of 93” hit, and of course March 14th a year ago, downtown Atlanta was hit by a tornado. I cannot believe the blizzard was 16 years ago. You want to have an unsettling feeling? Think where you will be 16 years from now. Time flies, so enjoy each day, cherish family, friends, and nurture those relationships. Peace.

Wednesday March 11

What is the "wedge"?

You will hear us (Glenn, Karen, Brad, and me) talk this week about the “wedge”. This is a weather phenomenon that brings North Georgia unpleasant weather. The official term is “cold air damming” or “CAD”. Cool moist air from the Atlantic gets trapped near the surface by warm, moist air above from the Gulf of Mexico. The result is temperatures holding in the 40s and periods of showers and drizzle. Once the CAD sets up, it usually sticks around and that means our computer model guidance will be wrong. Other than snow and ice, the wedge, is the most difficult weather event to forecast. I do some beneficial rain this weekend and that would be the good news for all.

Speaking of good news, we really need some. Working in this business can be a downer. You have seen the headlines on this website; the guy that shoots 10 in Alabama, the student that kills 16 in Germany, the unemployment rate continues to climb..etc. Keep in mind those stories are what defines news..news would be the extra-ordinary, the odd, the unusual. Hopefully your life today was pretty mundane and you can go home, kiss your wife, hug your kids and pet the dog. That’s my plan. Peace.

Tuesday March 10

Spring fever and good news about spring break.

I love temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s. Isn’t that just about perfect? Well enjoy today and most of tomorrow because a weather change is coming. The shift from spring back to winter will be uncomfortable for some, but nothing real drastic. Parts of Texas and Louisiana will get soaked over the next 5 days with several inches of rain, boy we could use that. Yesterday Athens tied their record high for the date at 84, last hit in 1974.

Spring fever goes higher as students and families head for “spring break”. Many of the area colleges and universities are out now and over the next several weeks. Most metro schools will be off the second week of April. I was pleasantly surprised to find a positive article in the Gainesville Times today on some Vermont college students who spend spring break serving others. I know this happens and I believe the numbers are growing, but all too often the media focuses on the party kids and not those doing good works. Enjoy the story and with young adults like these, I have hope for our nation. Peace.

http://www.gainesvilletimes.com/news/article/15902/

Monday March 9

Pleasant temperatures and positive press.

I hope you enjoyed the wonderful weather this weekend. With today’s anticipated high in the mid 70s, it will be the 4th day in a row that we topped 70 degrees. The last time that happened was the first week of November. Yes, days like this give all of us spring fever, but don’t think for a minute that winter is done. We have not seen the last of freezing temps, but the real cold days of winter are behind us. I am looking forward to some rain chances by the end of the week as a front will stall across North Georgia. Right now the rainfall potential is not all that impressive.

Many thanks to the folks at the Gwinnett Citizen for writing the article about me and my colleague Karen Minton. You can check it out here: http://www.gwinnettcitizen.com/ I know its supposed to be bad for you, but I do enjoy getting some sunshine on my face. I do use some SPF, but I feel better with natural color. Peace.

Friday March 6

The downside of sunny and warm weather.

We are finally seeing a weekend of splendid weather, with plenty of sunshine and really warm temperatures. Quite the contrast to last weekend’s snow event. Here is the problem with the tranquil weather, fewer people watch television news. It’s a fact, when the weather turns nice, folks head to the outdoors. So your assignment this weekend is to enjoy the pleasant weather, but check back in to Actions News for updates. If you are on the go, log on to our website and wsbtv.com/mobile. We are expecting some rain chances next week, but it looks like the mild temps will hang around for awhile. Peace.

Thursday March 5

A big bad case of spring fever.

There will be an epidemic of spring fever this weekend. Your assignment is to get outside and soak in the sun and warmth. However, don’t get too carried away, we have several more cold snaps to go before we close a book on the winter of 08/09. The other day I wrote on the power of the sun and how shady spots in NE Georgia were still hanging on to Sunday’s snow. Here it is Thursday and there are many spots in Clarke, Barrow, Oconee, and Madison counties where the snow still blankets the ground.

I am still looking at a wonderful forecast for all the race fans heading to Atlanta Motor Speedway for a weekend of “circle” racing. Here’s hoping the Georgia boys do well. For me, its up to Gainesville for a Saturday full of girls fast pitch softball. Peace.

Wednesday March 4

Come on 70s, a lot happening this weekend.

The big time warm up is still on for the end of the week and into the weekend. This is great news for my friends down at Atlanta Motor Speedway. This is race weekend, culminating with the NASCAR race on Sunday afternoon. Over 100,000 folks will find their way to Henry county to watch guys do plenty of left turns. The March race weekend has been plagued by nasty weather, if it hasn’t been nasty (Blizzard of 93) it certainly has been “iffy” (cool with spotty showers). Well not this year. It will be perfect for qualifying on Friday, the truck race on Saturday and then the big race on Sunday. Check my video forecast on this web page for updates.

Did you know that Lake Lanier is at its highest level since October 9, 2007. It is higher now than at anytime last summer. Remember Lanier is a very large lake with a really small basin. So it takes a lot to fill it back up and I think that won’t happen until next winter. Peace.

Tuesday March 3

Power of the sun, lessons from the "Bachelor"

Have you noticed the snow melt patterns? Where the sun shined, the snow on the ground and roofs was quickly erased. However, any north facing slopes and shady spots, the snow remained, ah the power of solar energy. That is a great example of why you can have snow melt with the temperature below 32 degrees. Looks like one more cold night ahead and then the arctic air retreats and is replaced by “normal” March air. How wonderful will the 70s feel this weekend? Time for fastpitch softball..my favorite time of year.

I live in a house full of women, yes I am blessed, but the older I get, the less I know. This whole ABC Bachelor show and phenomenon is a hot topic at my house. The consensus is that Jason is “tool” and the remaining young ladies should run from him. My house is not alone in watching this train wreck of a relationship. The ratings are huge and ABC knows it, that’s why another update show is set for tonight. My lesson learned is that women will band together in their distaste for the “tool”, but somehow give the other ladies a free pass for their behavior in this bizarre affair. Peace.

Monday March 2

Southern Snow aftermath, spring is ahead!

Nothing like a little snow in the south , it brings out the best and worst in folks..more so than any other weather event. I have been forecasting weather in Georgia since 1984 and snow/sleet/ice is by far the most difficult to get right. Here is the major problem. When I say that areas of North Georgia will see 1-2 inches of snow, with isolated higher amounts, people only hear “higher amounts”. Our Sunday snow is a classic example with folks in the mountains and NW Georgia seeing only a few flakes, while the east metro area got hammered. 7 inches of snow for Madison and 6.5 for Athens is a bunch of snow. Overall I would say that Severe Weather Team 2 did a great job with this event and that comes from our southern snow experience.

Look for a great thaw the next several days with temps by the end of the week into the 70s. Enjoy. Peace

Thursday 2-26

Heavy rain, strong storms and snow!!!

Alright folks, the forecast will be very fluid over the next 3 days. Each model run will be different and the forecast will change, but no doubt North Georgia will experience heavy rain, a few strong t-storms and then a mix of rain and snow on Sunday. The devil is in the details and it’s what I love about meteorology. Right now my biggest concern is the threat of flooding rain on Friday and Friday night. Some areas could see 2-3 inches plus. Training is likely, that is heavy rain falling on areas that have already seen heavy rain (like train cars running over the same track). I feel the tornado threat is low, but strong winds are likely. Several waves of rain will move over our area into Saturday and then an upper level low spins our way. These systems bring their own cold air and it appears the air will be cold enough to support accumulating snow. Wow..check back often for updates. Peace.

Wednesday 2-25

Its back....the drought continues.

New information today from the state’s climatologist David Stooksbury; the drought has returned to some parts of North Georgia. Rainfall totals are well below the average for the past two months and therefore most of metro Atlanta is back in a moderate drought. We had removed the drought label from many counties the first of the year, now we have to be concerned for the rest of the winter and into the spring. This is the recharge period for our area lakes and so far the rainfall has been slim. Only NW Georgia is still seeing drought improvement.

I do think our upper level weather patterns will allow for periods of rain over the next two weeks. This will help the drought situation, but only minimally. Peace.

Tuesday 2-24

Fat Tuesday is still chilly for me

I have never understood the whole mardi gras thing, but then there is a lot I don’t know. What I do know is that a warming trend is coming our way as the arctic high slips to the east and our wind flow turns southerly. While today is chilly with highs below the norms, the end of the week will be warm with highs in the 60s. I do see some rain in here by Friday and if the front stalls over us, that means wet weather for the weekend. Right now the storm potential is really slim..just rain this time around.

Spring is less than a month away, officially, but in my mind its closer than that. The Braves actually play a game on Wednesday down at spring training and that is my sign that the seasons are a changing. Baseball and golf are the two greatest sports in the land.

Monday 2-23

Back in the weather center, fresh from the "man-cation".

After a refreshing break with several days of golf, its back in the severe weather center and tracking some cold air. All is quiet from last week’s round of storms as an area of high pressure (it’s the H on the maps) is covering the eastern U.S. and that means fair weather with chilly temps. Our lows are running about 10 degrees below the average and I do see a warm up by the end of the week. Next chance for showers (no storms) will be Friday night into Saturday morning. The spring storms will return, you can count on that.

The “man-cation” was a success as seven guys played golf from sunup to sundown and shared plenty of laughs. In today’s world, it sure is therapeutic to laugh with good friends. I am blessed. Peace.

Tuesday 2-17

Active weather on Wednesday, then its the "man-cation".

I am looking for some areas of North Georgia to get soaked pretty good over the next 24 hours. While most of us have pulled out of the drought, it has been dry and rain events like the one on Wednesday will help battle the rainfall deficit. We have a marginal risk of severe storms, the main threat will be damaging winds. The long range pattern calls for a cool down and then another shot of wet weather this weekend. Several more storm risks next week as an active weather flow will persist.

It’s time for this meteorologist to take a break from weather maps and concentrate on my golf game. The long awaited “man-cation” is about to begin. Eight good friends, playing a lot of golf, eating a lot of food, and sharing plenty of stories. Glenn, Karen and Brad will monitor the severe weather center, see you on the 22nd. Peace.

Friday 2-13

More rain for the metro area.

Another fast moving weather disturbance is racing toward Georgia that means some areas will get soak, and others will only see a splash and dash. My job is to try and figure out where the dividing line will be. Right now the thinking is still a bigger rain event for the south metro area and less rainfall amounts north of I-20. The rain should be gone by lunch time on Saturday, but the clouds look a little more stubborn than yesterday. Seasonal temps will rule this weekend, not as warm as its been the past several days.

Enjoy the weekend and doing something nice for your Valentine. It doesn’t have to be a big gesture, just something

Thursday 2-12

An active pattern for the next 10 days..at least

Yesterday was frustrating in my world of meteorology. As we discussed, a very dynamic system was headed our way and wind was to be the big story. There was very little in the way of lightning and thunder, and there was too much shear (winds turning direction with height) with very little instability. But for some reason the Storm Prediction Center gave us a tornado watch for the western counties, and then gave metro Atlanta a severe t-storm watch. As messengers of that information we relayed that to you the viewers. That doesn’t mean I have to agree with it. I am still baffled on how we can have a severe t-storm watch when the “storms” are producing no lightning. Hmmm. We did have rotation with a “storm” in Troup county that Glenn and Brad tracked, but no reports of ever a tornado. In fact, there were just a few trees knocked down in North Georgia and most of those were due to the strong southerly winds. No storms.

It is less than a week until the man-cation. This is an annual golf trip with 7 guys where we play golf from sunup to sundown. It is a little slice of heaven. Peace.

Wednesday 2-11

On the verge of severe weather.....

If this was April, today would be a big time day for severe weather. Fortunately it is February and the instability is low, so the tornado risk in minimal. Some areas may see some wind damage as some really strong mid level winds may work their way down to the surface. Look out in the mountains for gusts topping 50 mph. As advertised, the air behind the front is Pacific in nature, so no real cool down. The death toll from the Oklahoma tornadoes will probably rise, that is sad. So far it’s been a quiet year for severe weather when compared to the last two. That trend may change looking ahead to March and April.

Tuesday 2-10

Spring temps give way to spring showers and speaking of early.....

A very dynamic weather system will develop overnight and move into the nation’s mid section. The real energy of this storm will be north of Georgia, but we will watch a squall line roll in from Alabama tomorrow afternoon. The real threat will be gusty damaging winds, we will know more once everything materializes. That’s the cool thing about meteorology, forecasting events with elements not yet developed.

Right now our long range pattern has put winter on hold, but don’t start going crazy with thinking outdoor planting..much too early. Speaking of early, I always try to be wherever I go. In fact it’s a life lesson I have passed on to my daughters. They have heard me say time and time again “if you are on time..you are late” Think about it. That’s why I love the business of television. The Noon news starts at noon..not 12:03 or 12:10. Like anything in life, practice being early and it becomes a habit. Peace.

Monday 2-9

A reprieve from winter, for now.

Don’t think for a minute that winter is done..its not. But do get out and enjoy the mild to warm weather over the next several days. I am watching a system out to our west that will bring us some showers and t-storms by Wednesday. The dynamics are such that a few of the storms on Wednesday could have damaging winds, I’ll keep you posted.

I am in this week for Karen Minton on Action News this morning. She is taking a much deserved vacation. I will say that working that shift takes a special personality. My body is not made to get up in the middle of the night and come to work, and it still amazes me how many people are out and about at 3 in the morning. What makes the morning bearable you ask? Working with such nice people, like Fred and Carol, and the morning crew of Joe, Marcus, Suzanne, Leah and Mark. 9 more days until the man-cation. Be nice to someone today..Peace.

Friday 2-6

Finally a February thaw.

Your assignment this weekend is to get outside and soak in some sunshine. I feel like we all have been shut-ins with the arctic outbreaks since the first of the year. The pattern change will hang around for 7 to 10 days and that means above normal temps into next week. Have you noticed the average high temps for Atlanta is now up to 55 and the sunset is getting a little later. Tonight its 6:14 and it stretches out just about a minute a day until June.

Yesterday was National Weatherperson's Day and the fine folks at Blue Bell Ice cream brought some of their goodies to me and Karen Minton. We shared several flavors with our collegues in the newsroom. It is amazing how a little ice cream can put a smile on so many faces. It was like being kids again and having the ice cream man drive through the neighborhood and giving you a push pop, ice cream sandwich, or cone. Thanks Blue Bell, you brightened the day of journalists. Enjoy your weekend, tune in Brad Nitz and take a moment to smile at someone..and then watch their reaction. See you on Monday..Peace.

Thursday 2-5

The spring/summer bug update and friendship through fate.

After checking with Curly my bug man, here is what I know about the frigid cold and bugs. Right now, even with below normal temperatures, the bugs and bug eggs (we are talking mosquitos, gnats, flys, termites, roaches) can survive. They are protected well from the elements in the winter months. Curly says a hard freeze (lows in the 20s) in the spring, March and April, would kill the bugs and eggs. So while a killing freeze would cause damage to young crops, it would greatly reduce the summer bug population.

One year ago today a powerful tornado hit the campus of Union University in Jackson, TN. It hit at 7:02pm with 180-200 mph winds. While this storm did produce fatalities elsewhere, not one of the 3600 students at this Baptist school was killed. Why? Because the school has a tornado warning system and has practiced a tornado drill with the students. Both exercises worked as 80% of the dorms were destroyed. I traveled to Jackson after the twister and admist the chaos of upside down cars, destroyed dorms and a campus in shock, I came across two young ladies from Georgia. Hannah and Katie were from Barrow county and I was the first familiar face from "home" that they saw. At that moment I became more of Dad than a reporter. I wondered what my own daughters would need at that moment..my answer and hug and a prayer. A friendship was formed and then I told their story on how they heeded the warnings, took shelter and rode out the storm. Tonight on Action News at 5pm we catch up with college seniors and talk about what they learned from such an experience. I know I learned that fate and friendship are often woven together and my life is richer for it. Peace.

Wednesday 2-4

This is just too dang cold, but no bugs for spring.

Enough of the arctic cold, it can retreat back to the northlands. Word has it, this extreme cold weather with long periods down below freezing, can reduce the bug population in the spring and summer. I have a call into my bug man and will give you his answer later. In the meartime forecasting such an expansion of cold dense air is challenging. Whenever the temperatures get 20 degrees below (or above) the normals, the computer model algorithms that I use don't handle it very well. For example the low this morning was supposed to be in the low 20s for Atlanta, but we hit 16, therefore the afternoon high will be below the prediction as well. Ah science. Here is my thought for the day. So if our highly complex computer models can't grasp a two day period, why do some put so much emphasis on what will happen 10-20 or even 100 years from now. While you digest that, think about this..its severe weather awareness week. Your assignment today is to have a tornado safety plan for your family. I will share a great story tomorrow about how a plan put into action saves lives. In the meantime, its now 2 weeks until the man-cation. Peace.

Tuesday 2-3

Please know the difference....

It is severe weather awareness week. On the air each day you will see reports on how to respond to severe weather. Please, please, please learn the difference between a WATCH and a WARNING. Here it is simply. A watch means be on the lookout. A warning means the event is happening and its time to act. A watch gives you time to plan. A warning says act now. Most of the people hurt or killed in severe weather don't know the difference and then don't know what to do. Did you know that more people are killed in floods each year than by tornadoes..why? because they think they can drive through water they have no business driving through. One of the biggest advances in my weather career has been the ability to warn people when severe weather threatens. The lead time is far greater now than 25 years ago. But you have to heed the warnings.

Here comes the cold...again..I hate it, a pattern shift will warm us big time by the weekend, but until then bundle up. Is there no greater sport than golf? I love a game where you can call a penalty on yourself..think about it. Peace.

Monday 2-2

Groundhog day...rodent vs. meteorologist

The groundhog reports mean nothing..not based on science but somehow they get a lot of press. No one ever remembers the predicitions, but there they are on the nightly news. For the record General Lee in Georgia saw no shadow, so an early spring. Phil in Penn. saw his, so the folks up there are saying 6 more weeks of winter. well duh.. the spring or the vernal equinox is March 20th. that is a fact.

Get ready for another shot of arctic air by mid-week. I am ready for a break and it looks like one for the weekend. I am a warm weather, love humidty kind of guy. Cold weather and I do not get along. When temps top 60 in the winter, I say we cheated winter another day. Oh and pitchers and catchers report in less than 3 weeks. Peace.

Friday 1-30

Tracking a storm that hasn't formed yet!

One of the coolest things about meteorology is trying to predict something will happen, when that something (the low) hasn't even formed yet. That is the challenge this weekend. Right now there is still a winter weather threat for North Georgia will the accumulating snow confined to area well north of Atlanta..sorry snow folks. However I believe we will see some flakes here and of course it will turn cold on Monday night into Tuesday. My friend Brad Nitz will have lots to talk about this weekend so please tune him in. For me this weekend will mean girls basketball (Go Panthers) girls softball (Go Rage), church, maybe some golf on Sunday and of course tuning into the big game. I'll be back on Monday and by then we will have a firm grasp on the winter storm. Peace.

Thursday 1-29

What I know about snow..

There is no other weather element (tornadoes are a close second) like snow to fire up the conversation. And no matter what we actually say, people hear what whey want to hear..even in my own building! Here is what I know right now...there will be a low forming in the gulf. there will be really cold air coming our way Monday night into Tuesday and lasting into Wednesday. I know that some areas in the southeast will get snow. I know that Atlanta will start with rain. Timing of a changeover to snow and snowfall amounts are still uncertain. My collegue Brad Nitz will have tons of fun this weekend showing you the new model data. And to answer the question, no I do not have stock in Kroger or Publix! In addition to winter weather coverage next week, we are also gearing up for severe weather awareness week. Today I talked to two young ladies from Barrow county that go to school at Union University in Jackson, TN. You may recall that school was hit hard by a F-4 tornado last year. I covered the story, fate brought me to Hannah and Katie who were scared after riding out the twister in their dorm room. I did a story on them then and we have forged a friendship since. Check out their update next week. Peace.

Wednesday 1-28

Crank up the snow watch

Yes its 5 days away, but looking at weather data that could bring us some snow sure is fun. Right now its the classic set up for North Georgia. A deep area of low pressure forming in the gulf, moving to the NE and tapping gulf moisture. We will also have really cold air sliding in from the north and staying for a while. What I am saying is that Monday night and Tuesday could be quite interesting. Forecasting snow in Georgia is to me the most challenging. T-storms and tornadoes are a breeze compared to the "s" word. On another note, I am just three weeks away from my man-cation. More on that later. Peace.

Tuesday 1-27

That is one heck of an ice storm to our north and west. There is a glaze stretching from Oklahoma City to West Virginia. Some places in Kentucky have 6 inches of snow and then 30 miles south it is nothing but ice. How about that wedge for NE Georgia..it just hangs around. A wedge is cool damp air trapped at the surface by the foothills of the mountains and warm air over the top. Right now Gainesville is 46, while Rome (out of the wedge) is 66. In fact it is warmer in Blairsville than Gainesville. Get ready for another shot of cold air by Friday and then the weekend looks dry. Let's watch next Monday really carefully, I don't like what I am seeing on the latest model run. I will just leave it at that and check back tomorrow. Here is something I learned today. As you know the Peachtree Plaza hotel (the tall round one) was hit by the March tornado. It lost 1000 windows. all of the gust room windows have not been replaced..the reason..waiting on all new windows for the whole building..wow. I will have more on that on some severe weather awareness reports next week. Peace.

Monday 1-26

Can you bring us some snow? I get that question at resturants, church, the ball fields, and even here at work. I am amazed on how many people here in the south would like to see snow, while our northern friends would like to see less of it. There are two types of southern snows we see here in Georgia. The cold air in place with a low pressure area moving out of the gulf brings us our accumulating snow. The other snow machine that brings us flurries, snow showers and a dusting of snow (its also more common) is the the cold air wringing out all the moisture it can. I see this happening on Wednesday in extreme north Georgia and I see the former possibly happening the first week of Feburary. Check back for updates as I am watching the models closely.